“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 1-Don’t Swear Dave; 8-Relaxed Artist; 6-Unreal
Forecast: The opener is a contentious Hillside Turf Course sprint for 3-year-olds that contains three Europeans making their U.S. debuts for winning connections. It’s a grass grab bag of sorts, so we’ll go three-deep and hope to survive and advance in rolling exotic play. Don’t Swear Dave performed better than the line will show when a willing fourth in the Pasadena S. over a mile seven days ago and is wheeled back on short rest while shortening in trip and dropping in class. This will be his fifth race of the season – kudos to the son of Connect – and while the rail post does him no favors the D. O’Neill-trained colt projects to settle within range and then have every chance from the top of the lane to the wire. Relaxed Artist has been visually impressive in workouts leading up to his U.S. debut for M. Glatt, though we suspect the son of Zoffany will need a distance of ground before showing his best stuff. He’ll be running on strongly late and may have enough quality to be dangerous under these conditions in just his third career start and his first since last June. Unreal was entered and scratched in the Eddie Logan S. in early January and then didn’t breeze for almost a month, so he’ll be making his first start since a smart maiden win sprinting on grass at Golden Gate Fields last fall. His recent work tab looks good, so this J. Wong-trained colt, with the proper stalking style for the course, merits a look at 8-1 on the morning line.
Notable Workouts:
Almanera (February 20, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3h TT). Grade: B
Prompted Island of Love (same time) outside down the backside, engaged workmate entering the lane and finished stride-for-stride with that one to the wire, neither one asked, final half mile in :12.1, :24.2 and :48.2, rather nice for D’Amato. Not a speed type but has some ability, probably will be most effective over a distance of ground. Seems fit.
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Shut Up Michael (February 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.1h TT). Grade: B-
In blinkers, broke off a couple of lengths in front of Excelerina (5f, 1:01.4h TT) and finished head-and-head with that one, never really asked (workmate breezing, too, and may have been a tad best) in solid training track drill for D’Amato, final half mile in :12 flat, :24.2 and :49 flat. Expected more when unplaced in the Baffle S., may improve but needs a softer spot.
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Oh Great (February 6, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.2hg). Grade: C+
European import was in gate drill with Carmen Miranda (5f, 1:00.2hg) and Memes (4f, :48.1hg) for Mullins and was always far back while lacking speed, splits of :25.1, :37.1, :49.3 and 1:02.2, not really asked much early but then appearing to pick it up a bit late. Certainly not a sprinter based on this drill, showed only fair form in England as a 2-year-old but did run well routing on synthetic in his last start overseas in August when winning a modest handicap via disqualification
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Relaxed Artist (February 18, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.4h TT). Grade: B
In blinkers in training track drill for Glatt, broke off several lengths behind Just About Enough (5f, 1:03h TT) and powered on by through the lane while being asked and ridden, final three furlongs in :13 flat and :36.4, sharp in the closing stages. Was a good winner in Ireland in the spring of his 2-year-old season over seven furlongs and definitely acts like a distance-type. Decent sort of prospect, for sure.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:01 PT Grade: X
Single: (in order of preference): 4-Big Sport
Forecast: Big Sport is a Chicago invader with speed figures that are more than good enough to win this $12,500 starter’s allowance sprint. However, It must be noted that several of these Midwest shippers from the B. Vanden Berg stable have not been able to duplicate their numbers on this circuit, and the barn’s record this meeting with similar runners is just 13-1-3-2. The veteran gelding won eight races from 10 starts last year after beginning 2021 competing at the $5,000 claiming level, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can transfer his Hawthorne form to Santa Anita. You can make him rolling exotic single but at 8/5 on the morning line in a five-runner event there probably won’t be much value to be found, so best advice might be to just sit it out.
Notable Workouts:
Big Sport (February 9, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.2h). Grade: B-
Tied in with stablemate Fore Left (4f, :48.4h) and was second best, finishing about three lengths back at the wire, hard held early before drifting wide into the lane and flattening out late (workmate was breezing and much best, was recently claimed by this barn for $40,000). High-headed son of Kantharos didn’t look like much but we’ll assume he just wants to be let roll.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 2-Cotopaxi; 8-Augusta Melody
Forecast: This extended grass sprint over the flat course is a challenging event in which several have similar speed figures. We’ll use two and hope that’s enough, but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead. Cotopaxi flashed improved early speed to take his foes gate-to-wire in a slightly softer starter $50,000 allowance grass dash last month while earning a number that makes him tough right back. A healthy work tab, including a bullet five furlong training track drill seven days ago, indicates he’s doing well and ready for another major effort. Augusta Melody should inherit a good stalking position outside and have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. The Speightstown gelding exits a tougher race, and his numbers are gradually rising, so with just a slight forward mover today he’ll be right there.
