“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Single: 6-Park City
Forecast: There are lots of question marks in the Friday opener, a five-furlong turf sprint for juveniles, none of whom have been on grass since being weaned. Except in just one case, the first timers have been less than impressive in the morning, though a few could show a lot more while tasting the sod. Let’s take a stand and single Park City despite the statistical fact that the barn (at last count) is winless in 16 starts with debut runners. A promising recent gate work (see below) points him out as a colt with some talent, though we’re not entirely sure how quick he is. With Galileo on the bottom, the D. Blacker-trained son of Street Sense should handle turf, so in a race that we’ll probably not get too involved in, we’ll take a stand with this $200,000 Keeneland yearling purchase at 7/2 on the morning line and simply hope to be right.
Notable Workouts:
Major Nyquist (May 22, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.4hg). Grade: C+
In company with Chicknfingerfriday (5f, 1:02.3hg, off poorly) and really didn’t show a whole lot, leading early but with slow fractions of :25.4, and :38.3 (not asked much) but never really picking it up when engaged on the turn, winding up second best and slower than given, :50.3 and 1:03.2 on our watches for D. O’Neill. Was hoping to see more, down the road type, it would appear.
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President Z (May 28, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.3hg). Grade: C+
Second best while being outrun in gate drill with Laurel River (5f, 1:00hg) for E. Hardy, not asked much but steadily dropping back with splits of :24.1, :35.4 and :48 flat on our watches, about three lengths behind when eased up after a half. Would prefer to see one first.
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Bear Mountain (June 4, 2022, 5f, 1:01.1hg). Grade: C+
In blinkers, not asked early but was ridden pretty good late in gate drill with Lt.’s Choice (same time) and Honey’s Hope (5f, 1:03.4hg), splits of:24 flat, :35.4, :48 flat and 1:01.2 on our watches, slightly best outside at the wire while pretty much all out. Nothing special on dirt but is bred for turf on both sides of his pedigree so perhaps grass is in his future.
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Park City (June 4, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2hg). Grade: B
Breezing outside Quarantella (same time) for D. Blacker, easy early under a hold in :25 flat before picking it up entering the turn (not asked) in :36.2 and :48 flat on our watches while slightly best, able to go much quicker if permitted. Looks like a nice sort and should be ready for a good effort first time out. Seems pretty fit.
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Zookeeper (May 30, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02hg). Grade: C+
Driven hard and ridden from the gate to display early speed in company with Man Child and Theuntouchableone (same time) and remained under pressure throughout while earning splits of :23.3, :35.3, :47.4 and 1:02 flat, tiring in the final stages while appearing slightly third best. Has a bit of early speed but could use a bit more stick.
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Sharp Aza Tack (May 29, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1hg). Grade: C+
Second best outside Vegas Magic (5f, 1:01.2hg, never really asked much) while going slower than given on our watches and winding up more than a length back when eased up at the furlong pole, splits of :24.3, :36.3, :49.1 and 1:02 flat, ridden some on the turn while showing a tendency to lug out (same as in previous gate drill) and then doing a bit better when straightened for home. Brought $100,00 at the OBS March Sale after working a furlong in :10 flat (ridden hard) but was below expectation here and is a questionable type at this stage due to his turn issues.
View Workout Video
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RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Starship Defiant; 4-Zahra
Forecast: Starship Defiant (TOC=4/5; ML=2-1) stretches out again, lands the rail, and seems certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics. A repeat of her race before last, a runner-up in a $20,000 restricted (nw-3) affair over this track and distance, should be good enough to handle this open $12,500 event for fillies and mares. Zahra (2-1; ML=95) is worth including somewhere on your ticket as well. First or second in four of five career starts over the Santa Anita main track, the S. Knapp-trained mare has beaten our top pick in the past and projects to enjoy an ideal second flight stalking trip and then have every chance from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:09 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 8-Green Eyed Lady; 6-Quarantella
Forecast: Here’s another five-furlong turf sprint for juveniles, this one for fillies. Green Eyed Lady has looked nice in a pair of local workouts and appears fit and ready for a major effort first time out. The M. McCarthy-trained daughter of Oscar Performance is bred strictly for grass and should be tough to outrun with a clean break from her outside draw. Quarantella, a daughter of More Than Ready and therefore bred to excel on the lawn, is another that has done some good work in the a.m. to indicate the kind of ability that can be dangerous at first asking. The barn isn’t known to crank them up first time out, but this filly should be quite competitive on raw ability alone. We’ll give Green Eyed Lady the slight edge on top but include both in rolling exotic play.
