December 27, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Santa Anita Park
______________________________________________________________________________
Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2-Avoir; 7-Long Mayshe Reign.
Backups : 6-Certitude.
Forecast: Many of these know each other well. Whose turn will it be today? Avoir has never finished off the board in four starts over the local lawn but is only 1-for-9 in her career, and that win was accomplished gate-to-wire. She’ll probably have to stalk and pounce to win this race but based on pure figures might be able to do it. Long Mayshe Reign finished a half-length in front of our top pick in a similar event at Del Mar and may be a tad quicker. Either one can win. No real gamble here.
______________________________________________________________________________
Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 1-She Be Boss.
Backups : none.
Forecast: She Be Boss is a filly tackling the boys, but it shouldn’t matter as she’s a stick-out on speed figures. From her favorable rail post the L. Mendez sophomore daughter of City of Lights projects to be on or near the lead throughout in a race with modest splits. No excuses, but no value, either.
______________________________________________________________________________
Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 3-Big Mama Sue.
Backups : none.
Forecast: Big Mama Sue is listed at 4/5 on the morning line, so she’ll be too short to play, but the S. Miyadi-trained mare looks solid in this $25,000 claiming turf miler that lacks depth. A two-time winner over the local lawn and making a major jockey switch to F. Prat, the daughter of Mr. Big lacks tactical speed but still projects to be along in time against this group. This is another race that probably should be left alone.
______________________________________________________________________________
Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: March of Time.
Backups: none.
Forecast: March of Time earned a powerful speed figure when a very promising second in his debut more than a year ago at Los Alamitos but then disappeared. The son of Justify returns for trainer B. Baffert and has looked sensational in the morning, better even than last year when he left at 4/5 before missing after a troubled trip. He should make no mistakes today. A recent breeze when stride-for-stride while slightly best with the stakes quality older sprinter Pilot Commander tells us all we need to know about his present condition and his natural ability. He’s 3/5 on the morning line and may even go even go lower.
______________________________________________________________________________
Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 7-Eternal Reign (Ire).
Backups : none
Forecast: Eternal Reign (Ire) makes her U.S. debut in this maiden special weight turf miler for fillies and mares, and based on her Irish form and her local workouts the P. D’Amato-trained import should be a very short price to graduate. She’ll likely settle in the second fight and then rally when called upon under F. Prat before going on to bigger and better things. None of the other entrants in the field have ever earned a Beyer figure that exceeds par for this level, which tells us that this really isn’t much of a group. ‘Reign, on the other hand, might be fairly decent.
______________________________________________________________________________
Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 2:32 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 3-Vanzzy ; 1-Big Spin.
Backups : 7-Impossible Task.
Forecast: Vanzzy just finished second in a $16,000 main track miler at Los Alamitos and today surfaces at the bottom, an $8,000 seller at that same distance. The class drop really isn’t suspicious; the veteran gelding ran for this price at Del Mar in September and trainer M. Glatt has a reputation of being aggressive with his claiming stock. The son of Verrazano won over this track and distance during the fall meeting and employs a second flight, stalking style that should keep him free of trouble. Big Spin is worth including as well. The Bay Area shipper is a solid fit on numbers, though his lack of tactical speed over what normally is a speed favoring track may put him behind the eight ball.
______________________________________________________________________________
Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 3:04 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 7-Hang the Moon
Backups : 1-Mahina.
Forecast: Hang the Moon was bit out of her element in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf but she certainly isn’t today, even in a race that figures to have creepy-crawler fractions led by the outclassed Omaha Girl, who’ll serve a purpose by giving each of the others a target to run at. ‘Moon, a late-running daughter of Uncle Mo, should be able to dawdle along in the second flight and then quicken when given her cue.
______________________________________________________________________________
Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 3:46 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1-Cooey; 7-McKechnie
Backups : 5-Surf Song.
Forecast: Cooey has done some very good work in the morning leading up to her debut, and if she can leave cleanly from the rail and avoid trouble the Florida-bred filly appears to have found a field she can beat. The B. Baffert barn is an amazing 31% with first timers, though the odds often reflect that statistic. In this case the daughter of Girvin is listed at 8/5 on the morning line and we probably wouldn’t take much lower than that. McKechnie flashed excellent early zip in her debut before waving the white flag last summer at Del Mar. She returns with a series of slowish workouts (under heavy restraint in most of them), so she’s a hard one to gauge, though we suspect she’ll be in front for at least a half mile. After that, who knows?
______________________________________________________________________________
Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 4:16 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 12-Lil Richards Bello; 7-Andtheomofthebrave; 5-Brazenly.
Backups : 6-Smokem Ez; 3-Don’t Fight the Fed.
Forecast: 12-Lil Richards Bello looks quite logical in this allowance optional claiming miler on turf but he’ll need some luck to draw in from the also eligible list. We won’t know until race day morning at scratch time. Otherwise, the race is wide open and requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Andtheomofthebrave wired a soft maiden state-bred field sprinting on grass at Del Mar and today will try to carry his speed around two turns while facing winners. Based on the good number he earned when graduating, the son of Om should fit with these, though we have no idea if he’ll appreciate the extra ground. Brazenly was nosed out in a similar spot at Del Mar and certainly won’t need much more to beat this group.
______________________________________________________________________________
