June 16, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Awesome Tiger
Backups/savers: 5-Golden Again.
Forecast: Awesome Tiger just won a restricted $32,000 claimer over this course and distance with an ideal stalking trip that produced a solid speed figure, one that makes her dangerous right back in this starter $50,000 affair for fillies and mares over a mile on turf. The daughter of Classic Empire seems most comfortable on the sod and seems more likely than not to duplicate her last performance in this tougher spot. At 7/2 on the morning line, she is reasonably priced. Golden Again has hit the board in each of her three most recent starts while competing at this level and won’t need much improvement to break through with a win. The daughter of Paynter has faced primarily her own age group, but she did finish a good third against older foes under these conditions two races back. She’s a tad shy in the speed figure department but has room to improve. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics but reserve the bulk of the play for Awesome Tiger.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-She’s My Niece
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: She’s My Niece probably can’t beat a real good maiden 2-year-old filly but there may not be one in this five furlong, so rather than spread the race we’ll take a stand and assume that the daughter of Hard Spun is ready to graduate after finishing second in a fast, highly rated affair last month. The Doug O’Neill-trained filly was almost five lengths clear of the rest, and with the likelihood of producing another forward move in her third career start she appears to be a logical top pick, though at 6/5 on the morning line there won’t be any real wagering value to be found.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:01 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Noble Reflections; 5-Whatmakessammyrun
Backups/savers: 3-Turn On the Jets.
Forecast: This abbreviated sprint over the flat turf course officially is an open allowance race, though it contains runners that are graded stakes quality. Noble Reflection was a respectable fourth in the Turf Sprint-G2 on Derby Day at Churchill Downs and faces an easier assignment after returning to his home base in California. A gate-to-wire winner in two of three starts over the local lawn, the speedy son of Lion’s Map clearly is the quickest in the field, and if he can shake loose early without undue pressure he’ll likely lead gate to wire. Whatmakessammyrun is a prototype late-running turf sprinter who had enjoyed major success down the Hillside Course. There’s no reason he can’t duplicate his top form over the flat layout, so with good racing luck he’s certain to be heard from the late. Turn On the Jets, away since December, has a history of firing fresh and projects to enjoy a comfortable pace-stalking position. He’s fast enough on pure speed figures to win for a barn that hits at a powerful 23% with layoff runners.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-American Theorem
Backups/Savers: 7-Kid Corleone.
Forecast: American Theorem probably is using this second level allowance sprint as a springboard to the Del Mar season (he won the Bing Crosby Stakes-G1 there last year) but that doesn’t mean he won’t outclass this field even if not totally cranked up. First or second in four of six starts over the Santa Anita main track, the son of American Pharoah has trained like he’s fit and ready for his first outing since winding up eighth of 11 in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint-G1 at Keeneland last November. He has won off a layoff in the past, so we’re expecting the George Papaprodromou-trained ridgling to settle off the leaders and then produce a successful late bid. Kid Corleone is another comebacker worth considering on your ticket, at least as a backup. The son of Shackleford has displayed winning form off the bench, has looked solid in the morning for trainer Doug O’Neill, and projects as the controlling speed. He’s not as fast on pure numbers as our top pick but is talented enough to consider in case ‘Pharoah comes up a tad short.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:04 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Unjokable
Backups/savers: 2-Sweet Mother Mary.
