“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Crypto Man
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Quintecents.
Forecast: Crypto Man earned a career top speed figure when overcoming traffic trouble in the upper stretch to rally eagerly to be third (should have been second) in a fast, highly rated race for this level last month. The Simon Callaghan-trained gelding lands the favorable rail and is a guaranteed a ground-saving, second flight trip that is likely to produce a maiden diploma. He’s a logical rolling exotic single, but at 8/5 on the morning line probably won’t offer much in the way of wagering value.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Eltonsingsanother; 3-Come Join the Band
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Eltonsingsanother produced a significant forward move – her Beyer number improved 20 points – between her first and second outings when she pressed the pace and hung on well to be third in a stronger than par race for maiden $50,000 state-bred claiming fillies and mares last month. Nothing much more should be needed today, assuming she breaks cleanly from the rail. Stranger danger is represented by Come Join the Band, a first timer by Stanford that appears to have some size and scope and looked fairly decent in a recent half mile solo breeze while under a nice hold throughout. She won’t have to be a world beater to act with these, so we’ll include her on our main rolling exotic ticket.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Red Diamond
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Red Diamond is clearly better than those she is facing in this restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claiming turf sprint for fillies and mares but the layoff since April is a concern, as is the rider, who has had only three mounts all year long and is winless. The class drop actually is realistic for the Ron McAnally-trained six-year-old mare with just nine career starts (and who would have the heart to claim her, anyway?), so we’ll assume she’s healthy enough. The good news is she has a history of firing fresh and the work tab should have her fit enough.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Barbera
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Barbera is a consistent if not modest claimer and seems well-placed to score again after winning a restricted (nw-2) $16,000 seller at Del Mar last month. Comfortably drawn outside, she can dictate the pace flow with a versatile style that can be effective on the lead or from a second flight, stalking position. She’s had three easy breezes since raced to tick her over, retains “win rider” Diego Herrera, and is the logical top pick at 9/5 on the morning line.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:04 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Princess Midnight; 4-Christina’s Candy.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: In just her second career start, Princess Midnight turned in a huge performance at this level when pressing hot early fractions, disposing of her pace rival at the furlong pole and then hanging on bravely to be second while earning a speed figure 16 points better than her sprint debut the previous spring. The daughter of Midnight Storm probably won’t need much better today to graduate, though there is some concern that she could be pressured early by the sprinter-stretching-out Christina’s Candy, who is drawn right alongside her. Her work pattern since raced is healthy and steady, and she is reunited with the barn’s “go-to” rider Kyle Frey (who aboard in her debut), so we’ll go with the Mike Puype-trained filly on top and accept a price that is at or near her morning line of 5/2. Christina’s Candy stretches out for the first time after four sprint outings but will remove blinkers, so rating tactics might be employed. The Phil D’Amato-trained daughter of Twirling Candy gets a break in the weights with the switch to competent bug boy Torrealba while taking the all-important class drop from maiden to maiden claiming.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:34 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Beau Soleil; 4-Super Enticing
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Misty Muppet.
Forecast: Beau Soleil and Super Enticing finished first and second, respectively, in a maiden $50,000 juvenile filly sprint at Del Mar and meet again in this starter’s allowance dash in which they are the main contenders once again. The former quickly made the running through moderate early splits and kept on going to win without a real challenge and shows a strong work pattern since that race that indicates another forward move is likely. The latter remains a maiden but was more than four lengths clear of the rest when chasing home ‘Soleil despite racing along the deeper rail and is another that is likely to step forward. We’ll try to get by using just these two are on our main rolling exotic ticket.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:04 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Turn On The Jets
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Unconquerable Keen.
Forecast: Turn on The Jets shows up in an open allowance abbreviated turf sprint over the flat course and should outclass his five rivals with anything close to his best race. He’s winless in three previous outings over the Santa Anita lawn (two of which were on the Hillside Course) but on pure numbers the Irish-bred gelding appears to have found a winning spot.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:34 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Halo Uncle; 3-Mr Big Bucks.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Last Call Paul.
Forecast: Halo Uncle returns to the maiden $50,000 ranks after finishing a respectable fifth at 42-1 in straight maiden California-bred company and appears to have found his friends in this moderate main track sprint for juveniles. The rail post is of some concern, but if the Jeff Bonde-trained gelding can avoid trouble he should be forward placed throughout and have every chance. Bug Boy Aguilar stays aboard and knows him well. Mr Big Bucks missed as the favorite when second at this level in a slowly run race at Los Alamitos last month but has trained reasonably well since and should be able to produce a forward move. In a shallow affair, he’s worth tossing in.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:04 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Asada Fries; 1-Wailea Sunset
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-O K Rose; 6-Beautiful Janet.
Forecast: Five of the nine entrants in the state-bred maiden special weight turf miler for juvenile fillies exit the same sprint race won by Petit Filet in an off-the-grass dash last month. Among those returning, Asada Fries is the one to beat after finishing second in that race, and with the type of early zip she displayed in that outing the daughter of Clubhouse Ride projects to be the controlling speed. If she’s ever going to be able to stay two turns, it’ll most likely be in her first try, but the fact that she didn’t change leads is a cause for concern. In her debut race that may have flattered her, Wailea Sunset was green and far, far back in the early stages before taking hold and finishing with interest to wind up fourth, beaten just four lengths. The race shape (fast early, slow early) most likely made her late bid something of an optical illusion, but with a pedigree that suggests she should run all day the daughter of Mr. Big has to be included in a below standard race.
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