May 6, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Mas Rapido; 5-Hogmanay
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Mas Rapido is winless in six starts since arriving from England but his numbers are fast and improving and the sophomore should be able to break through soon, perhaps today. The Bob Hess, Jr.-trained gelding projects to enjoy a good stalking trip and then have every chance to seal the deal in this six furlong flat course dash for first level allowance optional claimers. Hogmanay is quite interesting in his U.S. debut for European specialist trainer Phil D’Amato. A winner from 13 rivals in his only outing over an all-weather track at Dundalk last year, the Irish-bred gelding has trained impressively for his local bow and should fire a huge shot for a barn that hits with an impressive 19% with these overseas shippers. Though he’s a “must use,” we’ll give Mas Rapido a slight edge on top while including both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:05 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Strike That; 5-Red Line
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: This extended sprint for starter optional claimers should be slowly run early due to a lack of pace among the six entrants. Strike That, a first-off-the-claim play for a barn that hits at 29% with a significant ROI with this angle, looks like the potential controlling speed, and although moving up ambitiously from $16,000 to this $32,000 level the son of Biondetti has back form that would win and a projected race shape that makes him dangerous in his second start off a long layoff. Redline may be the best of the closing types, though easy early fractions could soften the effectiveness of his late kick. First or second in half of his 14 career starts, the Steve Knapp-trained son of Texas Red has won over this track and distance in the past. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Ready Jet Go; 5-Over Attracted
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast:This starter allowance turf six furlong sprint over the flat course for fillies and mares is a difficult affair in which nothing would surprise. Best advice is to include as many as your budget allows; small ticket player should concentrate on the two listed above. Over Attracted and Ready Jet Go finished two-three in a similar event last month and both should fire good shots right back despite this race being a half furlong farther. The former lacks the early speed that her chief rival is likely to display but can turn it on late, especially if she can get some help up front. The negative for Over Attracted is that she is winless in seven starts over the Santa Anita lawn. Ready Jet Go has finished in the frame in five of eight starts over the local lawn with a one victory, so she may be a bit more trustworthy. Truthfully, they’re tough to separate.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:15 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Blue Cheese Olive; 1-Montana
Backups/Savers: 2-Finally an Eddie
Forecast: Modest maiden $50,000 California-bred claimers sprint six furlongs in a race in which each of the seven entrants finished off the board last time out, so anything goes. Blue Cheese Olive makes the pivotal class drop from straight maiden to maiden claiming and displayed good speed in his debut when finishing second in a race that if repeated should beat this field. However, he was far back in his second start, so his connections drop him to a realistic spot while adding blinkers that hopefully will do some good. The break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Aladoor won’t hurt, either. Montana also is exiting a series of straight maiden events, and in his only prior start at this level last summer at Del Mar he finished a respectable second after leading until close home. On pure numbers, he’s the one our top pick must worry about the most. Finally an Eddie is slow on numbers but is yet another that might improve in this easier spot in his first outing on dirt. He also removes blinkers, so there are reasons to hope for a forward move.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:46 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-An Agent Mistake
Backups/savers: 3-Leisurewear
Forecast: An Agent Mistake prefers to settle early and produce a late kick, and in a race that has plenty of speed signed on the Doug O’Neill-trained filly should have enough pace up front to compliment her closing style. This will be her third start off a layoff, and it should be her best. The daughter of Klimt in strong in the speed figure department and gets an extra furlong to work with today. Leisurewear, in the money in 10 of 14 career outings but with only one win on her resume, has been away since late December but shows a sharp series of recent drills that should have her cranked up and ready. She also gets a break in the weights, but the concern is that her only win was accomplished gate to wire, and she may not have that luxury today with sprinter-stretching-out Hayley Levade drawn inside of her.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:25 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): Tahoe Sunrise; Navy Man
