May 27, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Secrets Told; 3-Princess Adaleigh
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Secrets Told has never been one to trust (20 career starts, two wins, 12 seconds and thirds) but her numbers are solid for this level, she’s won over this turf course in the past, and her recent third place finish in the Camelia Urso Stakes at Golden Gate Fields was better than looked (slow start, moved up willingly, stayed on well). The John Sadler-trained filly returns to the second level allowance ranks and should inherit a comfortable pace stalking position and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. Princess Adaleigh ran very well when losing a toughie in a downhill dash at this level last month and should be equally effective over the flat course. The daughter of Goldencents is lightly raced with plenty of room to improve and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. We’re expecting the winner to be one or the other and will use both in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): She’s My Niece
Backups/savers: 6-Becky’s Dream.
Forecast: This maiden juvenile filly sprint attracted just six entrants of only modest ability, so a little will go a long way. She’s My Niece received a ton of action (even money) in her debut but performed well below expectations when a non-threatening fourth after a slow start and a wide trip. With that bit of experience behind her and the addition of blinkers, the daughter of Hard Spun should produce a significant forward move. Against this group she’s likely to be a very short price once again. Becky’s Dream makes her debut following a series of decent workouts and is comfortably drawn outside. The daughter of City of Lights was a giveaway yearling purchase ($15,000 by a stallion that stands for $60,000), but she’s probably the one to fear most by default. We’ll have tickets including both in rolling exotic play in a race that probably is best left alone.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:08 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Classymademoiselle
Backups/savers: 5-Run for My Honey.
Forecast: Classymademoiselle drops to her lowest level ever in this modest restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming main track miler for fillies and mares and should have no excuses from a good inside draw that will allow her to secure a ground-saving, pace pressing trip. Beaten nine lengths when a distant second as the favorite in a $32,000 seller earlier this month after a rugged start, the daughter of Malibu Moon deserves another chance against this below average group, though at 9/5 on the morning line she won’t be offering much wagering value. Run for My Honey, a one-paced, grinding type, stretches out again after finishing a fair fourth sprinting at this level three weeks ago in her first outing since December. She’s hit the board in 10 of 15 starts and seems like a logical exacta partner with our top pick.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:41 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Chaos Theory; 1-Kanderel
Backups/Savers: none.
Forecast:We’ll try to survive and advance using two old pros in this $25,000 turf sprint for older horses. Ex-stakes performer Chaos Theory was successful at this level over this course in January, and after being in a tad too tough when facing tougher starter allowance foes in his last pair returns to the claiming ranks while being guaranteed clear sailing from his outside draw. The son of Curlin projects to enjoy a good stalking trip and then be able to kick on when called upon. Kanderel came to life when finishing second under these conditions last time out, and as one who does his best work from off the pace the Candy Ride gelding should appreciate today’s extended sprint trip. With some help up front, he seems certain to be heard from close home.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:14 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Lunatic
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: On pure form, Lunatic is a total standout in this $12,500 claiming sprint for fillies and mares, but after being waiver protected in her recent comeback win in a restricted (nw-3) $20,000 in early April and having been a voided claim last year, the price drop may be a cause for suspicion. On the other hand, this placement seems perfectly logical for a barn that generally manages its stock properly. The genuine and consistent mare has finished first or second in seven of 12 career outings with two of those wins over the Santa Anita main track, so if she has at least one good one left the Peter Miller-trained daughter of Mshawish should be able to take care of business at a short price.
RACE 6: Post: 3:44 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Katonah; 3-Show Time; 2-Motown Music.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Katonah has hit the board in his last two starts – both highly rated races for the level – and not much more will be needed to win this first-level allowance main track miler for older horses. The Doug O’Neill-trained gelding has plenty of speed when allowed to display it, and from his outside post seven (of seven) he might best respond to aggressive tactics in order to get over and secure his preferred pace pressing trip. Show Time is another may prefer to be forwardly placed, though his maiden win last summer at Los Alamitos was accomplished using patient tactics. In a race that projects to have better than average early fractions, the son of Into Mischief might be one of the few in here that can produce a late kick if held up early. Motown Music has won four of 12 in his career, with two of those victories coming over the local main track including a waiver protected $50,000 claiming score in late March. He’s highly competitive on speed figures and will be making his second start off a layoff for a barn that has strong stats with this angle. In a difficult race in which nothing would surprise, we’ll hope to get by using all three in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:14 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Whatmakessammyrun
Backups/savers: 3-Fast Buck; 2-Lovesick Blues
Forecast: Whatmakessammyrun won the Siren Lure Stakes over this course and distance last month, and a similar performance today should be good enough for a repeat score. A prototype late-running turf sprinter, the son of We Miss Artie projects to settle in the second flight and then have every chance to produce another winning late kick. For protection, we’ll also include Fast Buck and Lovesick Blues on a backup ticket. The former is sure to be the controlling speed, and if able to shake loose midway without being pressured he could get brave and take this group a long way. ‘Blues is in sharp form and may be running on late if the early pace comes up quicker than expected.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:44 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Spirit of Makena
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: There is a six pound shift in weights between Spirit of Makena and Forbidden Kingdom following the former’s length and one-half victory in the San Carlos Stakes-G3 over this track and distance in mid-March, so it is tempting to believe the result might be reversed in this year’s renewal of the Triple Bend Stakes-G2. Maybe, maybe not. ‘Makena will enjoy the same pace-stalking trip that he did last time and with just four career starts probably has plenty of room for further development, even at age five. The son of Ghostzapper continues to impress in the morning (‘Kingdom, not so much) so we’ll go with the theory that what we saw in the San Carlos is what we’ll see in the Triple Bend. At 8/5 on the morning line, we’ll make the George Papaprodromou-trained horse a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:14 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Paid in Gold
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Paid in Gold shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern and looks ready to graduate in this maiden $50,000 claiming turf miler for fillies and mares. The daughter of Ransom the Moon finished a willing third with a less than ideal trip in a fast (and productive) grass sprint last month, has trained very well since, and has the pedigree to improve considerably over a distance of ground. She has displayed sprint-type early speed, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see her in an ideal pace-pressing early position, if not on the lead altogether. The barn hits at a superb 27% with the sprint-to-route angle and switches to one of its “go-to” riders, Kyle Frey, so at 7/2 on the morning line she’s a strong win play and rolling exotic single.
