October 7, 2022
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade:
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Alexander Helios; 4-Heartbreak Kid
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Five of the nine entrants in this mile grass affair for juveniles exit the same modest heat at Del Mar in August. We’ll take an aggressive stand and toss all of them out, leaving us with two main players, one at a nice price and the other the likely favorite and one to beat. Alexander Helios finished unplaced in his first two starts, both dirt sprints in very strong company, but today stretches out to a distance he’s bred to handle and a surface that is likely to bring out his best. The blinkers-off angle is another positive factor for the Michael McCarthy-trained juvenile, who continues to train like a colt that has more than enough natural talent to be a major player against this moderate group. With the switch to excellent turf jockey Umberto Rispoli, the son of Cairo Prince offers an excellent price chance in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics at 8-1 on the morning line. Heartbreak Kid was an admirable third in a legitimate race at Del Mar last month while wide throughout yet finishing with courage in a race that already has proven productive. The Doug O’Neill-trained colt doesn’t have a massive turn of foot – he’s more of a steady, grinding type – but he’s strong in the speed figure department with further improvement likely.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:28 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Established; 6-Manitowish
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: We’ll double the second race, an extended sprint for $20,000 older claimers. Established has been quite popular at the claim box – he’s changed hands in each of his last three starts – and today makes his first start for Tim Yakteen, who shows solid stats with the first-off-the-claim angle. With a win and a second in two prior outings over the Santa Anita main track, the five-year-old gelding seems likely to produce a forward move following a solid runner-up effort at Del Mar at this level last month. Joe Bravo stays aboard, and from his rail post the son of Constitution should comfortably settle in the second flight and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. Not surprising, he’s won three races (with one second) in four career starts at this six and half-furlong distance that promotes his closing style. Manitowish, third in the same race Established exits, is a two-time winner over the local main track, goes from the rail to the cozy outside box, and makes a favorable jockey switch to Ramon Vasquez. Having hit the board in each of his last five starts and making his first start since being claimed by Rene Amescua, the son of Carpe Diem is a “must use” on your ticket.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Flame McGoon; 3-Super Renee; 6-Cause She’s a Lady
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Here’s a spread race for starter allowance fillies and mares over six furlong over the flat turf course. Flame McGoon, a sharp-closing third last time out at Del Mar, may have discovered her niche as a late-running turf sprinter, and with today’s extra furlong to work with the daughter of Stanford looks capable of producing the last run. She has produced rising speed figures with each outing and with another forward move today should be hard to deny. Two others are worth using on your ticket as well. Super Renee is another that has yet to take a backward move in five lifetime outings, and in a race that projects a moderate early pace the Super Saver filly should be within striking range throughout, maybe even on the lead. Cause She’s a Lady tries turf for the first time – there’s no reason she shouldn’t handle it – and following a bullet half mile training track drill (4f, :47.4h TT, fastest of 24) just six days ago the Doug O’Neill-trained filly clearly is doing well with room to improve.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Bowl of Cherries
Backups/Savers: 1-Wild Arch
Forecast: Bowl of Cherries is wheeled back in six days following a solid runner-up in an open $20,000 claiming level and today’s extra furlong of this easier, restricted (nw-3) affair should complement her second flight, stalking style. If she can handle the quick turnaround, the Bob Hess, Jr.-trained filly should justify her 6/5 morning line status. Wild Arch always has preferred to finish second or third (seven times) rather than win (twice) but she has a prior victory over the local main track, is solid on numbers, and based on the projected pace flow should draft into a comfortable second flight, ground-saving position. Toss her in as a backup or a saver.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Liberty Forever; 7-Oubabe; 6-Mobou
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Liberty Forever has several angles in his chart that we like, so we’ll put him on top. This will be his first try around two turns (his sire, Dixie Chatter, was a Grade-1 winner over this course and distance) and that, combined with the always-dangerous blinkers off angle, the retention of top jockey Juan Hernandez, a trainer (Peter Miller) who boasts superior stats with the dirt-to-turf angle, and numbers that fit, make him quite intriguing at 5/2 on the morning line. He’ll get the bulk of our play but there are two others that have strong credentials, as well. Oubabe pressed a hot pace and found enough reserve energy late to graduate in his ninth career start at Del Mar while earning a speed figures that makes him a major contender right back despite the class hike. He’s looked good in the morning in the interim (see below) and will be a major threat if he can avoid getting caught up in a speed duel with our top pick. Mobou is racing in sharp form and will be dangerous with a repeat of either one of his last two starts. The Uncle Mo gelding was a solid runner-up in a similar affair at Del Mar last month in a race that was flattered when winner Kings River Knight returned to score up north over the weekend. He also has a prior win over the local lawn and a stalking style that should ensure a trouble-free trip.
