“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 10-Fun Money; 9-Cholly
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Fun Money and Cholly have decent main track form, but both will be making their first start on grass, so we’re not quite sure how much, if any, they will improve or regress with the switch in surface. ‘Money isn’t particular fast on numbers, but she’s stakes placed along with hitting the board in three maiden special weight affairs, so we suspect she’ll run her race. Cholly, in the frame in both starts with improving numbers, should be part of the pace throughout and is the one to fear most. In a race that doesn’t offer much to work with, we’ll try to get by using just these two.
Notable Workouts:
Fun Money (Oct. 1, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3hg). Grade: B-
In gate drill outside Silver Lightening (5f, 1:00.4hg) for D. O’Neill and was best without undue pressure, late changing leads but looking okay with splits of :24.2, :36.2, :48.2 and 1:00.4 on our watches. Blazed-face chestnut filly should be tough when returned to the maiden ranks after finishing a willing but non-threatening third in the Generous Portion Stakes at Del Mar.
View Workout Video
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Brittle and You; 6-Mery Mercy
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Brittle and You returns to the claiming ranks but remains above her purchase price, so suspect the Eddie Truman-trained mare can return to winning form after finishing a respectable third in a much tougher allowance optional claimer at Los Alamitos last month. Reunited with “win rider” Juan Hernandez, the veteran daughter of Include is solid on numbers and should be able to produce a winning late bid. Mercy Mercy is double jumped in class by new trainer Steve Knapp after beating $16,000 sellers at Del Mar in mid-August. She’s a perfect one-for-one over the Santa Anita main track and projects to be prominent throughout. Brittle and You gets preference on top, but we’ll use both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Maeve of Connaught
Backups/savers: 2-Leisurewear; 3-Vivando
Forecast: Maeve of Connaught closed against the grain to finish a promising second at a big price (19-1) in a similar maiden turf router for fillies and mares last month at Del Mar and if she can duplicate that performance today she’ll have every chance to produce a winning late kick. She makes a positive jockey switch to Umberto Rispoli and shows a couple of recent easy breezes to tick her over. Leisurewear and Vivando, a close third and fourth, respectively, in the same race ‘Connaught exits, certainly won’t have to improve much to win, so we’ll toss them in as well in a race that probably should be handled with care.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Colonel Bowman; 5-Of Good Report; 8-Lookin for Revenge
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: There’s a condition question surrounding Colonel Bowman after he was a voided claim for $20,000 at Del Mar in August, but if the Robertino Diodoro-trained gelding has at least one good one left he should be able to win at this $12,500 level. The Curlin gelding has back numbers that would bury this group, and his recent work pattern is encouraging. Of Good Report and Lookin for Revenge, one-two finishers in an $8,000 claiming miler at Los Alamitos last month, meet again at the big track on the raise and will be contenders if ‘Bowman doesn’t fire.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-See Through It
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: See Through It looks pretty solid in this $25,000 claiming turf sprint, but at 8/5 on the morning line with the possibility of going lower there may not be much value available. The Doug O’Neill-trained gelding is winless in five starts over the local turf course but has finished second twice while earning speed figures that are good enough to win at this level, and a recent fast, highly rated score in an abbreviated grass dash at Del Mar last month earned a career top speed figure. He’ll beat this field with a repeat of that race, though the fact that his new connections aren’t protecting him on the raise is somewhat concerning. We suggest you approach this race with a degree of caution.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Fort Bragg; 4-Practical Move
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Fort Bragg had the misfortunate of debuting in the same race that stablemate Speed Boat Beach broke the Del Mar five and one-half furlong track record and did well to finish third after moving within range at the head of the lane before understandably flattening out. Three bullet workouts since that race tells us the son of Tapit will be fitter and tighter today, and while we’d normally prefer to see another sprint prep before stretching out, the Bob Baffert barn hits with an amazing 32% with the second time starter angle and we suspect the added distance won’t be a problem. Practical Move in the frame in both of his starts, has the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out angle in his chart and better than par speed figures for juvenile maidens, so he’s a “must use” on our ticket, as well.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Square Cat; 6-Moose Mitchell
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Square Cat found five furlongs on turf a little bit too sharp and did well to finish a closing second in a similar state-bred first level allowance dash at Del Mar last month. This Hillside Turf Course looks ideally suited for his second flight, stalking style, so let’s give the Brian Korinor-trained gelding top billing at or around his morning line of 2-1. Moose Mitchell is the one he’ll most likely have to beat. Claimed in his last pair and now in the George Papaprodromou barn, the Danzing Candy gelding is protected today in a sign of confidence while seeking his third straight win, and if he can repeat his dirt numbers on grass he’ll be hard to beat. We’ll give Square Cat the edge on top but include both in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-So It Would Seem
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: So It Would Seem is re-equipped with blinkers following a $16,000 George Papaprodromou claim after finishing second as the favorite at this restricted (nw-2) level for this price at Del Mar last month. She was well clear of the rest, retains Juan Hernandez, and should be capable of returning to winning form. At a short price, you can use her as a rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:08 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Thorn House
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Thorn House crushed maidens in a fast, highly rated race last month at Del Mar and if he can duplicate that performance in this entry-level allowance Hillside Turf Course affair he’ll easily handle the bump up in class. He’s out of a Thorn Song mare, and that’s where the positive grass influence hopefully will come from. There’s probably not a whole lot of value at his morning line of 8/5 but if you’re playing rolling exotics the son of Clubhouse Ride would appear to be a logical single.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:38 PT Grade:
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Reincarnate; 5-Valiancer
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Reincarnate will have to overcome his outside draw in this one mile maiden turf affair for 2-year-olds but after missing by a neck under similar conditions last month at Del Mar and hailing from a barn that excels with second-time starters (32%), the Bob Baffert-trained son of Good Magic seems the logical top choice. A five furlong training track bullet workout (:58 3/5) since raced is encouraging, to say the least. Valiancer is a three-time maiden whose form has been compromised by poor racing luck, some of it self-caused. After finishing a better-than-looked third in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes (behind stable mate Packs a Wahlop, who came back to win the Zuma Beach Stakes yesterday), this son of Tapiture should find this group within his capabilities. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Reincarnate.
Notable Workouts:
Reincarnate (Sept. 24, Santa Anita, 5f, :58.2h TT). Grade: A-
Worked inside the stakes-winning Speed Boat Beach (same time) in training track drill and was second best but more than held his own, going off quickly (:23.1) and then finishing under mild urging to be up in :58.2, smart drill for talented juveniles in B. Baffert barn. Plenty of speed, for sure.
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