“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 2-Sai Con; 10-Quintecents
Forecast: We’ll try to survive and advance using just two in this woefully weak maiden $50,000 turf sprint for older horses. If you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead. Sai Con has a race in January that would bury this group, but he’s always been suspect under pressure in the final furlong despite being quick enough to establish a clear early lead. Freshened for almost two months and training typically well in the interim, the R. Baltas-trained gelding should clear the field as usual, and against this group he might be able to hang on. Quintecents had a run last summer at Los Alamitos in straight maiden company that didn’t amount to much, but he could be a bit better type this time around based on a decent (for this level) gate workout for a barn that does okay with layoff runners. The son of Goldencents should be prominent throughout and have every chance from the quarter pole home. Tread lightly here.
Notable Workouts:
Quintecents (April 30, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4hg). Grade: B-
Not a bad gate work for a maiden-claiming type although no match for Empire Gal (5f, :59hg), ridden along most of the way with splits of :23.4, :35.1, :47.1 and 1:00 flat on our watches for M. McCarthy. Didn’t show much in his only start last summer but returns as a first-time gelding and with Lasix. Maybe worth a small look in a soft spot.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:10 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 1-Dance to the Music; 5-Lady Aces
Forecast: This race clearly boils down to two main players. Both will be short-priced and both are returning off long layoffs, so we’ll double the race in rolling exotic play but otherwise sit it out. Dance to the Music (TOC=7/5; ML=7/5) hasn’t been particularly impressive in her comeback works, but she won her debut last summer despite a moderate work tab so maybe she’s the type that runs better than she works. A distant runner-up in the Del Mar Debutante-G1 after pressing a blazing pace, she returns with Lasix for a barn that has strong stats with comebackers, so we’ll put the daughter of Maclean’s Music on top. Lady Aces (TOC=4/5; ML=8/5), away since finishing a close third in the Indiana Oaks-G3 last July, has done some solid work in the a.m. for P. Eurton, has the benefit of the cozy outside draw, and broke her maiden sprinting on this track a year ago before finishing a respectable runner-up in the Summertime Oaks-G2. She’s a year older than her maiden rival, which isn’t necessarily a plus since she’s required to spot ‘Music eight pounds.
Notable Workouts:
Dance to the Music (April 14, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:14h). Grade: B-
Slightly second best with Bold Endeavor (6f, 1:13.4h) for M. Glatt, final three furlongs in :11.3 and :36.3, under some urging through the lane (workmate going easily) while gearing up for her first start since last fall. May not be the most willing worker but to be honest we were expecting a bit better. Has all of her conditions.
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Lady Aces (April 3, Santa Anita, 4f, :50.1h). Grade: B-
Slow time but looked fine while never being asked in easy half mile breeze, splits of :12.3, :24.4 and :50.1 for P. Eurton. Away since last summer but seems to be returning in good shape.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 8-Barristan the Bold; 6-Fenestra; 9-See Through It
Forecast: This is a highly-contentious starter’s allowance turf sprint over the flat course that offers several possibilities. We’ll use three and hope that’s enough. Barristan The Bold (TOC=5-1; ML=5/2) has won three of his last four starts over the local lawn and there’s every expectation that he’ll fire another big shot today. Best when held up and allowed to produce a late run, the English-bred gelding is fast on numbers and always has been genuine and consistent. With clear sailing in the lane, he’ll be storming home. Fenestra (TOC=5/2; ML=5-1) is a lightly-raced six-year-old gelding with three wins from six career starts. This will be his first try on turf but based on numbers he projects to have a strong pace presence throughout. See Through It (TOC=7/2; ML=4-1), freshened for two months, finished a close second to our top pick under these conditions in January, and a similar effort today puts him the fray. With patient tactics, he should inherit a cozy stalking spot outside and then have his chance when the pressure is turned on.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:15 PT Grade: X
Use (in order of preference: 6-Warren’s Show Bizz
Forecast: Warren’s Show Bizz is gradually improving with racing and with another forward move today should earn her diploma at a fairly short price. A closing second in a similar event last month while four lengths clear of the rest in a race that produced a career-top speed figure, the daughter of Clubhouse Rise gets an extra half furlong to work with today and should make the most of the opportunity. At 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, she’s a logical rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:49 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-Delmona
Forecast: Delmona (TOC=6/5; ML=3-1) performed in good company overseas last year, finishing second in a listed stakes at Deauville when beaten a neck by subsequent Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint S.-G2 winner Twilight Gleaming. Both of her local races this year down the Hillside Course have been excellent, including a game win in a first-level allowance dash in late March. She has been impressive in the a.m. for trainer J. Mullins in the interim, and there is every expectation that she will handle today’s stretch out to a mile. At 3-1 on the morning line, she offers a good gamble in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
Notable Workouts:
Delmona (April 15, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.4h TT). Grade: B+
Went off slowly and easily while breezing and relaxed (:26.1, :38.2h), then was asked to quicken and responded very well, flying home to be up in 1:01.4 (final quarter mile in :23.2). Should stretch out nicely based on this drill. Quality filly for Mullins.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:25 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 2-Busy Paynter; 4-Take a Leap
Forecast: Busy Paynter (TOC=7/5; ML=9/5) seeks her third straight win but is dropping from $20,000 to $12,500, not normally a healthy sign. Perhaps trainer S. Knapp is merely trying to steal a purse, and if so she’ll likely win again, though at 9/5 on the morning line there won’t be much value to be found. For protection, you may want to consider tossing in Take a Leap (TOC=4-1; ML=5/2, a $10,000 claim by the low profile but capable R. Treia last time out. Never worse than second in five career starts over the Santa Anita main track and a threat at any distance, the veteran mare isn’t a fast on numbers as ‘Paynter but will be rolling late and can be dangerous if the favorite fails to fire her best shot.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:37 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 4-Ballet Dancing; 2-Carroll Girl; 11-Snark
Forecast: Ballet Dancing displayed ability in her debut last fall when finishing with interest to be a solid third over this course and distance. She returns off the bench with a series of steady, easy workouts that might leave her a race away from being dead fit, but this $800,000 daughter of Medaglia d’Oro appears to be made of the right stuff and is far better than her 12-1 morning line would indicate. The S. Callaghan barn has had a slow meeting – just 3-for-38 – but maybe this filly can help turn things around. Carroll Girl has finished second in three of five career starts and should win one eventually, though her speed figures have stagnated so perhaps she’s nothing more than what she is. She might be most effective if held up early and allowed to run late. Snark looks very much like the controlling speed based on our pace projection and will take them as far as she can. She’s certainly bred to handle the extra distance and, like we always say, if sprinters are ever going to stay two turns, it most likely will be in their first try.
