“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Ready Soul
Backups/savers: 5-Vantastic
Forecast: Ready Soul returns to his claim level, where two races back the veteran gelding wired the field in a similar $50,000 middle distance grass affair in an effort that if repeated should be more than good enough to handle this assignment. That win was accomplished as the controlling speed; today, with other speed signed on, the Doug O’Neill-trained son of More Than Ready might need to settle in the second flight and attack from there. He’s won that way in the past, so if the race flow dictates that strategy leading rider Juan Hernandez has the option to employ it. Vantastic might be more comfortable around one turn but he has won over this course and distance in the past, and with the switch to Frankie he will be dangerous from off the pace if the fractions up front set things up for a closer.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:59 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Big Switch
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Big Switch is listed at 6/5 on the morning line and looks every bit of that on paper. The John Sadler-trained filly has been away since last May, but her workouts indicate she is fit and ready, and having won her debut we know she can fire fresh. When last seen, the daughter of Mr. Big captured the Melair Stakes for state-bred foes two-turning over the local main track, and while she’s facing open company in this first level allowance event she holds an obvious and distinct edge based on speed figures and is likely to outclass this field. We’ll use her as a short-priced rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Soaring Sky; 1-La V.
Backups/savers: 3-Unwritten Code
Forecast: This abbreviated turf sprint for $25,000 claiming older fillies and mares requires a spread in rolling exotic play, with the three inside runners looking to have an edge over the others. Soaring Sky is seeking her first win since arriving from Europe, and after chasing home much tougher stakes and allowance foes in her first three local starts she may have finally found her friends. The John Sadler-trained import will have plenty of pace to chase, so if she’s given the patient ride that worked best for her overseas the lightly raced 5-year-old mare should be capable of tagging the suspect leaders close home. Based on her Irish form, she’s more than good enough to win at this level. La V. has a prior win over the Santa Anita turf course and is another that might appreciate patient tactics. She was rushed off her feet in her last two starts and paid for it late; perhaps she should be allowed to do her best running late despite the temptation of gunning to the front from her rail draw. Unwritten Code seeks her third straight score while moving up another notch on the class ladder, and while she’s unproven on grass she has the kind of early zip that will make her dangerous if she can shake loose early. At 5-1 on the morning line, she’s worth including somewhere on your ticket.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Six Feet; 2-Tom’s X S
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: Six Feet outran his 6-1 odds when finishing a solid runner up in his debut vs. maiden $50,000 foes last May, but then disappeared. The Ryan Hanson-trained gelding returns protected in a sign of confidence in this state-bred straight maiden dash while showing a work tab that should have him fit enough, so with Ramon Vasquez riding him back combined with the addition of blinkers the son of Dads Cap looks extremely live in a below average race for the level. Tom’s X S, a closing second after a slow start over five furlongs on grass in his debut at this level last month, was likely best in that race and will be tough to beat if he can duplicate that performance on dirt. However, his pedigree is strictly grass, so we’re not sure that he will, though he still must be considered a major player and the one to beat. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play while leaving out the 5/2 morning line favorite, Magnificent Ride. The Clubhouse Ride gelding is drawn comfortably outside and has numbers that can win, but he’s already an 11-race maiden and has failed as the odds-on favorite in two of his last three starts.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Itzel; 5-California Bling; Rylan Jayne
Backups/savers: 7-Always California
Forecast: Itzel exits an infinitely tougher straight maiden sprint on dirt for juvenile fillies at Del Mar in her debut last month and realistically drops into the maiden $62,500 ranks today while facing a field she should be able to outrun from start to finish. The daughter of Mo Town remains above her original $42,000 purchase price, so this is where she belongs, and as a daughter of Hollywood Derby winner Mo Town she should move up on grass. The shortened trip to five and one half furlongs won’t hurt, either. California Bling was nowhere two-turning on grass up last time out but turns back in trip and ran quite well in her debut sprinting over the all-weather surface at Golden Gate Fields in which she closed with energy after a slow start to wind up third. A repeat of that race today makes her dangerous. Ryan Jayne fifth sprinting on turf vs. straight maidens at Del Mar in November, is another that should appreciate this easier assignment. Leading jockey Juan Hernandez rides her back, a positive sign. Also worth tossing in is the first timer Always California, based at San Luis Rey Downs where she put together a decent series of works for a clever outfit. She certainly won’t have to be a world beater to fit with these.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Head Start; 5-Twentyseventrouts;