Notable Workouts:
Sell the Dream (May 29, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:03.3h). Grade: C+
Went off slowly without being asked (:25.4, :37.3, was asked to be it up through the lane but lost her punch in the late stages while appearing a bit erratic, up in 1:03.2 on our watches. Let’s see one first.
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Quarantella (June 4, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2hg). Grade: B
Stride-for-stride inside Park City (same time) without being asked while perhaps a tad second best but looking fine in easy breeze for D. Blacker, splits of :25 flat, :36.2 and :48 flat, not asked to the turn and then picking up the cadence without being asked. More Than Ready filly has some run and based on pedigree seems likely to debut on grass.
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Green Eyed Lady (June 5, Santa Anita, 3f, :36hg). Grade: B
Hooked in with American Anthem (4f, :47.2h) and finished down the lane with that one while breezing throughout, final quarter mile in a sharp :24 flat. Moves like a decent type and gets over the ground nicely though bred on both sides strictly for turf. Daughter of Oscar Performance has some quality, for sure.
View Workout Video
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RACE 4: Post: 2:43 PT Grade: X
Single: 2-So it Would Seem
Forecast: So It Would Seem had no visible excuse when fourth as the even money favorite in a maiden $50,000 turf sprint last month. She was claimed out of that race by R. Hanson, who drops her to the $40,000 level, returns her to dirt, and removes blinkers. In a woefully weak field for the level, the daughter of Honor Code can easily outrun her foes with anything close to her best race, so as a logical short-priced favorite 4/5 morning line favorite she can be used as a rolling exotic single in a race that should otherwise be left alone.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:17 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 7-Goldini 3-Bud Knight
Forecast: Bud Knight (TOC=4/5; ML=2-1) is among the worst kind of short-priced favorites you can encounter. Untrustworthy and without a winning punch, the son of Tizbud has won one race from 25 career starts while finishing second or third 13 times, usually at single-digit odds. Second in his last start when five lengths clear of the rest, the L. Powell-trained gelding will be heavily backed again by default in this modest restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming turf miler, and while it wouldn’t be surprising to see him clunk up and win, he’ll not offer any wagering value at or near his morning line of 2-1. There is a viable alternative in the field, and that’s Goldini (TOC=5/2; ML=5/2). In the frame in four of eight starts over the local lawn, he drops to his lowest level ever, is competitive on speed figures, and exits a much stronger, productive race. With a proper patient ride, he can be along in time.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:49 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Increase Stakes; 5-Tizzy Twister
Forecast: Increased Stakes (TOC=3-1; ML=3-1) didn’t get the best of runs when fourth as the favorite in a similar state-bred allowance optional claimer in mid-April but with a clean start from the rail the daughter of Square Eddie should be capable of making amends. A repeat of her race-before-last on turf should be good enough, and even though both of her career wins were accomplished on grass we suspect she can be just as effective on dirt. A sharp recent half mile workout (:46 2/5) should have her on edge. Tizzy Twister (TOC=5/2; ML=3-1, a winner of two of her last three outings but much slower on pure numbers than are top pick, likely has further room to improve and can be included on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:20 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 7-Aventapp; 2-M Is for Magic
Forecast: Aventapp (TOC=2-1; ML=4-1) looks capable of inheriting the role as the controlling speed in this extended grass sprint and if she can clear without pressure the daughter of Tapiture can roll all the way to the wire. In the frame in all four starts this year, the M. Glatt-trained filly retains T. Baze and can win with her best effort. Though she was beaten on the square at 4/5 on the morning line in a maiden $50,000 over the local lawn last time and remains winless in 14 career starts, M Is for Magic (TOC=8/5; ML=7/2) is major contender based strictly on speed figures and in fact is the preferred pick of the analytics. In a race that projects to have soft early fractions, the daughter of Magician should be within range throughout and have every chance when the pressure is turned on. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:51 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Lisette
Forecast: Lisette (TOC=8/5; ML=9/5) was out of her element in the Santa Margarita S.-G2 but is realistically spotted today in this five-runner allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares. A repeat of her race before last – a strong third place effort in a listed stakes for older fillies and mares at Sunland Park – should be good enough to return the daughter of Uncle Mo to winning form, so at 9/5 on the morning line we’ll make the P. Gallagher-trained filly a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:21 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): Team Concept ; 8-Rock the Bourbon
Forecast: The finale is a maiden claiming turf miler for fillies and mares. Team Concept, in the money in her last pair over the local lawn, has numbers that fit and a good stalking style that should guarantee a favorable trip. With the switch to leading jockey J. Hernandez, the daughter of Acclamation is the one to beat. Rock the Bourbon shows up in a claimer for the first time and should greatly appreciate the class drop. She has numbers that can win and figures to be heard from late. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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