“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 11:30 PT Grade: A
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Ultra Power
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Ultra Power raced far below expectations in his debut at Del Mar when despite being well backed on the tote he wound up last of six, beaten more than 17 lengths. However, the son of Curlin produced a massive amount of improvement in his next outing at Los Alamitos when checking in four lengths clear of the rest while earning a nice speed figure in what has proven to be a productive seven furlong maiden special weight affair. From the extraordinary race mare Unique Bella, this promising 2-year-old returned to breeze five furlongs in :59 4/5 from the gate while tons best over a stablemate and giving every indication that he’ll thoroughly enjoy the stretch out in trip. Frankie picks up the mount, and in a race without much speed he should have this colt on or near the lead every step of the way. At anything near his morning line of 3-1, the Bob Baffert-trained colt in a strong win play and confident rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:05 PT Grade: A
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Mirinda
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Mirinda demolished a Del Mar maiden field by more than six lengths in her debut and did it easily and with plenty left. She returns in this California-bred stakes for juvenile fillies and will be a short price – and deservedly so – to take the class hike in stride. The daughter of Mitole clearly is a filly with high quality and has trained in superb fashion in the interim, so while she won’t need to improve to win she’ll probably step forward before going on to bigger and better things. She’s a logical rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post: 12:40 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Elm Drive; 2-White Moonlight; 12-Playlist
Backups/savers/Underneath: 13-Rose Maddox.
Forecast: Elm Drive is a perfect one-for-one over the tricky Hillside Turf Course, and while she has plenty of early zip she showed in that sharp tally in the Mizdirection Stakes in May that she can be equally effective employing stalk and pounce tactics. Slightly below form in her most recent three races, she’s returning off a five week freshening with a series of sharp local workouts, and with the switch to Flavian Pratt the daughter of Mohaymen seems likely to bounce back in a big way. At 6-1 on the morning line, the Phil D’Amato-trained filly offers a good gamble. White Moonlight is a sneaky 6-year-old Godolphin mare from Europe with Timeform Ratings that make her dangerous. She had excuses when unplaced in the Oak Tree Stakes-G3 at Goodwood last time out but before that captured a pair of listed events in such a manner that makes her a “must use.” Playlist is an intriguing Eastern shipper with New York form that makes her a solid fit on this circuit at this level. She earned a powerful speed figure when second facing the boys in the Franklin-Simpson Stakes-G2 at Kentucky Derby in September and her stalking style she should be effective in this downhill slalom event.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:15 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): Private Gem
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Private Gem turned in a miraculous winning performance in his debut despite a horrendous trip marked by severe traffic trouble before producing a furious late kick after finally getting clear 70 yards from the wire. The margin of victory was a desperate nose, but he was several lengths the best, and this talented 2-year-old seems likely to provide a quick dividend for trainer Mark Glatt, who appears to have made a terrific $50,000 claim with the son of Lookin At Lucky. The speed figure earned in victory matches up nicely with the others and given today’s extra distance we’re expecting him to score right back in this year’s edition of the $175,000 Golden State Juvenile Stakes. At 8-1 on the morning line (hope we get it) and with Flavian Prat picking up the mount we’ll make him a strong value play in the win pool and a single in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Big Evs; 1-Crimson Advocate; 2-No Nay Mets; 3-Tiger Belle
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 9-Amidst Waves; 11-Slider.
Forecast: As you would expect in a Grade 1 stakes over five furlongs on grass, this year’s renewal of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint is overloaded with blazing types, perhaps none quicker than Big Evs, who demolished his rivals in the Flying Childers Stakes-G2 at Doncaster in his most recent appearance in mid-September. The Michael Appleby-trained colt was previously successful in the Molecomb Stakes-G2 at Goodwood and before that the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot, so he’s hardly a one hit wonder. He’s also won on firm ground and should love the extremely glib grass surface at Santa Anita. However, he’d better break quickly because drawn directly inside of him, from the rail out, are Queen Mary Stakes-G1 winner Crimson Advocate, who outran 25 rivals in that early summer five furlong affair at Royal Ascot; No Nay Mets, a rocket ship who has won his last two turf sprints by daylight but against lesser foes; and Tiger Belle, who wired an excellent field in the Prix d’Arenberg at Longchamp in late August and reportedly excels over top of the ground. What happens if they all hook up early and create a pace meltdown? That’s why this race is borderline inscrutable. A spread strategy using as many as your budget allows might be the safest way to go.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:40 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Tamara
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 12-Just F Y I; 1-Candied
Forecast: Tamara wasn’t even favored in her racing debut because she had trained good but not great leading up to that race at Del Mar in mid-August. Well, she ran great. And she ran great again when winning the Del Mar Debutante-G1 the following month while earning a speed figure that should more than sufficient to solidify her status as the best in her class in this year’s renewal of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Two turns not only won’t be a problem, but she actually should be even better over a distance of ground (Beholder was). Drawn comfortably in the middle of the field and likely to secure an ideal second flight, talking position, the daughter of Bolt d’Oro is listed at 4/5 on the morning line and seems certain to leave as the shortest priced favorite on either of the Cup’s two day programs.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:20 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Porta Fortuna; 9-Carla’s Way; 5-Content
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Buchu; 11-She Feels Pretty.