Notable Workouts:
Oubabe (Oct. 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h TT). Grade: B+
Broke off a length in front of Spirit Maker (5f, 1:00.4h TT) and received the slower time while finishing a neck clear at the wire but was clearly the best of the team while breezing through the lane (and galloping out nicely) while workmate had to be niggled at. Looks good, got a confidence-building win at Del Mar and seems to have come on nicely since that race.
View Workout Video
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RACE 6: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Westphal; 3-Maynard; 4-Granada Flavor
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: This main track miler for restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claimers is borderline inscrutable. We’ll go three-deep but not with a great degree of confidence. Westphal has rising numbers and enough tactical speed to secure a comfortable stalking position. He seems as good as any. Maynard beat maidens in his sixth career start last month at Del Mar with a career top speed figure. He’ll need another forward move to produce a repeat score but may have it in him. Granada Flavor has a prior win over the local main track and can finish a bit, so with enough pace up front he should be heard from late. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:05 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Big Beauty ; 8-Big Summer
Backups/savers: 4-Issa Court
Forecast: Big Beauty switches to her preferred surface in this downhill turf dash for first-level allowance state-bred fillies and mares. She’s best when held up early and allowed to produce a late run and seems certain to receive that type of ride from Juan Hernandez. A bullet recent dirt workout (see below) is noteworthy, so we’re expecting the daughter of Mr. Big to produce a major effort. Big Summer earned by far a career top number when second in a fast, highly rated turf sprint at Del Mar last time out. She likes to stalk, pounce, and go and from her good outside draw the Carla Gaines-trained filly seems certain to fold into a perfect spot. She is fastest on numbers and is the deserved and legitimate 9/5 morning line favorite. Issa Court has won her last pair in good style, and while she’s got some work to do in the speed figure department the Dan Blacker-trained filly has plenty of room to improve. Toss her in somewhere as a backup.
Notable Workouts:
Big Beauty (Sept. 29, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4h). Grade: B+
Excellent main drill proving a length best inside Real Fire (5f, 1:00.4h for J. Sadler, mostly on her own while drawing clear in the late stages with something left, splits of :34.4 and 1:00 flat on our watches. Effective sprinting or routing and seems set for a career top effort.
View Workout Video
Issa Court (Sept. 30, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4h TT). Grade: B+
Blinkers, shadow roll, even but best inside Brit’s Wit (same time) in strong training track drill for D. Blacker, final quarter mile in :24 flat. Has won routing and sprinting and on both turf and dirt. Likely to continue to improve with experience.
View Workout Video
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RACE 8: Post: 4:35 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Leyas Candy
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Leyas Candy seems solid in this state-bred allowance optional claiming main track sprint. The Mark Glatt-trained colt earned a career top speed figure in his fourth career outing when beating maidens at Del Mar last time out and there’s every reason to believe he can step forward again based on a sizzling recent workout (see below). The sophomore son of Danzing Candy displayed improved early speed in his maiden win and he projects to be on or near the lead in a field lacking zip. At 9/5 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Leyas Candy (Sept. 24, Santa Anita, 5f, :58.3h). Grade: B+
In blinkers, picked him up entering the far turn tying in with the Baffert team of Under the Stars (5f, :59.4h) and Midnight Memories (5f, 1:00.4h) and was breezing through the lane outside to draw clear in good fashion, :47.3 for the final three furlongs, much slower than given but visually pleasing, nonetheless. Graduated in good style last time out and has moved forward since then based on this drill.
View Workout Video
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RACE 9: Post: 5:05 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Americaredwhiteblu
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Americaredwhiteblu just won a slightly softer starter’s allowance race with a career top number by more than six lengths over the Del Mar main track, and if he can come close to that type of performance over the Santa Anita grass he’ll win right back. As a son of American Pharoah from the mare by Hard Spun, he should be even better on turf. Yes, he was unplaced in his only prior race on the sod, but that was in his debut sprinting at Fair Grounds, so we’re not going to worry about it. We’ll make him a win play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to his morning line of 5/2.
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