Notable Workouts:
Ballet Dancing (April 10, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h TT). Grade: B
Looked nice in solo training track breeze for S. Callahan, never asked at any stage and finishing with plenty left, final three furlongs in a sharp :35.4. Showed some run in her debut last fall but was stopped on; has a chance to be a decent type this time around.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:10 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 9-Hopper; 6-Anaheim; 7-Hero Status
Forecast: This is a stronger than average maiden special weight extended sprint, with several lightly-raced or debuting colts in the field that are well-regarded and have plenty of upside. At 6-1 on the morning line, Hopper may offer some good wagering value. The S. McCarthy-trained colt didn’t get the best of runs while in traffic in his debut sprinting on grass but has returned to work much better on dirt while breezing favorably with 10-length maiden debut winner High Connection, surprisingly so since he’s bred strictly for turf top and bottom. His cozy outside draw should allow for an ideal stalking trip and at this seven furlong distance we’re expecting to see considerable improvement from the son of Declaration of War. McCarthy saddles another live item, the debuting Anaheim, a colt by Twirling Candy with a series of good drills that should have him plenty fit (see below). He’s been matching strides with Montebello, a debut winner last summer at Del Mar for B. Baffert after which he was stakes-placed at Saratoga and at Los Alamitos. Hero Status is worth tossing in as well. The son of Flatter ran below expectations when a distant third in his debut in a blazingly fast race (won by Special Ride) and it would be surprising if the M. Glatt-trained colt doesn’t step forward significantly today with that bit of experience behind him.
Notable Workouts:
Virat (May 1, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.2hg). Grade: B
In blinkers, team drill with Johnny Paycheck (same time) and may have been a tad second best though mostly stride-for-stride throughout, split of :24 flat, :35.2 and :47.2, never really asked much. Seems fit enough, has a look vs. maidens in no world beaters show up.
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Anaheim (April 27, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3hg). Grade: B
In blinkers, under a strong hold most of the way while even but perhaps a bit the best over Montebello (same time) for S. McCarthy, splits of:24.2, :36 flat, :48 flat and 1:00.3 before coasting to the wire in 1:13.3, plenty left late. Very nice prospect, for sure, should be live at first asking.
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Hopper (May 1, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.4h). Grade: B
Breezing inside High Connection (same time) for S. McCarthy, splits of :23.2 and :47.3 on our watches, stout hold through the lane (workmate going easily, too, but may have been a tad second best). Didn’t show a whole lot in debut but seems much better than that and figures to improve with experience and (perhaps) and switch to the main track.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:43 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 3-Connie Swingle; 8-Countess Rosina; 1-Gracelund Gray; 7-Gem Mine
Forecast: The contention runs top to bottom in this grass grab bag down the Hillside Course for first-level allowance sophomore fillies. A reasonable case could be made for each of the nine entrants (feel free to buy the race in your rolling exotics), but we’ll try to narrow it down to just four. Connie Swingle (TOC=8/5; ML=5/2) has the best number of the bunch but this will be her first try on grass. As a daughter of Grazen, she should like the lawn and she’s a California-bred stakes winner still eligible to this open condition, so the P. D’Amato-trained filly probably deserves top billing. Countess Rosina (TOC=5/2; ML=4-1) didn’t beat a whole lot in her U.S. debut when breaking her maiden over the flat course but she did it the proper way while displaying an eye-catching late kick to win like a filly who should adore the downhill course. Gracelund Gray (TOC=9-1; ML=5-1) and Gem Mine (TOC=12-1; ML=8-1) finished third/fourth in a similar affair in late March and both have plenty of room for improvement. Both offer middle-price chances and figure to be doing their best work late.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 PT Grade: B+
Use (In order of preference): 4-Constitutionaffair
Forecast: Constitutionaffair (TOC=9/5; ML=7/2) is a four-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and is fresh from a career-top score in a $40,000 claimer over a mile last month. He’s never been tried at today’s nine furlong trip but in his present improving form the added ground shouldn’t be an issue, so we’re fully expecting a similar, if not better performance. A bullet half mile main track drill (:46 4/5) tells us he remains right on edge, so at 7/2 on the morning line there’s good value to be found both in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Constitutionaffair (April 16, Santa Anita, 4f, :46.4h TT). Grade: B+
Smooth as silk in easy solo training track breeze for M. Glatt, final three furlongs in a razor sharp :34.4. Remains on edge, loves the Santa Anita turf course.
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