“What You Need to Know” for Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TPC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Worse Read Sanchez
Forecast: With the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern, Worse Read Sanchez gets ideal conditions to earn his diploma in this mile turf event for maiden 3-year-olds. The son of Square Eddie ran better than the line will show when overcoming early trouble to rally widest of all entering the lane and then keeping to his task late to wind up a closing fourth on New Year’s Day. The D. O’Neill-trained colt adds blinkers, is comfortably drawn inside, shows a nice, easy breeze since raced and really doesn’t have all that much to beat in this event restricted to Cal-bred runners. At 9/5 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Fore Flag (January 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.3h). Grade: C
Outside Girl Ranger (5f, 1:02.1h) but was unable to stay with that one through the lane despite urging, final half mile on our watches in :24 flat and :50.3., a few lengths back at the wire. Form isn’t bad but this was hardly inspiring.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 2: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: X
Single: 3-Cause She’s A Lady
Forecast: Cause She’s a Lady, freshened since October and making the all-important class drop from maiden special weight to maiden claiming, is listed at 6/5 on the morning line and on paper looks every bit of that. The M. Puype-trained filly was considered good enough to make her debut in a stakes (she finished far back from a poor inside draw) and then wound up a distant fourth in a better-than-par maiden state-bred sprint after displaying good early speed for a half. If she returns as well as she left, the daughter of Creative Cause should be able to dominate this modest field every step of the way. She’s a logical, short-priced, no-value rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Tizzy Twister (January 2, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.1hg). Grade: C+
Solo gate drill for S. Knapp, was ridden most of the way with splits of :24.1, :36 flat and :48.3 on our watches, fair to moderate. Maiden claiming material at this stage, might be competitive with soft Cal-bred competition.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 3: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-Straight Up G
Forecast: Straight Up G (TOC=4/5; ML=4/5) just easily outrun a similar field in the King Glorious Stakes at Los Alamitos last month and seems likely to do the same thing today in this year’s edition of the Cal Cup Derby. The son of Straight Fire may have to contend with a bit more speed today (Highland Ghost may be sent from the rail) but we doubt it’ll make much difference to a colt who is far from speed crazy and should be able to settle into a stalking position if the race flow dictates. In any case, he’s going to be too short to play in the win pool, but we can use him as another heavily-backed rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Finneus (January 9, Santa Anita, 5f, :59h). Grade: B-
A bit rank leaving the pole but settled through the opening quarter in :23.4, picked it up on the turn (:35 flat) but then hard urged and ridden while a tad late changing leads to finish all out in :59.1 on our watches for Solis. Not a great worker but shows up in the afternoon. Might be most comfortable around one turn.
View Workout Video
Straight Up G (January 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B
Niggled at just a tad through the lane but looked fine, final quarter mile in :24.2 for R. Baltas. Maintains his form, certainly the one to beat in the Cal Cup Derby.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 4: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: X
Single: 4-Hail Freedom
Forecast: In a card so far dominated by short-priced favorites, here’s another one. Hail Freedom has finished in the frame in seven of eight starts without yet winning, so he may be a tad difficult to trust, but the son of Box Score adds blinkers for the first time while switching to F. Prat so we’re expecting the D. O’Neill-trained colt to bust through with a maiden-breaking win. His runner-up effort sprinting over the local lawn during the fall season charts very well with these, so following a bullet five furlong training track drill six days ago (:59 flat, fastest of 20) this 4-year-old colt really shouldn’t miss. He’s 8/5 on the morning line, likely to go lower, and appears to be yet another logical rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Square Cat (January 1, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3h). Grade: C+
In blinkers, ridden and urged through the lane to be even inside Buy American (same time), splits :24.2, :36 flat and 1:01.4 on our watches, okay work, nothing special. Seems like the type that runs a bit better than he works. Seeking another state-bred maiden sprint for older horses.
View Workout Video
Really Big News (January 2, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h). Grade: C+
Ridden some through the lane to be even but second best with breezing workmate Lil’s Big Shot (same time) for Yakteen, splits of :23.1 and :48.4, fair move. Probably wants turf to show his best stuff. Seeking another maiden state-bred grass miler, kind of a one-paced grinder. View Workout Video
_____________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 5: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 5-Smiling Goodbye; 8-Arthur Spooner
Forecast: Here’s a challenging maiden claiming state-bred sprint for 3-year-olds in which the known element doesn’t impress, and the first-timers don’t appear to be particularly formidable. We’ll try to get by using just two, but best advice is to spread as deeply as your budget allows. We haven’t seen video of Smiling Goodbye, but the D. Pederson-trained gelding is bred to be quick (Smiling Tiger) and has been given a sufficient foundation of workouts to be fit and ready. The barn generally does well with first-timers so let’s put the Harris Farms homebred on top at 5/2 on the morning line. Arthur Spooner has the benefit of six prior races, and while he’s a one-paced gelding with moderate numbers he’s a fit in a very soft race for the level. Drawn comfortably outside, the son of Gemologist should have every chance to inherit a good stalking trip and then have dead aim from the quarter pole home.
