July 25, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Del Mar
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Del Mar 4th Race – Post: 3:30 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 2-Visceral
Other Contenders: 4-Canada Gate.
Forecast: We usually prefer two sprint preps prior to a stretch out, but we’ll break the rule and go with Visceral, who’s had just one. The son of Violence ran better than the line will show when a troubled fourth in his debut behind Flightline’s highly regarded full brother Eagles Flight in a blazingly fast race and productive sprint at Santa Anita in late May. In that race, the M. Glatt-trained sophomore displayed good speed to always be within range, lacked room when attempting to rally into the lane, lost his momentum, then kept to his task and stayed on nicely to be fourth. Blinkers are removed (love that angle, too), the work tab in sharp and healthy, and the projected pace flow appears ideal for his style. With much in his favor, this M. Glatt-trained colt looks solid at 2-1 on the morning line.
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Del Mar 7th race – Post: 5:05 ET. Degree of confidence: A-
Top Selection: 4-Salesman.
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: Salesman has never been the most consistent or dependable performer in his career both in Europe and in North America but when he’s good, he’s very good. Prior to his win on Breeders’ Cup day at Santa Anita last November, the veteran gelding put together a series of eye-opening workouts and then performed to that standard when winning the Thoroughbred Aftercare marathon by more than eight lengths (and it was 20 lengths back to the third runner) while crossing the wire in the easiest way possible. He didn’t look the same in the morning prior to his next start in the Big’ Cap-G1 in March and ran poorly, but the R. Mandella-trained seven-year-old is clearly back on the beam for this year’s renewal of the Cougar II Stakes. His recent drills have been spectacular, so a career top performance could be on the horizon.
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Del Mar 8th Race – Post 5:35 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 3-Nation.
Other Contenders: 10-Oscar Joy.
Forecast: 3-Nation had just one outing last year as a 3-year-old when he displayed plenty of promise in a self-caused, much-troubled runner-up effort at Keeneland. He returns with an impressive series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs that should have him cranked and ready. Hopefully, now at age four, the son of Constitution will have figured things out, because in his debut he made many mistakes along the way yet wound up being beaten only two lengths while finishing with courage. Drawn comfortable inside, the M. McCarthy-trained runner should be able draft into a second flight, stalking position before hopefully producing a winning late kick. The one to fear most is Oscar Joy, an excellent second in a maiden turf sprint at Santa Anita last month while in need of the experience and stretching out today to a distance that should be much more suitable to his pedigree and style.