Backups/savers: 4-Never Sway
Forecast: Anything goes in this restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Spread as deeply as your budget allows. Head Start plummets in class and at this level should have every chance to regain her winning form. She’s won over the Santa Anita main track in the past and has enough early zip to be on the lead or at least in a favorable stalking position outside. She’s been started and stopped on a few times in a seven race career so there’s a question of condition but if she fires her best shot she can win. Twentyseventrouts has numbers that fit in this league and will appreciate this considerably softer assignment. She has a prior win (her maiden) over the local main track back in March of 2021, and after being rested for two months shows a recent work tab that appears fairly promising. Never Sway lacks tactical speed but if there’s a pace meltdown she should be heard from late. Freshened since early November, the Craig Lewis-trained filly usually gets at least a piece of it and won over this track and distance when breaking her maiden last May.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:36 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-The Grey Wizard; 2-Ajaaweed
Backups/savers: 4-Agatino
Forecast: The Grey Wizard returns to the first-level allowance ranks after finishing a closing second in the marathon Hollywood Turf Cup-G2 at Del Mar in late November. This clearly should be an easier spot (and it is) though to be frank the race he exits was far below standard for a graded stakes. His only win was an all-weather score at this distance at Dundalk in Ireland last year, but he’s had just seven starts and therefore has room for further improvement, so with rising speed figures the Graham Motion-trained gelding rates top billing. Ajaaweed is now 6 years old and remarkably will be trying grass for the first time (how is that possible?). Can’t think of any reason why he wouldn’t like it. Winless in two years, the son of Curlin once had some quality, having finished second in the Remsen S.-G2 as a two-year-old, and recent workouts have been especially sharp. Agatino stretches out to 10 furlongs for the first time and should enjoy the trip. Another Irish invader with only seven outings and therefore with plenty of room for improvement, the Phil D’Amato-trained gelding removes blinkers (like this angle) and charts reasonably well off his closing third place at this level over a middle distance at Del Mar in late November. However, he was unplaced with some trouble (but not that much) in a dull outing earlier this month, so we’re not quite sure what to expect today.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:06 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-My Man Bags; 9-Sunrise Journey
Backups/savers: 8-Let’s Rejoyce
Forecast: My Man Bags missed in a photo at 3/5 at Los Alamitos last month while failing to duplicate his impressive bottom-rung (and highly rated) $8,000 claiming score at Del Mar in his previous race, but the Mark Glatt-trained gelding remains protected in a sign of confidence and should be given a chance to make amends. A three-time winner in nine career stars, the lightly raced 5-year-old clearly has had issues but gets a considerable break in the weights with the switch to good bug boy Aguilar so the son of Daredevil may bounce back with this best stuff. Sunrise Journey was off form in his last two starts, but a wet track at Los Alamitos last time out might have been a legitimate excuse. He drops a notch below his claim level, is comfortably drawn outside, and has won 13 races during his career, so we have to use him. Let’s Rejoyce is a perfect one-for-one over the Santa Anita main track and projects to be part of the pace throughout. The Los Alamitos-based runner has numbers that fit, so we’ll toss him in on a ticket or two as a saver.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:37 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Feathers; 8-Jibber Jabber; 5-Harpers Gallop
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Feathers was below form when missing at 6/5 in a similar mid-level claiming turf affair for fillies and mares last month at Del Mar but trainer Jeff Mullins, Jr. (filling in for his suspended father) has won three of four starts since taking over so we suspect this veteran mare will rebound with a top effort in her first start off the $32,000 claim. Always most effective when held up early and produced late, the Irish-bred mare retains Juan Hernandez and was sharp two races back when winning over this course and distance from far off the pace. Jibber Jabber can be a late threat when she’s feeling up to it and is another that should benefit from this easier assignment. With the some help up front, she is likely to make some serious noise under Frankie in the closing stages.
Harpers Gallop stretches out again and likely will be prominent throughout, perhaps inheriting a stalker’s role with a couple of other speed types drawn inside her. First or second in nine of 22 career starts, the seven year old mare switches to Flavian Prat, has won over this course in the past, and must be considered a contender with this significant drop in class.
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