“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Give Me the Lute; 5-Westward Look; 3-Subsidize
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Four of the seven entrants in this $32,000 claiming turf sprint exit the same race won by Give Me the Lute last month. Westward Look, who finished fourth in that race, was beaten only a length in that race, so it’s clear that the field pretty much finished in a heap. ‘Lute was the favorite and delivered but was straight as a string to do so and today picks up two pounds, for whatever that’s worth. In a race that probably should be avoided, we’ll spread the race while including the three listed above. :
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Court Snoot; 2-Miss Kaline.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Court Snoot was once fairly well regarded but today she plummets to the $16,000 level while obviously be culled from the stable after a series of dull performances. She’s clearly faster than these on numbers with anything close to her best race, so we’ll put her on top by default. Miss Kaline has hit the board in three of her last four starts, though her speed figures aren’t much. If ‘Snoot doesn’t fire, she is the one most likely to be take advantage.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Alternate Rock; 4-Phenom
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Alternate Rock shows up in a claimer for the first time and should greatly appreciate the class drop. She’ll likely draft into an ideal stalking position and then have every chance to close the deal from the quarter pole to the wire. The race has two other committed speed types so patient tactics should be employed by the good trainer/jockey combo of D. O’Neill and A. Fresu. Phenom is another being risked for the $50,000 for the first time after a series of allowance races but she’s a one dimensional front runner and will have to deal with the very quick Ko Olina in a projected race shape that could cancel out both of them. Nonetheless, she has won over this course in the past and has trained well enough to be fit and ready in her first outing since April, so we’ll toss her in.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Tokamak
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Tokamak returns to the main track and ran well enough on dirt three races back to handle this very soft bottom-rung maiden $20,000 field. Based on speed figures, anything close to his best race should be more than good enough, so if you can get close to his morning line of 3-1 the Eoin Harty-trained gelding will offer a reasonable gamble in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:04 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Barely Functional; 5-Geezer; 3-Discretionary Day
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: We’ll go three deep in the fifth race, a downhill slalom event for state-bred first level allowance older horses. Barely Functional finished a distant second in a fast, highly rated off the turf affair won by Tapatio Leo last month and faces nobody even remotely that good today. In the frame in all four starts over the local flat turf course, the Antonio Garcia-trained sophomore has the proper second flight, stalking style for the tricky Hillside course and seems likely to fire his best shot. Geezer, a troubled fifth in the same race our top pick exits, finished a distant but reasonable second in his only prior grass outing at Del Mar and probably is better than his 8-1 morning line gives him credit for. Discretionary Day turns back from a series of route outings and has the kind of early speed that will make him dangerous if he can shake loose early. He has habit of outrunning his odds, so let’s make him a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:34 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Flat On
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: This maiden $20,000 main track miler is a split of the fourth race and on paper is similarly soft. Flat On has had eight chances while managing just one third place finish but he’s been facing infinitely tougher maiden special weight foes and in doing so was able to earn speed figures that are superior to par for this level. The first time-in-a-claimer angle usually is quite effective under these circumstances, so let’s go with the Peter Eurton-trained son of Uncle Mo on top but not take much less than the 2-1 that he’s listed on the morning line.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:04 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Pioneer Prince
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Pioneer Prince was given a very easy run over this course and distance in his only start in June, racing in some traffic under a tight hold, swinging widest of all entering the lane and then coming home without being asked much to wind up 10th of 12, beaten seven lengths. A $250,000 OBS April sale purchase in 2022, the Richard Mandella-trained ridgling retains Mike Smith, shows a series of recent workouts that should have him plenty fit, and is likely to be much more serious this time around in a field containing no world beaters. As such, the son of Pioneer ofthe Nile is an interesting play at 3-1 on the morning line and can be backed in the win pool and as an aggressive rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:34 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Report
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: We loved the way Report graduated at first asking despite being under pressure from the rail throughout yet finding extra when it was needed in the final sixteenth. She’s better than the number gives her credit for and today has the luxury of shortening to six furlongs and landing the cozy outside post. She’s 8/5 on the morning line and may go a bit shorter, but at any price she’s a logical and confident rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:04 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Grazed; 3-Catemaco
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Grazed earned a career top speed figure when beating state-bred maidens over the flat course last month, doing so with a good stalking trip and sa harp late kick to win going away like a gelding that can repeat on the raise. The Mark Glatt-trained son of Grazen should employ similar tactics in this Hillside dash and be tough to beat. Catemaco probably is worth including on the main ticket, as well. He had a rough trip when fifth in a quick abbreviated dash at Del Mar that makes him dangerous with today’s extra distance to work with. He’ll be the one to worry about from off the pace in the closing stages.
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