August 13, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Del Mar
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Penny’s Hope; 6-Sand to Sea
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Hey Demps.
Forecast: Penny’s Hope has trained like a precocious sort for Dan Blacker and appears to own sufficient talent to win at first asking in this state-bred maiden dash for older fillies and mares. Certainly bred to win early, the Harris Farm homebred is a daughter of Smiling Tiger and should come out firing in a race in which the known element doesn’t inspire. She’s listed at 6-1 on the morning line and at that price we’ll make her a gamble. Sand to Sea and been burning up the track in the a.m. for a trainer that normally lets them roll, so she may not be quite as quick as her final times might indicate. However, when a maiden works that fast, you have to take notice.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-President Z
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: President Z looks well-spotted in this $25,000 claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-olds. Drawn comfortably outside, the Dan Blacker-trained gelding moves up a notch after being claimed out of a strong abbreviated sprint last time out in which he was beaten a nose while more than five lengths clear of the rest. It was his first start in 10 months, so if he improves just a little, or even just runs back to that race, the son of Kantharos should be hard to beat. At 5/2 on the morning line, we’ll make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Elegant
Backups/savers/Underneath: 9-Rascality.
Forecast: Elegant breezed stride-for-stride with stable mate Prince of Monaco (an eight length debut maiden winner at Los Alamitos and entered in today’s Best Pal Stakes) and more than held her own – see workout – in a gate drill that was timed in :59 2/5 last week. The daughter of Omaha Beach appeared extremely fit (galloped out strongly) and blessed with much speed and talent (was never asked) and seems certain to get bet off the board, most likely lower than her morning line of 8/5. We’ll make her a rolling exotic single, but she’ll probably be too short of a price to use in the win pool.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Muth
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Prince of Monaco.
Forecast: Muth squashed his overmatched competition in his debut at Santa Anita as expected, winning off by himself at 30 cents on the dollar without ever being asked for his best. The $2 million son of Curlin should pretty much do the same against this group in the Best Pal S.-G2, though his stablemate (and projected second choice) Prince of Monaco is a highly promising colt in his own right, having galloped to victory by eight lengths last month at Los Alamitos. It will be highly surprising if they don’t finish one-two.
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RACE 5: Post: 4:09 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Dr. No No
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Dr. No No was extremely well meant in his debut but broke a bit slowly, was forced wide, and then simply gave himself too much to do when winding up a close third while beaten a length behind the winner, who returned to finish second in a Cal-bred stakes on Friday). With a clean break today, the son of Smiling Tiger should being able to make the lead, or at worst draft into a pace pressing/stalking position and then go on with given his cue. At 9/5 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:40 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Exultation; 7-Hurricane Cloud; 6-Eastern Ocean
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: This grass grab bag requires considerable coverage in rolling exotic play. We’ll try to get by using just three. Exultation was a sharp comeback winner at Santa Anita in June when facing starter’s allowance foes and moves into the straight $50,000 claiming ranks with numbers that make him a major player despite the class hike. He might be more comfortable as a sprinter but has won (via disqualification) over this course and distance in the past. Top rider Juan Hernandez stays aboard and should have this Peter Eurton-trained gelding within range throughout. Hurricane Cloud hasn’t been out since a visually pleasing win at Santa Anita in the spring of last year. He’s waiver protected and has been training smartly at San Luis Rey Downs for his return, so if ready the English-bred gelding looks like as serious player at 4-1 on the morning line. Eastern Ocean, a winner over the local lawn at this one mile trip just 10 days ago, earned a speed figure that makes him a contender right back if the short rest doesn’t have a negative effect.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:12 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Devil Be Me; 7-In Vronsky Style
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Devil Be Me seeks his third straight win after back-to-back scores in a maiden state-bred event followed by a starter allowance sprint tally at Santa Anita. This first level allowance company figures to be his toughest test yet in his first try around two turns but the Phil D’Amato-trained son of Grazen has rising speed figures and enough speed to be on or near the lead from the bell. Stablemate In Vronsky Style was scratched on Friday in preference to this spot, and while he’s been primarily a sprinter throughout his career this one mile trip should be within his range. The pace projection is a bit volatile since both speed types hail from the same stable and we doubt the trainer will want to see them go head-and-head. If it comes to it, which one will concede the lead to the other?
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RACE 8: Post: 5:44 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Del Mar Jerry; 5-X J Rascal; 12-Reiquist
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Almost Snow.
Forecast: Let’s take a bit of a flyer at 6-1 on the morning line with Del Mar Jerry in this first level allowance optional claiming miler. The Mastery colt tries turf for the first time after a brutal trip from the dreaded rail in a hot sprint here last month and before that was pitched too high when chasing home subsequent Haskell S.-G1 winner Geaux Rocket Ride. The Michael McCarthy-trained colt breezed quite well over the local lawn 10 days ago, switches to top rider Juan Hernandez, and should have a chance to verify the favorable impression he made in his winning debut in May. X J Rascal turned in a strong runner-up effort in his U.S. debut last month when finishing a very good second in a hot race for the level. He’s right there again with a repeat of that effort today. Reiquist stretches out for the first time (and switches to grass) and certainly is much better than his last race shows. The Tim Yakteen-trained colt will have to overcome the far outside draw (no easy task) but he’s a colt of some talent and should be given a price chance to run back to his runaway maiden sprint win two races back.
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RACE 9: Post: 6:14 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-I’m a Risque Girl
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: I’m a Risque Girl shows up in a seller for the first time and appears properly spotted in this six furlong sprint for maiden California-bred fillies and mares. Overmatched but not embarrassed in the Pleasanton Oaks last time out, the Andy Mathis-trained sophomore ran well in a pair of straight maiden dashes before that while in one case earning a speed figure that is far superior to par for this level. While she’s not particularly quick early, she should be within range throughout in this softer affair and we’re expecting her to exert her superiority through the lane. At 4-1 on the morning line, we’ll use her as a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:44 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): National Road
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: The finale is a starter’s allowance turf miler offering several possibilities. Rather than spread the race, we’ll sink or swim with National Road, especially with the presence of Flavian Prat in the saddle. Away for 11 months, the Mark Glatt-trained gelding has run well fresh in the past and shows a solid series of recent workouts that should have him fit enough. Still eligible to this non-winners of two ($50,000) condition, he’s run very well at this level in the past over this course and distance, and also shows an edge on speed figures, so let’s go with the fresh face at 7/2 on the morning line.
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