Notable Workouts:
Cotopaxi (February 12, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:03h). Grade: B
Slow final time in solo training track drill for D. O’Neill but the Irish-bred gelding finished eagerly while under a nice hold and looking fine, final quarter mile in :24.2. Maintains his form.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B
Single: 1-Memes
Forecast: This maiden $50,000 extended sprint attracted just five runners and appears to be an ideal spot the first-time gelding, Memes. The son of Practical Joke finished far back in a two-turn grass affair last month with a less-than-ideal trip, but in this seven furlong main track affair the P. Eurton-trained sophomore should be able to show his best stuff. A recent gate work caught the eye, so with the addition of bug boy D. Herrera and the weight break that goes with it, he’ll offer good wagering value at 4-1 on the morning line both in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
Notable Workouts:
Memes (February 13, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00hg). Grade: B
Much best in gate drill with Lottery Pick (4f, :47.4hg) for P. Eurton, always far in front while under very light coaxing only, splits of :24 flat, :35.1, :47.2 and 1:00 flat, quite nice for a maiden claiming type. Form isn’t much but he’s a first-time gelding and apparently improved because of it. Eligible to surface in a soft spot.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B
Single: 2-Dubby Dubbie
Forecast: Let’s take a stand in this below-average $25,000 claiming turf miler In a race that should produce soft early splits. Based on our projections, Dubby Dubbie might find himself as the controlling speed without undue pressure, and given that type of trip, the J. Sadler-trained gelding could very well get brave and roll all the way to the wire. He’s been unplaced in three career starts over the local lawn but in each of those outings he faced better foes than he’s meeting today. Additionally, the veteran son of Ice Box has numbers that can win and has two easy recent breezes to have him on edge, so at 2-1 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference):6-Ganadora; 3-Lady T; 1-So It Would Seem
Forecast: We’ll pass this six-runner maiden sprint for sophomore fillies while going three-deep in rolling exotic play. Ganadora is a Quality Road filly that brought $1 million as a yearling at Keeneland and makes her debut from a nice outside draw with a recent sharp gate workout for B. Baffert (27% with newcomers). She’s certain to get plenty of play, but there are two others that have credentials as well, so we’ll use her, but not as a single. Lady T was stakes-placed as a two-year-old and earned a big number when finishing second to Eda in the Anoakia S. while more than seven lengths clear of the rest last fall over the local main track. This extended sprint trip will compliment her closing style. So It Would Seem earned a respectable number when second in a maiden $75,000 affair in January and was claimed by J. Sadler, who protects her in a sign of confidence. She seems certain to improve but will have to in order to win at this straight maiden level.
Notable Workouts:
Lady T (February 12, Santa Anita, 4f, :50.1h). Grade: B-
Easy half mile solo breeze for Shirreffs, splits of :12.4, :25 flat and :50.2 while getting fit for return. Showed plenty of ability during her juvenile campaign but remains a maiden despite being stakes-placed.
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Ganadora (February 20, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00hg). Grade: B
Was hustled along most of the way outside High Connection (same time) while showing good speed throughout, splits of :23.3, :34.4 and :46.4 (eased up there) before coasting out five furlongs in 1:00 flat, nice work for Baffert while getting cranked for her debut. Didn’t do anything noteworthy in previous drills but definitely stepped it up here. Quality Road filly cost $1 million as a yearling and should be a live item in debut.