Forecast: Here’s another extremely difficult race for juvenile fillies, this one over a mile on grass that brings together an international field loaded with talent. Based strictly on evaluations from video replays, the Europeans are a powerful lot, an impression that is confirmed by the always dependable Timeform Ratings. The best of the overseas gang might very well be Porto Fortuna, who delivered a career top performance when winning the prestigious Cheveley Park S.-G1 at Newmarket five weeks ago. The concern is the stretch out to a mile, a distance that you would think would be within her range, but maybe not. A winner of four of six career starts including the Albany Stakes-G3 over firm turf, the daughter of Caravaggio has been given a proper foundation to tackle a longer trip, and as we always say, if she’s ever going to handle a distance of ground, it’ll be in her first try. Carla’s Way looked quite good winning the Rockfel Stakes-G2 in Newmarket in late September over seven furlongs, and if you can win at that trip over the testing Newmarket straightway course, you certainly should be able to handle a mile at Santa Anita, the extra turn notwithstanding. For whatever it’s worth, Porto Fortuna was assigned a 97 Timeform mark while Carla’s Way achieved a 96. The third European invader we’ll toss in is the Aidan O’Brien-trained Content, who was anchored back to last in the one mile Staffordstown Stud S.-G3 at The Curragh in her most recent start and then when given her head cut loose with an impressive turn of foot to win going away like a high class filly. She had previously been allowed to barrel off on the front end but the change in tactics made all the difference and points her out as a legitimate off-the-pace threat at 15-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Locked; 9-Fierceness; 4-Timberlake.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Prince of Monaco; 10-Muth; 3-Wine Me Up.
Forecast: Here’s yet another challenging affair, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, a wide open affair in which a legitimate case can be made for at least a half dozen entrants, and maybe more. Two year old’s this time of the year are in different stages of development, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see one or more produce a huge leap. Locked overcame an extremely wide trip to register a highly impressive (and highly rated) victory in the Breeders’ Futurity-G1 at Keeneland four weeks ago in a performance that verified the favorable impression he made when graduating at Saratoga the previous month. Taken at face value, this effort was the best we’ve seen in the division, but it obviously was taxing, and we have to wonder if it chips away at the conditioning of the Gun Runner colt from Todd Pletcher’s barn. Stable mate Fierceness missed the break in the Champagne, rushed up prematurely, and then was spent and eased through the lane in a race that is a complete toss pout. Prior to that outing, the City of Light colt turned heads in his 10 length debut maiden romp while earning a number that is as good as anything in this race. Timberlake certainly was pleasing in his Champagne Stakes-G1 romp, but that race came over a sloppy surface, so it’s possible the wet track moved him up (we think not, this colt is plain good). Then you have the Baffert trio of Prince of Monaco, Muth, and Wine Me Up, who have the benefit of the home track advantage. All three have a right to win based on several positive factors in their respective past performance charts.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:40 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-River Tiber
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Unquestionable; 9-Endlessly; 14-Carson’s Run
Forecast: Okay, finally, an easy one (no, not really). The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf-G1 is similar to the fillies race in that it contains strong representation from Europe, topped by River Tiber, never off the board in five starts on a resume that includes three wins, powerful Timeform Ratings, and a significant score at Royal Ascot in the 20-runner Coventry Stakes during in the summer. Third in a subsequent pair of Group 1 affairs but losing nothing in defeat in either one, the Aidan O’Brien-trained colt stretches out from six furlongs to a mile, but we seriously doubt he’ll have any issue with the extra distance and the additional turn. From his comfortable inside draw, the Irish-bred colt should inherit an ideal stalking, ground saving early position and then have every chance from there. For those seeking a rolling exotic single on an otherwise extremely challenging Friday card, he’s a viable candidate to fill the role.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:10 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Ghost of Midnight
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Bus Buzz; 3-Hejazi
Forecast: Ghost of Midnight was cut out to be a stakes quality runner but various setbacks delayed his career until age five at Del Mar, where he debuted in a bottom rung maiden $20,000 claimer that he won for fun (and, luckily for his connections, wasn’t claimed). Protected in starter’s allowance company in his next start, the son of Ghostzapper was even more impressive while earning a speed figure 14 points better than the one his debut was assigned. He’ll need another forward move to remain unbeaten in this first level allowance sprint, but we think he’ll be up to it. The Mark Glatt-trained gelding continues to impress in the morning and projects to settle somewhere in mid pack behind what should be quick early fractions and then take hold when given his cue at the head of the lane. He’s 4-1 on the morning line and we’ll take that if we can get it.
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