Notable Workouts:
Make Mine Wine (January 9, Santa Anita, 3f, :37.3hg). Grade: C
Was ridden along in solo gate drill for Wong and went considerably slower than given, splits of :27 flat and :39 flat on our watches. Certainly not a speed type based on this drill.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 6: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference: 8-Indian Peak; 3-Aligato
Forecast: Indian Peak (TOC=2-1; ML=3-1) has been competitive in graded stakes company and is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, so the veteran gelding should be hard to beat in this year’s edition of the Unusual Heat Turf Classic restricted to state-bred older horses. An excellent third (beaten less than a length) in the Seabiscuit H.-G2 at Del Mar two races back, the son of Comic Strip need only repeat that effort today to handle this task. He’s 3-1 on the morning line but we suspect he’ll go lower. Also worth including is the improving but unproven Aligato (TOC=12-1; ML=7/2) , recently nosed out in a first-level allowance turf sprint over the local lawn. This is a step up in class, for sure, and the analytics are cold-watering him, but the son of Kitten’s Joy continues to improve with racing and this stretch-out in trip should bring out his best. The switch to F. Prat doesn’t hurt, either. We’ll prefer Indian Peak on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
Notable Workouts:
Aligato (January 10, Santa Anita, 4f, :50.2h TT). Grade: B
Went off easily and then picked it up nicely through the lane to finish with good energy while going past Mendham Mill (5f, 1:02.1h TT) for M. Glatt, final three furlongs in :13 flat and :37.2. Looks fine, certainly should handle a distance of ground.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 7: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 2-Scary Fast Smile; 5-Suzie Qzz Brother; 8-Crash Corrigan
Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in this state-bred, first-level allowance sprint while preferring Scary Fast Smile (TOC=8-1; ML-7/2) on top. Below form in his last four outings but continuing to train well over a main track we know he prefers, the M. Glatt-trained gelding has never been off third board in six career starts over the local main track, and a recent bullet :59 flat five furlong drill indicates he’s ready to perform up to standard. Regular pilot T. Baze stays aboard, knows him well, and should have him on or near what projects to be a moderate early pace. The analytics aren’t high on his chance, but we are. Glatt has another major player in the field, the speedy Suzie Qzz Brother (TOC=9/2; ML=6-1), who may be the controlling speed. His numbers have risen with each of his six career outings, and with another forward move today the son of Commissioner should be a strong factor every step of the way. Also worth using on your ticket is Crash Corrigan (TOC=3-1; ML=7/2) , drawn nicely outside and most comfortable as a late-running sprinter. He’s likely to settle early and then produce a dangerous bid from the quarter pole home. Though winless in six starts over the Santa Anita main track, he’s hit the board five times and should at least get a piece of it again today.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 8: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 9-Warren’s Showtime; 12-Leggs Galore
Forecast: The analytics prefer Leggs Galore, but we’ll give Warren’s Showtime (TOC=3-1; ML=5/2) a slight edge on top while including both in our rolling exotics. ‘Showtime is a genuine and versatile state-bred stakes performer that has won six of her 12 career starts over the local lawn and been successful sprinting and routing and down this Hillside course as well. She projects to settle off the pace and then come blasting home, and with some pace up front to compliment her style and good racing luck through the lane the C. Lewis-trained daughter of Clubhouse Ride should be able to tag the speed. Leggs Galore (TOC=7/5; ML=3-1) has beaten our top pick in the past and could easily do it again. Freshened since August and returning to a sprint, the P. D’Amato-trained mare is the quickest of the quick and will take this field a very long way on the front end if not pressured early. Her record of four wins from six starts over the Santa Anita turf course clearly qualifies her as a “horse for course” and the analytics say she’s the one they all have to beat.
Notable Workouts:
Alice Marble (January 9, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B
Easy early, then finished quite well without being asked while wearing down workmate Loma Vista (5f, 1:01.1h) close home, splits of :25.1, :37.1 and 1:01.1, a full second slower on our watches than given but fine, nonetheless. Has gone through her conditions nicely, gets tested with stakes types on Cal Cup day.
