“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: X
Use (in order of preference): 1-Big Clare; 4-Feeling Grazeful
Forecast: Big Clare (TOC=8/5; ML=7/5) never has been big on winning (she’s one-for 11 with five seconds), so at 7/5 on the morning line the P. D’Amato-trained filly isn’t particularly attractive in this state-bred first-level allowance turf miler. However, there’s not much else to work with in this five-runner affair. She’s guaranteed a ground-saving stalking trip from her rail post under F. Prat, so she’s likely to get more play than she deserves. Pace players will look at Feeling Grazeful (TOC=5/2; ML=9/5) as the obvious controlling speed, but she’s considerably slower on speed figures than the favorite. You can use Big Clare and Feeling Grazeful in rolling exotic play or better yet just simply pass the race.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:02 PT Grade: X
Use (in order of preference): 3-Big Impact; 4-Big Splash
Forecast: Here’s another race that might be best left alone. Big Impact shows the maiden-to-maiden-claiming angle after finishing a distant second to the nice sprinter Smugglers Run last time out. Not much more will be needed today, but at 8/5 on the morning line there’s little value to be found. Big Splash debuted routing on turf (makes sense as a son of Mr. Big) but was never a factor when chasing home state-bred maiden special weight foes last summer at Del Mar. He returns with a healthy series workouts that should have him plenty fit for this dirt sprint, and in a maiden $50,000 seller that came up light, the T. Yakteen-trained gelding seems well-placed for a much improved effort. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
Notable Workouts:
Big Splash (February 16, Santa Anita, 3f, :35h). Grade: B
In blinkers, let run from the pole and was mildly urged through the lane, splits of :11.1 and :35.1 on our watches, decent blowout for Yakteen. Ran long on the lawn (per pedigree) in debut but might be better suited to sprint on dirt. Likely to improve with a class drop.
View Workout Video
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RACE 3: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 4-Tembo; 2-Black Storm
Forecast: We’ll try to survive using just two in this $20,000 claimer for older horses. Tembo, (TOC=5/2; ML=4-1) in his first start following a M. Glatt claim for this price, picks up F. Prat, so there is every expectation that the lightly-raced 5-year-old gelding will produce a forward move. Interestingly, he’s never sprinted in his career, but this extended sprint distance just might be ideal for his style. Look for him to be settle early and take hold late. Black Storm (TOC=3-1; ML=7/2) is an old pro with 10 career wins, including seven over the local main track, and always has to be respected even though he’s being raised two levels following a $12,500 J. Metz claim. On numbers, he’s a fit at this level, so we’ll toss him in.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:10 PT Grade: B+
Single: 4-Limited Heatwave
Forecast: Limited Heatwave was off slowly and raced greenly during the early stages while giving away several lengths, then seemed to get the message and stayed on willingly without threatening to be fourth at 36-1 in a similar turf sprint in his debut last month. The M. Glatt-trained colt – assuming he leaves with his field – seems likely to display much improved early speed, so In a moderate affair in which the other contenders have been exposed, let’s take a shot with this late-developing 4-year-old on top in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single and hope to get close to his morning line of 8-1.
Notable Workouts:
Chipper (February 12, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h TT). Grade: B-
Ridden a bit through the lane but did okay in solo training track drill for Glatt, final three furlongs in :11.3 and :35.4. Been away a year but seems to be coming back well enough. Probably needs turf for his best chance.
View Workout Video
Thrive (February 12, Santa Anita, 4f, :47hg). Grade: C+
Last of three in gate drill inside Mauritius (5f, :59.2hg) and Ganadora (5f, 1:00.4hg) while being ridden throughout, splits of :23.2 and :47.1 on our watches, decent final time but not visually impressive while doing his best throughout. Away since June, was a money burner last year and doesn’t really look much better now.
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Area Code (February 7, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3hg). Grade: B-
Solo gate work for Sadler, was let run and ridden to the top and before being put to strong pressure in the final stages while appearing to lose his steam, splits of :24 flat, :35.3, :47.4 and 1:00.3. Probably nothing special at this stage, at least on dirt.