Forecast: Unjokable lost a toughie when tagged right on the wire in a similar restricted maiden sprint for fillies and mares, and based on that race combined with today’s slightly shorter trip the daughter of Practical Joke looks all set to graduate at 8/5 on the morning line. She has the kind of early speed to control this race from the start, and in field lacking in effective closers the Doug O’Neill-trained sophomore shouldn’t have any excuses today. Sweet Mother May, a willing but non-threatening sixth in the same race our top pick exits in her debut, has a right to produce a significant forward move for trainer Ron Ellis and should be included on your ticket somewhere. Mike Smith rides her back, a positive sign.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:34 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Harper’s Gallop; 6-True Patriot
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Harper’s Gallop returns to grass and should regain her best form. In the frame in six of nine starts over the local turf course that includes two wins, the Leonard Powell-trained mare switches to top jockey Juan Hernandez and should have enough tactical speed to get over from her outside draw and secure a comfortable stalking trip. It’s hard to say how much run she had at the time, but whatever chance True Patriot had in a similar turf miler for state-bred fillies and mares was lost when she ran into a severe roadblock at the head of the lane and lost all of her momentum. Perhaps with a clean trip, the Carla Gaines-trained filly would be right there in a fairly decent race won by Eleuthera. Today, with better luck, she may be able to produce a winning late kick, though her record of one win and four seconds from eight starts doesn’t really inspire confidence.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:04 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Big Pond; 7-Strange Addiction
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Big Pond has trained like a good filly for her debut and if she leaves cleanly the daughter of Mr. Big should display enough early speed to gain a favorable early position and then go on with it when it matters. She’s listed at 4-1 on the morning line but we’ll be surprised if she doesn’t go lower. Strange Addiction ran much better than the line will show (slow start, severe traffic midway, good late energy) when third in her first outing last month. That race was on grass, today’s sprint is on the main track, but the daughter of Good Magic shouldn’t have any issue with the surface switch. The Dave Hofmans-trained sophomore should give our top pick plenty of competition. We’ll be surprised if the winner isn’t one or the other and both should be used in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Annaghlasa; 1-Slam Diego; 2-Cornelia Fort
Backups/savers: 3-Katerini.
Forecast: This grass grab bag requires a spread in rolling exotic play; we suggest you include as many as your budget allows. Annaghlasa has been chasing much tougher of late – she actually was entered (and was well-beaten) in the Santa Ana Stakes-G3 two races back – but against this restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claiming turf miler for fillies and mares the Doug O’Neill-trained Irish-bred may have found her friends. Perhaps most effective as the controlling speed, she probably will be relegated to a stalker’s role in this spot but based on speed figure she should be good enough win, nonetheless. Slam Diego is guaranteed an ideal ground-saving trip from her rail post and though beaten at odds-on in a starter allowance race in her most recent appearance she has numbers that fit nicely in this league. Cornelia Fort stretches out for the first time and could be on the front end if her connections opt for that strategy. The daughter of Grazen has room to continue her improvement with just five previous starts, and while her speed figures are a bit light they are at least moving in the right direction. Katerini stretches out again and usually runs well over this grass course. She is re-equipped with blinkers and switches to noted speed rider Edwin Maldonado, so a front-running trip isn’t out of the question.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:04 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Pleasant; 2-Home Cooking
Backups/savers: 5-Clearly Unhinged.
Forecast: Trainer Bob Baffert is loaded in this allowance optional claimer restricted to 3-year-old fillies, with highly impressive debut maiden winner Pleasant and the return of Del Mar Debutante runner-up Home Cooking in the lineup that looks much more like a graded stakes then a first level allowance affair. Pleasant won with complete authority while earning a big figure in mid-March and tuned up for her first start since with :58 flat gate work six days ago that was the fastest of 31 for the distance. Home Cooking has been equally impressive in her recent trials and should come back at least as good if not better than she was last summer at Del Mar. Toss in big figure debut maiden winner Clearly Unhinged as a backup for trainer Michael McCarthy (subsequently a distant fourth in the Santa Anita Oaks-G1 but back sprinting where she belongs) and you should have the race pretty much covered.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:31 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Tom and Jazzy; 2-Trusty Rusty; 7-Numero Dix
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Tom and Jazzy has been encountering much tougher fields of late without much success – most recently he finished sixth (beaten four lengths) in the Snow Chief Stakes – but in this restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claimer the Phil D’Amato-trained gelding appears well-placed to regain his winning form. A previous score over this course and distance last fall charts well with these, and with the switch to top jockey Juan Hernandez the son of Tom’s Tribute looks fairly solid. Trusty Rusty returns to the claiming ranks, is nicely drawn inside, and has speed figures that make him a major player in this league. If he can transfer his main track form to grass, the Doug O’Neill-trained sophomore should be competitive at 6-1 on the morning line. Numero Dix exits a stronger race and didn’t get the best of runs, so we’re anticipating a significant forward move today from the English-bred gelding. He’s been unplaced in all four starts since being imported but has buried numbers that actually make him a solid fit with this group. You have to use him.
