Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita “What You Need to Know”
Saturday, April 27, 2024
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
View Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays Video
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 5-Caribbean King.
Backups/savers: 3-Hot Legs Romolo.
Forecast: Caribbean King squandered a perfect trip when settling for second in a similar affair last time out so it’s hard to have a whole lot of confidence in the 8/5 morning line favorite. However, a repeat of that race probably lands him in the winner’s circle, so we’ll put him on top while recognizing that there won’t be much value to be found in a race lacking in depth. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: A
Main Ticket: 1-Our Bucky Charm
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Our Bucky Charm has trained like an exceptional prospect for his racing debut and if he leaves cleanly from the rail the son of Munnings should graduate at first asking, though at 6/5 on the morning line there’s not a whole lot we can do with him. His local breezes have been accomplished with ease and power and in what appears to be a below par race for straight maiden state-bred runners he should take care of business and then go on to bigger and better things for trainer Mike Puype.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5-Safa; Quick Kate; 6-Sneaker.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Safa has been stuck on seconds of late and her overall record (one win, seven seconds/thirds) gives indication that she may lack a winning punch. Numbers-wise, she’s solid and consistent but not particular fast, so we’ll put her on top without singling her. Quick Kate stretches out again and it must be noted that she won her only prior two turn outing, a maiden affair in December over this course and distance. She finished behind Safa in two prior encounters, but both were in sprints. Sneaker may try gate-to-wire tactics again after using this strategy when breaking her maiden last month. She won’t have to improve much to be competitive despite the class hike.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 4-The Chosen Vron
Backups/savers: 1-Forbidden Kingdom.
Forecast: The Chosen Vron returns to open company again, but it shouldn’t matter – remember, he took the Bing Crosby S.-G1 last summer at Del Mar – so we’ll expect the popular Cal-bred gelding to continue his winning ways in this non-graded sprint stakes. Perfect in four starts at this extended sprint distance, the son of Vronsky continues to train in sensational fashion and is a logical rolling exotic single, albeit at odds-on.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:04 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 2-Anmer Hall.
Backups/savers: 4-Lahaina Flavor.
Forecast: Anmer Hall was forced to take the overland route when settling for second in a similar starter’s allowance event over this course and distance last month, but his speed figure was typically solid, so if he can manage to save some ground today from his comfortable inside draw the S. Knapp-trained gelding should return to winning form. At or near his morning line of 5/2, the son of Palace Malice offers solid value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5-Top Gun Tommy; 8-Elector.
Backups/savers: 2-Landsdowne (GB); 1-Johnny Drama.
Forecast: Top Gun Tommy earned a career top speed figure when second in a hot $32,000 claiming sprint last month and returns on a one-level class drop for a barn that actually has very good stats with this angle (though with moderate-to-weak stats with pretty much everything else). The veteran son of Mineshaft was more than five lengths clear of the others and a similar effort today should be more than good enough. Elector was green and lugging out in a restricted (nw-3) $32,000 when finishing unplaced but galloped out far in front in a self-caused troubled trip last time out. If he ever figures thing out, he’s at least as good if not better than these, but after 12 career starts who knows if the light switch will ever go on. He’s 8-1 on the morning line, so we’ll toss him in on the main ticket.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:07 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: Forgiving Spirit
Backups/savers: 2-On the Whim; 7-Legislator; 9-Cali Bay.
Forecast: Forgiving Spirit looks pretty solid in this first level allowance Hillside sprint and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. A four time winner over the Santa Anita lawn, the son of Shaman Ghost picks up leading rider J. Hernandez, so he may go lower than his 2-1 morning line. The main concern is the P. Miller barn, which has experienced an unusually slow year so far.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: 8-L’Enfant Dit; 9-Lettheliquortalk.
Backups/savers: 5-American Cat.
Forecast: In his first start in 13 months, L’Enfant DitLettheliquortalk, removing blinkers and stretching out for the first time for the hot Mullins/Berrios combo, may not want to run this far but if he’s ever going to be successful over a distance of ground, it’ll most likely be in his first try. Use him somewhere.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:08 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: 1-Miss Lizzy; 3-Bellabel (Ire); 7-Uncorked (Aus).
Backups/savers: 8-Stay and Scam.
Forecast: This is a fairly wide open one mile turf stakes for older fillies and mares requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. Miss Lizzy has been sprinting well of late but she can handle two turns, too, and in a race with plenty of speed the daughter of Classic Empire may be able to lag early and tag the leaders close home. At or near her morning line of 6-1, she may be as good as any. Bellabel was flat as a pancake in the Buena Vista S.-G3 when a non-threatening fifth, but her race before last – a win in the Megahertz S. over this course and distance – earned a number that puts her right there. She’s always been a versatile type that can win on the lead or from off the pace, depending upon the race flow. Uncorked makes here local debut for new trainer P. D’Amato and her Eastern form makes her reasonably competitive at this level on this circuit. She’ll be doing her best work late.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:38 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: 4-Faustin; 6-Ultimate Gamble
Backups/savers: 1-Yellow Brick.
Forecast: We loved the comeback outing by Faustin earlier this month and expect the B. Baffert colt, who had every right to be a bit rusty, to move forward considerably off that strong runner-up effort at this first level allowance condition. That race was on turf, but the son of Curlin actually should be more comfortable on dirt, and from where he’s drawn this lightly raced, stakes-placed 4-year-old should inherit an ideal pace stalking/pressing trip. Ultimate Gamble, a $1.75 million purchase as a 2-year-old, returns off a year layoff but has trained like he’s reasonably fit for high percentage connections. A bit of a one-paced grinding type based on his races from last year, the son of Medaglia d’Oro probably won’t show his best stuff until given more ground to work with, though he did graduate at this mile trip, so it’ll be interesting to see how he performs in his first race back.
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RACE 11: Post: 6:08 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: 4-Sunset Glory (Ire)
Backups/savers: 10-Runyon Canyon; 8-Baltic Fire.
Forecast: Sunset Glory (Ire) lost far more ground than she was beaten by in an impressive second place finish in her U. S. debut 18 months ago but then disappeared. She returns after missing her entire sophomore campaign as a first time Lasix user and with a work pattern for trainer M. McCarthy that suggests that she is fit and ready. Listed at 4-1 on the morning line and offering excellent value at or near that price, the Irish-bred filly warrants strong consideration as a rolling exotic single.