Gate work outside High Connection for Baffert, splits of
View Workout Video
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RACE 7: Post: 3:37 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 6-Tapwater; 7-Hear My Prayer; 4-Alice Marble
Forecast: Tapwater, a router most of her career, shortened to a sprint and ran very well when narrowly missing in the Las Cienegas S.-G2 down the Hillside Course last month, and in doing so may have found her niche as a late-running turf sprinter. In a race that should have enough early speed to compliment her closing kick, the veteran daughter of Tapit may be able to tag the speed close home. Hear My Prayer, an excellent third after cutting out the fractions in the same race Tapwater exits, faces plenty of speed in the presence of Bay Area shipper Dynasty of Her Own, but she is drawn outside of that one and therefore has the option to take back and employ stalking tactics. She has won that way in the past, so the veteran V. Cerin-trained mare is the likely choice and the one to beat. Alice Marble is a progressive Cal-bred with just eight career starts and room for further improvement. A solid runner-up in the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf Sprint down the Hill last month, she is tackling open company today, but her speed figures suggest she has a decent sort of look. Toss her in somewhere at 4-1 on the morning line.
Notable Workouts:
Alice Marble (February 13, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.2h). Grade: B+
Excellent work inside Rock the Belles (same time) for D’Amato, splits of 24 flat, :35.4 and 1:01 flat, never really and finishing with plenty left. Continues to improve with each race and workout and should be primed for another top effort. Handles any surface.
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Tapwater (February 19, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.2h). Grade: B+
Final quarter mile in :24.2 without being asked while closing a big gap on Honey Jar (5f, 1:03.1h) in sharp half mile main track drill for Mandella. Comes off huge try sprinting on turf and maintains that form.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:10 PT Grade: A-
Single: 5-Set Sail
Forecast: Set Sail has done everything right in the morning and looks plenty fit and ready to score at first asking in this seven furlong affair for older maidens. The son of Malibu Moon has good speed but has trained like a colt who will run on, so if he leaves with his field and avoids trouble, he certainly has the talent to handle this assignment. Listed at 5/2 on the morning line, the R. Mandella-trained sophomore offers strong wagering value at or near that price in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
Notable Workouts:
Vittoro (February 20, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.3h). Grade: B-
Caught him from the half mile pole to the wire with splits of :11.4, :23.3 and :48.1, a few ticks slower than given while finishing a length behind Martini Mischief (same time), never asked but second best (workmate breezing, too). Not bad but was hoping for a bit more. Finished fourth in his debut but it wasn’t much of a race.
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Elector (February 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01h). Grade: B-
Asked mildly late and finished okay in solo drill for Sadler, final quarter mile in :25 flat. Had nightmarish trip in debut and probably deserves another chance vs. older maidens.
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Set Sail (February 18, Santa Anita, 7f, 1:25.3h). Grade: A-
Caught him from the half mile pole out to the seven furlong pole in a terrific solo move by maiden in Mandella barn, splits of :24 flat, :48.2 and 1:00.3, strong throughout and with plenty left late. Very good prospect by Malibu Moon, seems fit and ready and will be hard to beat first time out.
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Lil Light Headed (February 20, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.4hg). Grade: C+
Last of three in a gate work with McLaren Vale and Taiba (both 5f, :59hg) while being ridden most of the way, always outrun by a couple of tough customers. Down the road type at this stage for M. McCarthy.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:42 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 9-Mo Them Down; 6-Disko Tribute; 3-Awesome Rhythm
Forecast: Mo Them Down has been a massive disappointment – at least to those who have knocked him down to odds-on in his last pair – but with the removal of blinkers and as a first-time gelding the son of Mohaymen seems certain to attract plenty of support again in this maiden $50,000 turf sprint. He gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy D. Herrera and could easily wire this field if he can produce in the afternoon the same type of energy he shows in the a.m. Disko Tribute is bred for grass (Tom’s Tribute) and has done some decent work at San Luis Rey Downs. It’s an educated guess but we suspect this gelding can run some, so we’ll toss him in. Awesome Rhythm is a first-off-the-claim play for P. Aguirre (solid stats with this angle) and has every right to improve after finishing a reasonable third after a slow start in his debut. He’s up from the maiden $30,000 ranks but should be competitive at this level.
Notable Workouts:
Mo Them Down (February 13, Santa Anita, 4f, :50.4h TT). Grade: B+
Went without blinkers, was always breezing while finishing about three lengths clear of Nothngoodcomseasy (same time) for O’Neill, final three furlongs under wraps in :37.3. Burned a ton of money in his last pair and isn’t one to trust but continues to impress in the morning and was recently gelded. Seeking another maiden claimer.
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