February 17, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Love Our Family; 4-Point and Shoot
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Five of the nine probable starters in this mile maiden grass event for sophomore state-bred fillies exit the same race, so there’s not much to work with. Love Our Family, a close third (beaten a half-length) in that race after cutting out the fractions, is a threat to go gate-to-wire with a favorable projected race flow and the switch to leading rider Juan Hernandez. The Eddie Truman-trained daughter of Jersey Town has two good runner-up efforts over this course and distance this meeting and really won’t have to improve much to break on through with a win. Point and Shoot, second when rallying with interest in that same late January race, represents the most dangerous of the closing types and is the one to fear most. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Lasting Love
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Lasting Love brought $440,000 in the 2021 OBS April sale but in just her third career start the daughter of Cupid is being tossed away in a $16,000 non-winners of two seller for older fillies and mares. This certainly is an unhealthy pattern and backing her is problematic, but she did win her debut at Los Alamitos in December with a decent number, so if she has at least one good left the Simon Callaghan-trained filly seem should be able to regain her winning form. Listed at 9/5 on the morning line and with Frankie staying aboard, she might wind up too short to play in the win pool but seems like a logical rolling exotic single in a race that might otherwise be best left alone.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Gallovie
Backups/savers: 7-Kitten’s Kid
Forecast: Gallovie seeks her third straight win while shortening to an extended grass sprint, a trip and surface that produced an impressive victory last fall. However, she is not being raised from the $32,000 level of her most recent win a that was more than two months ago, so you have to wonder whether trainer Ron Ellis is dangling her as claim bait. If the English-bred veteran mare has at least one good one left she’ll likely score again, but at 8/5 on the morning line and possibly going lower there may be little wagering value to be found. Rolling exotic players may want to include Kitten’s Kid, successful at this price with a competitive speed figure over the local lawn in a softer restricted (nw-2) affair last fall and returning for a barn that has strong stats with layoff angle.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:37 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Tiz Tok
Backups/Savers: 10-Ice Storm
Forecast: Triple Crown nominated Tiz Tok surfaces in a claimer after a pair of modest runs in straight maiden company and may have found his proper level in this $40,000 seller over a mile on the main track for 3-year-olds. The Calumet Farm homebred has seen infinitely better competition, so against this group the son of Tiznow may very well find his confidence. Ice Storm must leave from the 10-hole, hardly an ideal draw at a distance that presents a relatively short run into the clubhouse turn. He has some form last fall that charts okay with this group, so you might want to toss him in on a ticket or two as a saver.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:09 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-In Vronsky Style; 2-Who’s Candy
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Freshened since early December, the Phil D’Amato-trained In Vronsky Style looks set for a major effort over a turf course he’s always liked, having never finished off the board in five prior outings. The lightly raced six-year-old gelding has been training quite well at Los Alamitos in the interim, retains regular rider Ramon Vazquez, and rates a very slight edge on top over Who’s Candy, a first-off-the-claim play for Steve Knapp (solid 19% with this angle) who has finished second in each of his last three starts and in fact is slightly faster on pure numbers than our top pick. Truthfully, they’re hard to separate. We’ll try to get by in rolling exotic play using just these two.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:41 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Saville Road; 4-Joker Boy
Backups/savers: 1-Butkus
Forecast: Here’s a difficult restricted (nw3) $16,000 claiming sprint for older horses with lots of question marks and requires as much coverage as your budget allows. Saville Row now runs for his trainer after the previous owners sold him (or gave him away) to Tim Yakteen after a miserable performance vs. much tough starter allowance foes three weeks ago. The once well-regarded son of Quality Road shows an easy breeze since raced, so we’ll assume he’s okay. Off his best race, he might get brave and outrun this bunch, so we’ll put him on top but clearly without a high degree of confidence. Let’s also consider Joker Boy, a first-off-the-claim for the low profile but capable Lorenzo Ruiz. A former stakes winner showing the blinkers-off angle with the switch to Ramon Vazquez, the son of Practical Joke is solid in the speed figure department but perhaps not trustworthy after failing as the favorite in his last two starts. At 9/2 on the morning line, he projects to draft into a comfortable second flight stalking position and then have every chance from there. Butkus was a voided claim last fall and was turned out, but he returns in a logical spot for new trainer Steve Knapp and has races last year that put him in the hunt. The work tab is brief, but the barn’s go-to rider Tiago Pereira takes the call, so a forward move is possible.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:13 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Storm the Night; 4-Zihuatanejo
Backups/savers: Russells Hustle
Forecast: The finale is a messy maiden $62,500 claimer for sophomores over a mile on grass. Anything goes. Storm of the Night shows up in a seller, removes blinkers, and stretches out for the first time in a race that he’s sure to become the controlling speed if his connections opt for that strategy. Bred to stay a middle distance on both sides of is pedigree, the son of Midnight Storm should thoroughly enjoy this easier assignment and if not pressured early could get very brave late. At 10-1 on the morning line he’s offering a reasonable gamble. Zihuatanejo adds blinkers and Lasix while dropping out of straight maiden company and is another that seems quite likely to produce a significant forward move under these conditions. Look for him to be doing his best work late. Russells Hustle, a first-time gelding, has numbers against stronger foes over this course and distance that chart well in this softer affair. A stable mate of our top selection, the son of Noble Mission switches to Frankie and really won’t have to improve much to be a major player.
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