June 9, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Single Track Mind; 6-Admiral Halsey
Backups/savers: 4-Belmont Bill.
Forecast: The opener is a grass grab bag for $62,500 maiden claimers that requires some coverage in rolling exotic play. We’ll go three deep and hope that’s enough. Single Track Mind makes the pivotal class drop from maiden to maiden claiming and may have finally found his friends in his ninth career start. Relatively strong in the speed figure department, the Irish-bred colt was a beaten choice in his last start but faces a much softer group today and probably deserves his 2-1 morning line status. Admiral Halsey makes a trainer switch to Librado Barocio and has back numbers that make him a major player with this group. He’ll be doing his best work late. Belmont Bill has the route-to-sprint angle that we like and could stick better at this shorter distance. The switch to leading jockey Juan Hernandez is another plus, so we’ll include him on our ticket.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: C
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-The Fence; 4-It’s Saul Good
Backups/savers: 2-Kitzkaty.
Forecast: Here’s an inscrutable maiden juvenile sprint for state-bred fillies. Those that have already run apparently can’t, and there is nothing to indicate the first timers are better than ordinary. The only thing we do know is that one of these is going to win. The Fence brought $40,000 as a yearling, so we’ll assume that at least she’s a good-looking individual. The workouts at San Luis Rey Downs aren’t special but the pattern is healthy, so this daughter of I’ll Have Another more than likely is ready for a good effort. It’s Saul Good was bought for a ham sandwich at auction but the works indicate some ability, so in a soft affair she’s a contender by default. Kitzkaty has a work tab that doesn’t inspire but leading jockey Juan Hernandez takes the call and on that angle alone she’s worth tossing in.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:07 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Natural Power; 1-Exultation
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: The two main contenters is this starter allowance extended turf sprint are favorably drawn inside and both should be used in rolling exotic play. Natural Power won a similar affair in desperate fashion over this course last month and if he can turn in two alike – and it should be noted that he rarely does – the veteran Irish import will be the one to beat again. Always most effective when held up early and allowed to run late, the Vladimir Cerin-trained gelding retains the barn’s “go-to” jockey Kent Desormeaux and with good racing luck and some help up front should be heard from close home. Exultation has been away for more than a year but returns protected in a sign of confidence and has finished first or second in six of 12 starts over the Santa Anita turf course. A versatile sort who can be dangerous on the lead or from off the pace, the son of Paynter shows a solid series of recent works that should have him tight enough while landing leading rider Juan Hernandez. He shows the signals of being a live and well-meant runner.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:41 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Riverside; 6-Looks Rare
Backups/Savers: 5-Excel Calculator.
Forecast: Riverside earned a career top speed figure when finishing a strong third in a highly rated race over this track and distance last month and may finally be ready to graduate in this maiden optional claimer for older horses. The son of Bernardini is favorably drawn inside and should draft into a ground-saving, second flight trip and have every chance from the quarter pole home. Looks Rare, second in the same race our top pick exits, likely will vie for the lead from his outside draw, and if he can clear with undue pressure the Doug O’Neill-trained son of Hoppertunity may take some catching. He’s had four outings and in each case has speed figure has produced an upward move. Excel Calculator was fourth in that common race with our top two picks on May 19 with a less than ideal trip. He’s always been a one-paced grinder but with only slight improvement could be a factor with a comfortable second flight journey.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:15 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Flatterwithjewels
Backups/savers: 7-Lucy L.
Forecast: Flaqtterwithjewels was quite convincing when beating a similar $12,500 field over this track and distance last month and anything close that that effort today should produce a repeat score. The veteran Milton Pineda-trained mare has a good stalking style that likely will result in a trouble-free trip, so at 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower she’s a logical candidate to be a rolling exotic single. Lucy L can be tossed in somewhere as a backup or a saver. In the frame in her last three starts, and a winner for this $12,500 price in a restricted (nw-2) affair two races back, the daughter of Informed is shy of where she needs to be on speed figures but if our top pick regresses she probably has as good of a shot as any of the others.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:49 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Pushiness
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Pushiness was a late scratch last month when she spooked and slammed into a fence on her way from the saddling paddock to the walking ring, but assuming she remains focused during today’s preliminaries the highly regarded daughter of Kantharos should have no trouble outrunning this modest group of juvenile fillies. Listed at 4/5 on the morning line (and close to a bargain at that price if you can get it), the Michael McCarthy-trained 2-year-old lands the outside post and should load last, break first, and then take it from there. She’s a logical short-priced rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:20 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Irish Patsy; 6-Miss Lizzy
Backups/savers: 1-Aventapp
Forecast: This is a fairly competitive starter optional claiming turf sprint for older fillies and mares that offers a few legitimate contenders, topped by the progressive Street Boss filly Irish Patsy. A clever maiden claiming winner over the local lawn two races back, the Michael McCarthy-trained sophomore raised her game a few notches when a fast-finishing second (beaten a neck) at this condition in her most recent outing, and with another forward move today looks capable of producing a winning late kick. She’s the logical 2-1 morning line favorite, but there are others that deserve consideration as well. Miss Lizzy, fourth in the same race our top pick exits and running equally as well after slow start and traffic trouble on the turn, is another that seems set to step forward again, especially with two nice workouts since raced that includes a bullet training track drill (:47 1/5, fastest of 29) that especially catches the eye. Aventapp lands the good rail and should be prominent throughout. She’s just 1-for-14 and perhaps not one to trust, but she should at least land in the frame and therefore is worth using as a saver.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:51 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Port Royal
Backups/savers: 5-Take Charge Curly
Forecast: Port Royal drops to the bottom for the first time in this maiden $20,000 miler and with the return to the main track looks to have found his winning level for the Desormeaux brothers. He’s solid on speed figures and projects to secure an ideal pace stalking trip. Take Charge Curly, in the money in his last three starts, should fire a good shot again and will be dangerous if ‘Royal fails to produce his best effort. The Shackleford gelding is a one-paced grinder but seems likely to be forwardly placed and have every chance. Preference on top goes to Port Royal but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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