View Workout Video
Super Game (January 8, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3h). Grade: B-
Finished a short head behind Ferrariao (same time) after breaking off about a length behind outside, under restraint most of the way (niggled at late), final three furlongs in :11.3 and :36.3 for B. Koriner. Maintenance drill, holds her form.
View Workout Video
Leggs Galore (January 9, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3h TT). Grade: B Solo training track drill for P. D’Amato, never really asked, final three furlongs in :36.3. Freshened since August, seems fine and loves to fire fresh.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 9: Post: 4:06 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 3-Brickyard Ride; 8-Colt Fiction; 4-Positivity
Forecast: We were prepared to use Brickyard Road (TOC=6-1; ML=9/5) as a single in his year’s California Cup Sprint – a race he easily won last year – but the layoff is a bit of a concern, and the analytics aren’t impressed, so we’ll put him on top but include a couple of others for protection. ‘Ride is brutally fast when he’s on his game and he’s a six-time winner (from nine starts) over the Santa Anita main track, so in a race in which he projects as the controlling the speed it’s hard to imagine the son of Clubhouse Ride not gaining control early and rolling all the way to the wire. Colt Fiction (TOC=3-1; ML=3-1) lands the cozy outside draw and looks like the one to fear most. He’s beaten Clubhouse Ride in the past (last May at this distance), and after being freshened since November the W. Spawr-trained gelding should be primed and ready. Positivity (TOC=4-1; ML=3-1) is fast on numbers and is tough and genuine. Twice a winner from three starts over the Santa Anita main track, the son of Paynter switches to F. Prat and should be set for a career top effort.
Notable Workouts:
Brickyard Ride (January 8, 5f, Santa Anita, 1:00hg). Grade: B
No blinkers in solo five furlong gate drill for C. Lewis, splits of :24.3, :35.4, :47.1 and 1:00 flat, easy early, asked a bit midway and then allowed to coast in the final furlong. Solid drill, nothing flashy, usually keen in the afternoon with the hood. Likely to display his usually intense speed in the Cal Cup Sprint.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 10: Post: 4:35 PT Grade: B-
Use (In order of preference): 6-Eleuthera; 3-Vivacious Vanessa; 1-Big Novel; 7-Professors’ Pride
Forecast: The finale – the California Cup Oaks – is the deepest, toughest race on the card. Let’s try to hit a grand slam with the 15-1 shot Eleuthera (TOC=32-1; ML=15-1) . She’s a maiden but is returning to state-bred competition after an excellent runner-up over this course and distance last month while earning a speed figure that makes her a legitimate contender even against this tougher group. The addition of blinkers shouldn’t hurt, so if the B. Cecil-trained daughter of Square Eddie can continue her improving pattern she could pull off a major surprise. Vivacious Vanessa (TOC=5-1; ML=4-1) broke her maiden over this turf course at this one mile distance during the fall meeting and then finished a distant third when trying the Del Mar dirt track in the Golden State Juvenile Fillies Stakes when backing up to a sprint in her most recent outing. Freshened since early November, stretching out again, and returning to turf, the daughter of Not This Time should settle early and then produce a serious kick from the quarter pole home. Big Novel (TOC=9/2; ML=4-1) is guaranteed an ideal ground-saving trip from her favorable rail post and as a daughter of Mr. Big should move up considerably in her first outing on the lawn. Her recent works have been excellent and the switch to Johnny V. is another positive factor. Professors’ Pride (TOC=9-1; ML=5/2) has been perfect in two starts and was dominant in her victory in the Soviet Problem S. at Los Alamitos in December. She continues to train well for E. Truman and will be dangerous once again if she can transfer her dirt form to grass.
Notable Workouts:
Big Novel (January 4, Santa Anita. 5f, 1:00.4h TT). Grade: B+ Mostly on her own in solo training track drill for J. Sadler, splits of :24.1, :35.4 and 1:00.3, good move while maintaining her edge. Would love to see her on turf (Mr. Big) and should move forward with age and experience.
View Workout Video
Vivacious Vanessa (January 2, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:13.4h). Grade: B+
In company inside Micro Share (5f, 1:01.2h) and was the better of the two through the lane before continuing out an extra furlong to the seven-eighths pole while coming home in :24.3 (to the wire) and then out in :36.4 (ridden pretty good in the late stages). Loved her maiden win on grass and may prefer turf, has a chance to develop nicely with added distance. Plenty fit.
View Workout Video
Dendera (January 9, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h TT). Grade: B-
Splits :23.4 and :48.3 on our watches, some coaxing through the lane. Disappointed at Los Alamitos but probably is more comfortable on grass.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