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Tahoe Sunrise graduated at first asking in extra game fashion in a legitimate race for straight maidens. He moves into listed company in this year’s edition of the Lazaro Barrera Stakes but with only three other runners in the field the class hike should be well within his abilities. Navy Man was a fast winner of a maiden dash last month, lands the cozy outside post, and really won’t have to improve much to score right back. Toss out his two route races and his resume is strong and consistent. Furthermore, a bullet :58 3/5 five furlong drill last week (fastest of 36) should have this son of Bolt d’Oro primed for another smasher. With Tahoe Sunrise projecting as the controlling speed, we’ll put him slightly on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:37 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Teena Ella; 7-Fast and Shiny
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Teena Ella won’t ever be as good as her mother (Beholder) but she’s on the verge of becoming a stakes winner, and that’s pretty nice in its own right. A close second in the Angel’s Flight Stakes over this course and distance in late March, the daughter of War Front has speed figures that continue to rise, and with another forward move today the Richard Mandella-trained sophomore should be capable of earning valuable black type in this year’s renewal of the Senorita Stakes-G3. The same filly that just edged her last time out – Fast and Shiny – is back to face her again, but must pick up 2 lbs., for whatever that’s worth. Comfortably drawn outside but perhaps facing a bit more early speed today, the Bob Baffert-trained Bernardini filly seeks her third straight score, and it would hardly be a surprise if she extended her winning streak.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:10 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Winter Falcon; 4-Barsabas
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Winter Falcon makes his first start following a Jonathan Wong claim (a powerful 28% with this angle), is wheeled back at the same $20,000 price, and vans down from Golden Gate Fields for this restricted (nw-3) extended main track sprint. The rail is no bargain, but with a clean break the son of Mizzen Mast should be able to gain a favorable second flight, stalking trip and have every chance from there. He’s run only once on conventional dirt – last summer at Pleasanton – and won from the rail, so maybe this is what he’s always wanted to do. Barsabas, a $25,000 Eddie Truman claim, is another switching surfaces and could perk up on this main track. He’s won on dirt in the past, has several back speed figures that are better than par for this level, and gets a break in the weights after picking up bug boy Aguilar. At 12-1 on the morning line, he’s worth tossing in. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two, but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:43 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Vanzzy; 2-Yes This Time
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Vanzzy has run well at this trip in the past, and in his second start off a long layoff while dropping out of a much tougher graded stakes event the Dan Blacker-trained veteran has a right to produce a significant forward move. He has a prior win over the local lawn, a good stalking style that should produce an ideal, trouble-free trip, and speed figures that can beat this field. Yes This Time always has been a one-paced grinder but he knows where the wire is (six wins from 19 starts) and projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving, second flight trip. A repeat of his solid runner-up performance vs. similar last month makes him the one to fear most.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Taming the Tigress; 1-Ole Silver
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Taming the Tigress has faced nothing but state-bred stakes company in her four races since being claimed for $20,000 last fall and should greatly appreciate this class relief. First or second in 12 of 20 career starts, she’s always been dependable when properly spotted and this seven furlong trip fits her perfectly. She is the likely choice and one to beat. Ole Silver can be dangerous at any distance, and after a clever win from a similar starter allowance field over a mile last month she shortens to seven furlongs and looks tough right back despite her rail draw. The veteran mare is a three-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, shows consistently solid speed figures that fit nicely at this level, and can be effective on the front end or from a second flight, stalking position. ‘Tigress gets the edge on top, but both should be included in your rolling exotics.
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RACE 11: Post: 6:43 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Thorne House
Backups/savers: 8-King Apollo
Forecast: Thorne House has never been worse than second in six career starts and can be counted on for another solid, honest effort in this six furlong turf sprint over the flat course for first-level allowance older horses. He was too far back early in his most recent outing and was simply given too much to do when an unlucky second facing similar foes last month. With clean journey today, he should be hard to beat. King Apollo is worth tossing in as a backup. Third with a less than ideal trip in the same race our top pick exits, the son of Palace Malice is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita grass course and always has been most effective when held up early and allowed to run late. We expect he’ll receive that type of trip from hot riding Kent Desormeaux.
