“What You Need to Know” – Del Mar
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Dark Vintage; 4-Rastaman Vibe; 5-Eisenhower
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Murphy Boy.
Forecast: Here’s a tough maiden turf sprint to kick off the Wednesday program. Dark Vintage probably isn’t any world beater, but he does have the benefit of a prior outing and looks like the logical top pick for trainer Wesley Ward. The Irish-bred colt flashed speed in his debut in New York before weakening late to finish third and should be tighter and fitter today for a barn that hits at a powerful 24% with second time starters. Rastaman Vibe and Eisenhower have done some decent work leading up to their debuts and should be competitive at the very least. Both are by sires who excel with turf runners, so they may even be better than the dirt track drills indicate.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Austonian
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Winning Idea.
Forecast: Austonian shows up in a maiden ($50,000) claimer for the first time and also is a first time gelding, so there are at least two strong reasons to believe that the son of Smiling Tiger is ready to step forward and graduate. Back sprinting and with a solid recent series of drills, the Brian Koriner-trained sophomore doesn’t really have a whole to beat according to his decided edge in the speed figure department. He’s 9/5 on the morning line and that looks like a proper price in a soft abbreviated sprint.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Brother Reid; 9-Table for Two; 4-Thirsty Pappy; 7-Overrule.
Backups/savers/Underneath: 2-Cali Bay; 5-Battle Call.
Forecast: This grass grab bag requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Spread as deeply as your budget allows. Brother Reid lacks tactical speed and needs as much help up front and he can get, but the Vladimir Cerin-trained gelding likes this turf course and just missed by a head at 28-1 in a similar affair at Santa Anita in mid-June. There should be sufficient pace signed on to compliment his style, so we’ll take a mild shot at or near his morning line of 5-1. Table for Two is a fit on numbers and is a versatile type that can be dangerous on any surface. His best puts him right there. Thirsty Pappy drops into a restricted (nw-2 $32,000 seller for the first time and should greatly appreciate the easier competition. He’s a one paced grinder with a projected mid-race trip and could easily outrun his 15-1 morning line price. Toss him in. Overrule is another exiting a tough affair and should be highly competitive based on his maiden claiming $50,000 score at Santa Anita two runs back. He’s probably most effective as the controlling speed, but there’s no guarantee he’ll be handed the early lead without having to work for it.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Big Novel
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none
Forecast: Though a tad disappointing when failing to seal the deal as the 4/5 favorite, Big Novel finished a solid runner-up in a downhill turf sprint in late June in her first outing off a layoff, should build on that performance today, and can be just as effective on dirt and over a distance of ground. The John Sadler-trained filly has consistent recent speed figures and is multiple stakes placed over the Del Mar main track, so as the morning line 8/5 favorite, the daughter of Mr. Big should have no excuses in this state bred, first level allowance main track miler. In a race that should have moderate early fractions, she projects to be on or near the lead throughout.
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RACE 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Itzel
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Itzel is the quickest in the field and should be able to clear the pack early and roll all the way to the wire in this abbreviated turf dash for first level allowance fillies and mares. The lightly raced daughter of Mo Town earned a career top speed figure when second as the favorite in a similar affair over six furlongs at Santa Anita in mid-June and should greatly appreciate today’s shorter (by a furlong) trip. At 5/2 on the morning line, she’s a solid play in the straight pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference) : 3-Sheza Girly Girl
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Del Mar course specialist Sheza Girly Girl returns to her claim and level and looks capable of regaining her winning form in this state-bred allowance optional $20,000 claiming main track sprint. The veteran mare shows three wins from five career starts over the Del Mar main track and although her recent form is below her best she did earn a strong speed figure when third in a similar affair at Los Alamitos in her most recent outing. Her morning line of 4-1 seems about right, so let’s take a stand and make her a win play and rolling exotic single in what appears to be a fairly wide open heat.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Jack Sixpack; 5-Tiz Plus
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Jack Sixpack has been sprinting of late, but he can be just as effective around two turns, especially in races in which he projects as the controlling speed. A perfect one-for-one over the Del Mar grass course, the son of Bluegrass Cat catches a field that he can control from gate to wire according our pace projections and given that type of trip the Phil D’Amato-trained gelding will offer excellent wagering value at 4-1 on the morning line. Tiz Plus shows the blinkers off angle that we like and has numbers that make him competitive. However, he’s winless since 2019, making him a tad hard to trust.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Princess Tenko; 1-Electric Glide
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Lt’s Choice.
Forecast: Let’s try to get by using a couple of middle priced horse in the finale. Princess Tenko is a Gulfstream Park invader seeking valuable ship-and-win purse money and to make things easier the daughter of Good Magic plummets to the bottom-rung maiden $20,000 claiming ranks. She’s hit the board just once in four career starts but has earned speed figures that are more than good enough to handle this modest assignment. She’s listed at 4-1 on the morning line and is a strong play at or near that price. Electric Glide is slower on numbers than our top pick but represents inside speed and seems certain to establish the running and have every chance from there. This is a group she should be able to act with at 6-1 on the morning line.
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