“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-The Key Is Unity; 5-Baldoro
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: The Key Is Unity was a bit unlucky when going down by a head in a similar maiden $50,000 turf affair last month and today gets an extra furlong to work with. As a one-paced grinding type, the Bill Spawr-trained gelding should appreciate today’s longer trip and with continued improvement may be capable of producing a winning late bid. Baldoro is worth using on your ticket as well. Freshened since June and exiting a series of tougher maiden special weight affairs, the Leonard Powell-trained colt is solid in the speed figure department, picks up Juan Hernandez, and appears to have found his proper level.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:31 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Butkus 3-Shady Empire
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Butkus is racing in good form and a repeat of either one of his last two starts should be good enough to handle this modest assignment. He’s lightly raced (just nine starts) and has room for improvement that most of the others don’t. Shady Empire has been winless for a couple of years and clearly isn’t one to trust, but in this restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claimer the Kristin Mulhall-trained gelding is somewhat of a contender. First or second in four of nine career starts over the local main track, the son of Empire Way has recent numbers that fit with this group and in his second start off a layoff he has a right to produce a forward move.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Wrong Turn Cupid; 7-R Girl’s Werth It
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Wrong Turn Cupid shows up in a $20,000 claiming grass sprint for the first time in her brief career after falling short in state-bred allowance company in her last two outings, most recently in her first start in almost a year. This is a realistic class drop for this four year old filly, who probably has her share of issues, but if she can produce a forward move she should be capable of getting back on track. R Girl’s Werth It flashed good speed for a half before faltering in a much tougher $50,000 starter’s allowance sprint at Del Mar in her first start since arriving from Gulfstream Park. If she can shake loose early without undue pressure, the Mike Puype-trained filly may take this field a long way.
Notable Workouts:
R Girl’s Werth It (Oct. 8, Santa Anita, 4f, :48h TT). Grade: B
In blinkers, in hand early, chirped to late and finished with interest, final three furlongs in :35.2. Freshened since late August and appears perked up for a good effort.
View Workout Video
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RACE 4: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-A Little Bit Crazy; 1-Tecumseh Caroline
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: A Little Bit Crazy turns back to a dirt sprint after failing as the favorite in her last two outings over a mile on grass. The switch in surface and the shortening in trip should have a positive effect on her form, so let’s put the Jonathan Wong-trained filly on top in this shallow maiden special weight state-bred affair for older fillies and mares. Tecumseh Caroline is strictly the one to beat. Solid on numbers and showing a good third place performance at Del Mar in her only prior main track outing, the daughter of Grazen isn’t a quick type and is drawn uncomfortably the rail, but in a six runner field she should be able to secure a decent trip and then have every chance.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Oncoming
Backups/savers: 2-Barnfield
Forecast: Oncoming will have to overcome his extreme outside draw in this grass miler for restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claimers, and with the auxiliary rail set at 30 feet it won’t be an easy task. However, the son of Quality Road, now in the Eddie Truman barn, has speed figures that tower over this field, so with any kind of decent racing luck he should be able to regain his winning form. For protection, you may want to include Barnfield on your ticket as a backup or a saver. The John Sadler-trained gelding exits a tougher starter’s allowance race and is lightly raced with room to improve. The son of Lookin At Lucky should be heard from late.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:40 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Silver Lightening; 3-Smiling Princess
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Silver Lightening was a disappointing fourth when a distant fourth and failing to duplicate her impressive debut maiden claiming victory at Del Mar two weeks previous. Perhaps the quick turnaround had a negative effect, so after being given a two month vacation she could easily bounce today. It’s encouraging that the Doug O’Neill-trained daughter of Union Rags remains protected, and with a healthy series of recent workouts on her local tab she should have every right to step forward. Smiling Princess broke her maiden two races back by seven lengths vs. maiden claimers, returned to dispose of a $32,000 field of winners by four widening lengths, and today is protected vs. starter optional claimers while seeking her third straight score. The concern is that her two victories were earned at Los Alamitos, and form from the Orange County track doesn’t always hold up at Santa Anita. We’ll see what she’s made of today.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-The Great Haynes; 3-Queen Molotov
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: The Great Haynes, first or second in six of 12 career starts, is solid on numbers and appears ready for a forward move in this allowance optional claiming turf sprint for state-bred fillies and mares. She likes to settle early and produce a late kick, and over a course that often favors the closers in one-turn races the daughter of Haynesfield should offer decent value at or near her morning line of 4-1. Queen Molotov is strictly the one to beat. She is the fastest in the field on pure numbers and projects to be forwardly place throughout and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. She is based at Golden Gate Fields and her recent workouts over that track’s all-weather surface are impressive.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:44 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Granada Flavor
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Granada Flavor has much in his favor in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 main track miler, and with a repeat of any one of his last three starts the Brian Koriner-trained gelding should be along in time. He was more than six lengths clear of the rest when beaten a nose last time out at this level three weeks ago and had a nice recent breeze to tick him over for a top performance today. At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:16 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Gillian Elizabeth; 4-Buzz of New York
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Gillian Elizabeth had a bit of rough go when beaten as the favorite in a similar turf miler for first-level allowance fillies and mare but with a clear trip today the Carla Gaines-trained filly can make amends. A two-time winner (from three starts) over the local lawn, she stretches out again to her preferred trip, retains regular pilot Joe Bravo, and should draft into a favorable second flight, stalking position. Buzz of New York, in the frame in six of seven starts since arriving from Ireland, earned a career top speed figure when a sharp runner-up at this level at Del Mar last time out and a repeat of that performance today makes her a major threat. She will be running on from off the pace. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play, with a slight preference on top to Gillian Elizabeth.
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