“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Thirsty Pappy
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Thirsty Pappy produced a significant forward move (as expected) after being transferred from the Walther Solis barn to trainer Peter Miller, and while no match for easy winner Devil Among Us in a fast, highly rated sprint at Los Alamitos, he wound up more than three lengths clear of the others in an effort that should have him primed and ready another forward move in his first try on turf and his first around two turns. The sophomore gelding seems certain to be the controlling speed from his favorable rail draw, and with the addition of Lasix the son of Stay Thirsty has much in his favor. At 5/2 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Parco
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Parco hardly is a world beater but may look like one in this bottom-rung maiden claiming main track miler for older fillies and mares. In a race that offers no viable alternative, the daughter of Super Saver projects to be a shorter price than her 5/2 morning line following in the money finishers in each of her last three starts, most recently pressing a hot pace before weakening late in a race that was much stronger than the one she’s in today. She’s a play at anywhere near her morning line of 5/2 but we suspect she’ll go lower.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Forgiving Spirit; 1-Beaudacious
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Forgiving Spirit stretches out for the first time in this first-level state-bred allowance turf miler and his pedigree suggests he’ll be better routing than sprinting. The 4-year-old gelding is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course around one corner, and after finishing off the board with trouble last month at Del Mar the Peter Miller-trained runner should step forward in a big way against this group at this trip. Flavian Prat stays aboard and should have this son of Shaman’s Ghost within striking range throughout. Beaudacious does his best work on the front end and seems certain to attempt gate-to-sire tactics from his favorable inside draw, though Little Nas may have something to say about that. He should be fitter and sharper in this, his second start off a long layoff, and after shaking the rust off in a quick five turf tightener at Del Mar last month the Ryan Hanson-trained veteran may be able to take this field on the front end for quite aways if he’s not pressured early.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Clooney
Backups/Savers:
Forecast: 3-Clooney plummets from the straight maiden ranks to this maiden $40,000 claimer in just his third career start after bringing $760,000 as a yearling at Keeneland, so his connections are clearly culling him from the stable. However, at this level, the recently-gelded son of City of Light appears to have found his friends after chasing home infinitely tougher foes in his first two races. With the switch to Flavian Prat, the Tim Yakteen-trained sophomore is listed at 8/5 on the morning line and looks that price by default. In a race that probably should be left alone, you can use him as a no-value, short-priced rolling exotic single, or simply skip it altogether.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Flint Stroll
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Flint Stroll was privately sold by his prior owners to trainer Phil D’Amato after finishing third in a tougher starter’s allowance turf miler in November at Del Mar. At this level, the son of Flintshire should be capable of a quick return on investment in this restricted (nw-2) $32,000 seller over nine furlongs on grass. A prior winner over this course and distance, the 5-year-old gelding has several speed figures that are better than par for this level, so with Flavian Prat staying aboard we’re expecting a lower price that the listed morning line of 5/2. Arrest is worth using as a saver. The Skipshot gelding is competitive on numbers, lands the good rail, and has hit the board in his last pair.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Ice Dancing
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: With the anticipated scratch of Justique, this year’s edition of the Santa Ynez Stakes-G3 looks made to order for Ice Dancing. The Richard Mandella-trained filly is fresh from a clever maiden win that produced a career top speed figure, and she is likely to continue her improving pattern at this extended sprint distance that compliments her stalking style. From her cozy outside draw, Flavian Pratt can dictate whatever trip he chooses and then push the button when he deems appropriate. We’ll make her a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Excelia; 1-Princess Bettina; 7-Arinniti
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Excelia shows the speed/fade, route-to-sprint angle that always catches our eye in these Hillside turf sprints. She was strictly a sprinter as a 2-year-old last year in Ireland, so this turn back in trip is what she almost certainly needs to regain her best form. Ramon Vasquez stays aboard, and with the addition of Lasix the Phil D’Amato-trained sophomore seems a solid top pick. Additionally, she’s looked quite good in the morning since raced, another positive factor. Princess Bettina will have to negotiate a decent trip from her rail draw, but if she can find room to rally from the top of the lane to the wire the daughter of Will Take Charge almost certainly will be heard from late. She’s a fit on speed figures and has clearly found a home on grass. Arinniti is an Irish invader making her U.S debut for Richard Mandella and has form overseas that should make a fit at this level on this circuit. Her Timeform ratings are respectable, so at 5-1 on the morning line she has to be included somewhere on your ticket.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Speed Boat Beach
Backups/savers: 2-Naitonal Treasure
Forecast: Four of the six entrants in this year’s renewal of the Sham Stakes-G3 hail from the Bob Baffert barn, so the race shape in this one mile main track affair is pretty much in his hands. Speed Boat Beach almost certainly will employ front-running tactics while his three stable mates are allowed to settle in behind the speedy colt and wait to launch their bids from the top of the lane to the wire. A track record holder in his only prior dirt outing, ‘Beach most recently won a stakes over this distance at Del Mar on grass, but very likely is even more effective on the main track. He’ll get his chance to prove that theory today. National Treasure finished a highly respectable third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-G1 and before that was a strong runner-up in the American Pharoah S.-G1 over the local main track, so he could easily go favored based on resume. The son of Quality Road is removing blinkers for this race, indicating that rating tactics surely will be employed. If so, ‘Treasure may have a hard time catching Speed Boat Beach.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Lincoln Hawk; 7-Mecklenburg; 4-Avenue
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Given the projected race shape, which indicates the early fractions will be at least decent if not fast, Lincoln Hawk should have every chance to produce a winning late kick in this nine furlong allowance optional claimer over nine furlongs on grass. First or second in four of six outings over the Santa Anita turf course, the Irish-bred gelding in fast on numbers, picks up Flavian Prat, and with good racing luck and some help up front should be along in time. Mecklenburg is likely the controlling speed and is dangerous again after finishing third in the same race our top pick finished second in at Del Mar last month. He’s been pretty much a miler throughout his career, and it will be interesting to see if he can carry his speed this far if left alone on the front end. Avenue is a marathoner by trade but has won at a mile and one-eighth in the past and will be rolling late. He’s got a touch of class and must be considered a major player.
