February 20, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Our Shining Light
Backups/savers: 5-General Mathis
Forecast: Our Shining Light is lightly-raced, improving, and ready to tackle first level allowance company after a pair of nice wins, one a maiden tally up north over a mile on the all-weather surface and then most recently a starter allowance turf sprint here last month. The Irish-bred gelding is unproven at this nine furlong trip but should easily inherit the role as the controlling speed and have every chance to wire the field. However, at 6/5 on the morning line, there won’t be much wagering value available. For protection, you may want to include on a backup ticket General Mathis, a winner over this course and distance last month from starter’s company with a career top number. The main concern is that he’s a deep closer in a race that projects to have moderate to slow early fractions.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:59 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Senoran
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Senoran probably can’t beat a stakes quality maiden but so far in two starts that’s pretty much all he’s faced. The Bob Baffert-trained colt chased home the highly regarded Faustin in his debut in December and then couldn’t cope with the exceptionally quick Geaux Rocket Ride in his second career outing last month. There doesn’t appear to be anything in this field he can’t handle, so at a very short price he’s a logical no value rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:29 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-What a Dude; 1-Naismith
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: 4-What a Dude makes his California debut for new trainer Phil D’Amato after tossing in a pair of clunkers on wet tracks in New York before his arrival. His Eastern turf form charts extremely well in this company on this circuit, so let’s put him on top in this straight $32,000 claimer over a mile on grass. Also worthy including on a ticket is Naismith. The Richard Mandella-trained son of Medaglia d’Oro stretches out again after finishing a willing fourth in a starter’s allowance sprint last month, while two runs back he broke his maiden in clever fashion at this trip on grass at Del Mar. He’s not as fast on pure numbers as our top pick but could be dangerous from the rail if handed the role as the controlling speed.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-The Chosen Vron
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: The Chosen One made hard work of it when winning the Cal Cup Sprint by a desperate head at 2/5 last month and probably will leave at similar odds today when stretching out to a mile in the Tiznow Stakes for state-bred older horses. A winner of nine of 13 career starts and beaten just once in six outings over the Santa Anita main track, the Eric Kruljac-trained son of Vronsky is assured a soft pace scenario in this five runner field and will be extremely hard to beat either as the controlling speed or from a soft stalking position outside. He’s a no value short price rolling exotic single in a race that should otherwise be left alone.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:29 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Admiralty Place; 2-Admiral Halsey
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Admiralty Place, in the frame in both of his local outings over a distance of ground since arriving from Ireland, shortens to a sprint and looks well-spotted to finally earn his diploma in his eighth career start. Prior to his importation from Europe, the five-year-old gelding was most comfortable going short and in fact ran in several competitive events with big fields that produced Timeform ratings good enough to beat this field. Look for him to be doing his best work late. Admiral Haley, now in the Peter Miller barn, has been away since last May but shows a San Luis Rey Downs work tab that should have him fit enough off the bench. The son of War Front has run well over this course and distance in the past. Both should be used in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:02 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-I Know Cash Flow ; 1-Sunrise Journey
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: We’ll try to survive and advance going two deep in this allowance optional claiming extended dash for California-bred older horses. I Know Cash Flow shows the route-to-sprint angle that we like, gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Alsagoor, and is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track. He has four easy breezes since raced in a healthy work pattern at San Luis Downs for trainer Peter Miller and projects to draft into a comfortable pace pressing position. Sunrise Journey clearly is the fastest in the field based on speed figures, but he was a voided claim for $20,000 last time out is a similar affair Jan. 20 and shows only one slow five furlong workout in the interim. He’ll likely be gunned from the rail using gate-to-wires strategy and will be tough to catch with anything close to his best effort.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Precocious Times; 1-Cuban Crisis
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Precocious Times finished a better-than-looked fifth, breaking slowly and then closing a gap in a very strong straight maiden affair in her U.S. debut more than a year ago, but then had to be stopped on. She returns in a realistic high-price maiden claiming spot under top rider Juan Hernandez with a useful series of training track workouts that should have her plenty fit. If she returns as well as she left, she’ll be hard to beat. Cuban Crisis shows the always critical maiden-to-maiden-claiming class drop, and from the rail draw in this six furlong dash the Mark Glatt-trained filly seems likely to enjoy an ideal, second flight, ground saving. journey. She is quite competitive based on speed figures, so with the switch to Frankie and at 7/2 on the morning line she is very much a “must use.” We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two, with preference on top to Precocious Times.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:06 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Princess Adaleigh
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: Princess Adaleigh lost a toughie when missing by a half-length while nearly three lengths clear of the others in a similar first level allowance sprint for fillies and mares last month in a race that earned her a career top speed figure. Today’s extra furlong should produce a softer early pace for the daughter of Goldencents, who projects to enjoy a very easy time of it on the front end. The blinkers off angle adds fuel to the fire, so at 6/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower the Vladimir Cerin-trained filly is a logical short price rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Tom’s Beauty; 4-Phenom
Backups/savers: 5-Secret’s Told; 1-Symphony Perfect
Forecast: Tom’s Beauty was visually impressive beating a first level allowance grass field sprinting on the flat a couple of weeks ago and returns off short rest while moving up a notch and, this time, trying her luck on the Hillside Course. She is a progressive sort with further room for improvement, and with plenty of speed signed on she’s likely to settle in the second flight and then cut loose straightening for home. At a reasonable 4-1 on the morning line she’s worth a play, the quick turnaround notwithstanding. Phenom got cooked on a hot pace in a similar affair last month as the strong favorite but seems certain to stick better today if the early splits are reasonable. Secrets Told is solid on numbers and has excellent tactical speed. The Phil D’Amato-trained mare usually prefers to run second or third rather than win but on her best day she can be right there. Symphony Perfect has faced group quality competition overseas and rates something of a look in this, her U.S. debut. Her work tab is light, and she lands the disadvantageous rail, but she’s worth tossing in, at least as a saver.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:09 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Double Fantasy; 8-La V.
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Double Fantasy stayed on willingly but couldn’t quite get there when second as the favorite in a productive abbreviated sprint for restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming fillies and mares last month and not much more will be needed to handle this assignment. The rail sprinting always is a concern but if she leaves with her field the lightly raced Tapiture mare should be in the first flight throughout and have every chance. La V. can be plenty quick at times, but she has had difficulty of late sealing the deal under pressure close home. She exits a series of straight claimers, should appreciate this softer conditioned field, and with patient handling might produce more late punch.
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