View Workout Video
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RACE 5: Post: 2:43 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 7-Rain Diva; 5-It’s a Riddle
Forecast: This bottom-rung $10,000 claiming sprint for older fillies and mares probably should be held at Los Alamitos, where several of the entrants are stabled or do most of their racing. Rain Diva (TOC=72; ML=5/2) has won three times in her 12-race career with each of those victories accomplished over the Santa Anita main track. She plummets to her lowest level ever after a series of speed/fade efforts that were disappointing, so her condition is a big question. However, against this band, the M. Glatt-trained mare may get loose and get brave. It’s a Riddle (TOC=4-1; ML=5-1) also sports an excellent record over the local dirt strip, with three wins and three seconds, and likely will inherit a comfortable stalking position and then have every chance from there. In a race that we’re not planning on getting too involved in, these are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play, but not with a great deal of confidence.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:15 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 2-Hollywoodhellraisr; 4-World Cruiser
Forecast: Hollywoodhellraisr, freshened since November and showing up in a maiden $50,000 claimer for the first time, appears to have found a proper spot to graduate. Working well for trainer P. D’Amato (powerful stats with layoff runners), the son of Race Day has numbers that are consistently better than par for this level, is comfortably drawn inside, and gets a break in the weights with the switch to good bug boy D. Herrera. He really shouldn’t blow this chance, but as an eight-race maiden he can’t be considered totally trustworthy. World Cruiser, in the frame at this level in his two most recent outings, is the one to fear most, though based on speed figures he’ll need to step it up to challenge our top pick. The son of Hard Spun shortens to a mile and could be a late threat if he gets some help up front.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:47 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 10-Smitten by Kitten; 7-All Dialed In
Forecast: We’ll double the seventh race, a seven furlong first-level allowance state-bred affair for fillies and mares. Smitten by Kitten (TOC=7/2; ML=5/2) has the proper style for this extended sprint trip, retains F. Prat, and should have every chance to produce the last run. She’s not particularly fast on speed figures, but none of these are, and with just four prior starts the Kitten’s Joy filly may have more room for improvement than the other main players. All Dialed In (TOC=3-1; ML=5-1) demolished a soft state-bred maiden field last month, and with steadily rising numbers she, too, has plenty of room for another forward move or two. The S. McCarthy-trained filly likes to settle early and take hold late and therefore should very much enjoy this distance.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:19 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 3-Barraza; 4-Beeer Can Man; 6-Bran
Forecast: Familiar faces square off in the San Simeon Stakes-G3 over the popular Hillside Turf Course, where proven form over this unique layout takes on added importance in the handicapping process. Barraza (TOC=5/2; ML=2-1) has developed into a genuine and consistent turf sprinter and should be ready for another major effort while seeking his fourth straight victory. He can be effective on the front end or from off the pace, so Johnny V. can assess the pace scenario and pick his spot. It’s not often that you see a $100,000 claim (off B. Baffert) pan out in the long run but this son of Into Mischief certainly has done so for red hot trainer V. Cerin. Beer Can Man (TOC=7/2; ML=5/2) has been transferred to the P. D’Amato barn (from M. Glatt) but we’re expecting the same type of genuine and consistent performance from the tough-as-nails turf specialist. This will be his first try down the hill, but his pace-stalking style should allow him to adapt to it just fine. Bran (TOC=8-1; ML=6-1) needs patient handling and didn’t get it when well-meant in his U.S. debut on New Year’s Day over the flat course in the Joe Hernandez S.-G3. He prefers to settle and make a run, and at 6-1 on the morning line he has a chance to make some noise late at a decent price.
Notable Workouts:
Barraza (February 14, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: B
Ridden aggressively through the lane to be even at the wire outside Ajaaweed (5f, 1:00.3h) for Cerin, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :36.2, solid work. Holds his form, clearly much more comfortable on turf, though.
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Bran (February 11, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h). Grade: B
Went off slowly (:25 flat) but then picked up the pace and was ridden through the lane to finish in good style, up in 1:00.3 on our watches for Sadler. Wants a patient ride, didn’t get it in U.S. debut, probably can improve with a change in tactics.
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Bombard (February 16, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h). Grade: B
Okay drill, nothing flashy, never really asked much while besting Border Town (5f, 1:01h) by more than a length while working from the half mile pole out to the seven furlong pole for Mandella, splits of :23.3, :48.1 and 1:01 flat on our watches. Seems to be coming back well after being freshened since September, obviously much better on grass than dirt.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:51 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Countess Rosina
Forecast: Countess Rosina ran very well in a competitive maiden juvenile filly affair at Newmarket in England last summer, finishing a close fourth of 16, beaten just a length. She makes her U.S. debut for J. Mullins following a string of steady drills and has been fairly impressive in doing so (see below). While she may be best suited eventually over a distance of ground, the daughter of Dandy Man should have enough quality to win over six furlongs and in a race in which the local contingent looks uninspiring, let’s sink or swim with the new face under F. Prat for a barn that generally does quite well with Euro-imports.
Notable Workouts:
Countess Rosina (February 4, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02h TT). Grade: B
Broke off well in front of Vancougar (5f, 1:01.1h TT) and Just About Enoughh (5f, 12:02.2h TT) and held sway through the lane without need of urging, finishing about three-quarters of a length in front, final half mile in :24.3 and :49 flat for Mullins. Ran well in only start last summer at Newmarket and should be plenty fit for a good effort vs. maidens on turf.
View Workout Video
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