“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: X
Use (in order of preference): 5-Nerves of Steel; 4-Secret Club
Forecast: Nerves of Steel (TOC=3/5); ML=8/5) and Secret Club (TOC=3-1; ML=9/5) finished two-three in a similar starter’s allowance turf miler last month and meet again under identical conditions in this one mile grass affair for older horses. ‘Steel was poorly drawn in the 11-hole in that race and never really got over, eventually going down by a head to Sole Animo in a tough beat. A similar effort today from a better post gives him the edge over ‘Club, who has less tactical speed and may need some help up front. Rolling exotics players probably should use both but otherwise pass the race.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:02 PT Grade: B-
Single: 4-Prince Ziggy
Forecast: Bottom-rung maiden claiming milers meet in the second race. Prince Ziggy (TOC=3/2, ML=4-1) has a speed figure to go back to last summer at Del Mar over a mile on dirt that would bury this group and gets identical conditions today for the first time since while switching to hot bug boy D. Herrera. It’s a bit of a stretch, yes, but there’s little to work with, so at 4-1 on the morning line he’s worth a small play. Tread lightly.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:38 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 5-Quick Finish; 6-Gerlach’s
Forecast: Quick Finish (TOC=9/5; ML=5/2) takes a significant class drop while returning to the main track and seems to have found a proper spot in this restricted (nw-3) $20,000 seller. Just 2-for-22 during his career, the 8-year-old gelding may not be one to trust, but on pure numbers he’s simply faster than this group. Gerlach’s (TOC=6/5; ML=2-1) is back sprinting where he belongs, lands the cozy outside post, and will be the one to fear most with a repeat of his race-before-last, a sharp score from restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claimers that produced a career-top speed figure. He’s also reunited with “win rider” A. Cedillo. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play, with a slight preference on top to Quick Finish.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 5-Kitten’s Kid; 4-Self Isolation
Forecast: Here’s another race that offers two main players and not much else. Kitten’s Kid and Self Isolation finished two-three in an identical turf miler for maiden fillies and mares last month and meet again in a race that they should dominate. ‘Kid removes blinkers (we always like this angle), switches to J. Hernandez, and projects to be on or near the lead and then have every chance to seal the deal close home. ‘Isolation finished a half-length behind her main rival in that mid-January event in her first start around two turns. How much she will improve in her second route attempt is the concern. Both should be included in rolling exotic play, with the main push going to Kitten’s Kid.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:38 PT Grade: X
Use (in order of preference): 5-Becca Taylor; 4-Super Game
Forecast: This Cal-bred sprint stakes for fillies and mares attracted just five runners, including the 4/5 morning line favorite and logical top pick Becca Taylor (TOC=2/5; ML=4/5) . A sharp comeback winner at Golden Gate Fields with a career top speed figure last month, the lightly-raced daughter of Old Topper projects to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip and then be able to accelerate when asked, just as she did in her win last month. Perfect in two starts over the Santa Anita main track, the S. Miyadi-trained filly is reunited with F. Prat and looks on paper very much like an odds-on favorite should. Super Game (TOC=9/2; ML=3-1) can be used on a ticket or two for protection. A big figure winner in an off-the-turf event here in December, the B. Koriner-trained filly was overmatched in the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf Sprint down the hill last time out, but a case could be made that she’s every bit as good if not better on dirt. She’ll be running on late.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:09 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 1-Agreetodisagree; 3-Cinnte Winnte
Forecast: Agreetodisagree (TOC=3/2; ML=8/5) didn’t get the best of runs when fourth as the favorite in a similar starter’s allowance turf miler last month but lands the good inside draw, switches to F. Prat, and with clear sailing and a repeat of her career-top producing win two races back should be capable of regaining her winning form. The daughter of Runhappy has a prior win over the local turf course and a strong, healthy recent work pattern to have her ready for a top try. Cinnte Winnte (TOC=7/5; ML=5/2), third in the same race our top pick exits, needs patient handle and a covered-up trip. With her best effort, she can be right there with this group.
Notable Workouts:
Agreetodisagree (February 13, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.1h TT). Grade: B
Breezing throughout in effortless training track drill for P. Eurton, smooth action to the wire. Looks good and should be ready for a top effort based on this drill.
View Workout Video
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RACE 7: Post: 3:39 PT Grade: X
Single: 4-Brickyard Ride
Forecast: Brickyard Ride (TOC=4/5; ML=4/5) obviously is the controlling speed in this mile main track stakes race restricted to California-bred older horses. Can he get the trip? If this race were on turf, we’d say yes, but on dirt, who knows? In a race over a mile on grass two years ago (his only career start around two turns), the son of Clubhouse Ride led the way into the stretch while appearing headed for victory but then tried to jump over the rail at the furlong pole and lost his rider. It certainly wasn’t the distance that got him beat, though to be fair grass can add a furlong or more to a horse’s supply of stamina. In his present form, the C. Lewis-trained 5-year-old could take control from the start and never look back, though at 4/5 on the morning line he won’t be offering any real wagering value, other than as a short-priced rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:09 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 5-Rocky Gibraltar; 8-Oubabe
Forecast: Trainer J. Sadler saddles the two main players in this six furlong grass sprint for maiden state-bred 3-year-olds. Rocky Gibraltar did everything wrong in his debut (breaking slowly, racing wide, and lugging in under pressure late) but still managed to finish second under similar conditions last month, and if he learned anything at all the son of Shaman Ghost should produce enough of a forward move to earn his diploma. J. Hernandez got know some of his quirks in his debut, stays aboard, and should be ready for anything. Stable mate Oubabe, freshened since early December, gets Lasix and is reunited with F. Prat, who was aboard when the son of He Be Fire N Nice finished a solid runner-up over this course during the fall meeting. His speed figure in that race that would likely be good enough to win today. He’s the 8/5 morning line favorite and logically so.
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