Jeff Siegel’s Breeders’ Cup “What You Need to Know”
Saturday, November 2, 2024
Del Mar
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RACE 4: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 4-Valva
Back-ups: 9-Ways and Means
Toss Ins: none
Forecast: The pace should be relatively quick in this year’s edition of the BC Filly & Mare Sprint, so let’s go the trip handicapping route and expect Valva to draft into a comfortable second flight early position and then have every chance to go after the leaders when called up at the head of the lane. Yesterday, the track wasn’t particularly kind to speed (except in the BC Juvenile in which the early splits were pedestrian), so this seven furlong specialist appears to have much in her favor. She shows z healthy work tab for her first start since late August and is fast enough on pure numbers to win with her best effort. Ways and Means is the likely favorite and one to beat. She projects to be a pace stalker outside of Society but we wonder how hard she’ll have to work to get by when the pressure is turned on. Her last two wins were accomplished over a wet track, and she’s beaten beat twice at odds-on in the past, so may not be totally trustworthy. We’ll include her, but at her price she’s only worth using as a saver.
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RACE 5: Post: 12:41 PT Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 9-Cogburn
Backups: none
Toss Ins: 6-Star of Mystery (GB); 2-Motorious (GB).
Forecast: Yesterday’s BC Juvenile Turf Sprint over this course and distance played for the deep closers, so if you like a runner or two in here from off the pace, don’t be afraid to play him. You’ll certainly get your price with most of the money likely going to Cogburn, and for good reason. A nice grass sprinter until this year, the son of Not This Time has become virtually unbeatable, having won all three of his 2024 outings by daylight and with total domination. If he somehow misses the break, well, he can come from off the pace if required, so even at a short price (he’s 7-5 on the morning line the S. Asmussen-trained 5-year-0ld may not be worth trying to beat. Exacta/trifecta players should consider using the best of the late runners – Star of Mystery (GB) and Motorious-GB) – but in a no value type of race you probably should tread lightly.
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RACE 6: Post: 1:21 PT Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 2-Thorpedo Anna
Backups: 9-Awesome Result
Toss ins: none
Forecast: Thorpedo Anna certainly looks odds-on in this year’s renewal of the BC Distaff and almost certainly will be on the tote. She was well below form when winning the Cotillion S.-G1 all out at 10 cents on the dollar, though it wasn’t surprising she regressed off her taxing runner-up effort in the Travers S.-G1 facing the boys in her previous outing. Freshened and training quite well, the daughter of Fast Anna can be expected to return to her best form, and anything close to it should be more than good enough. The unbeaten (seven-for-seven) Japanese invader Awesome Result hasn’t been beating the best of competition, but she’s done it in style. Who knows how good this daughter of Justify really in. We’ll have a ticket or two with her for protection but that’s about it.
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RACE 7: Post: 2:01 PT Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 5-Jayarbe
Backups:11-Rebeld’s Romance
Toss ins: 2-Emily Upjohn
Forecast: Jayarbe is a rapidly developing 3-year-old colt from France with the likelihood of continuing his improving pattern in this year’s renewal of the BC Turf. He shows two superb victories in his last three starts, with a strong runner-up effort behind top class Economics sandwiched in between, and he brings with him Timeform Ratings that continue to rise and are good enough to beat this field. In a race that projects to have a soft early pace, the son of Zoffany should inherit a cozy stalking early position, just galloping along, and then take control when given his cue entering the lane. Sure, he’ll have to Rebel’s Romance, who won this race two years ago and is every bit as good now and then, but with four wins from just seven start we suspect we haven’t seen anywhere near the best yet from this B. Meehan-trained sophomore. We have him at 4-1 on the morning line and would be happy with odds in that vicinity at post time.
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RACE 8: Post: 2:41 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 3-City of Troy; 14-Next
Backups: none.
Toss ins: none.
Forecast: We’ll admit it’s a bit risky using just two in this year’s BC Classic – one who has never run on the dirt and the other who has never won or placed in a Grade-1 – but we’re willing to be right or wrong and just leave it at that. Nobody knows for sure if City of Troy will act over conventional dirt – he has trained well overseas on synthetic but that really doesn’t count – but as a son of Justify he certainly has a right to handle the main track and there’s no question that he’s the most accomplished runner in the field. Trainer Aidan O’Brien has called him “the best colt he’s ever trained,” and if you strictly by the form he’d be right, but none of that matters if the colt gets mad after taking kickback that he’s never been subjected to. Next has won his last seven races by more than 91 lengths, and he’s been taking a knee at the furlong pole in most of them, and his numbers have been through the roof. We suspect this devoted marathoner will cope with the turn back to 10 furlongs, and we love his far outside draw (no kickback there), but if there’s anything we’re concerned about is the much faster early pace than what he’s been used to seeing. If he can settle in the second flight under a hold to the far turn before being put to pressure, the Not This Time gelding could make a serious run for it.
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RACE 9: Post: 3:25 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4-War Like Goddess; 7-Content (Ire); 3-Cinderella’s Dream (GB)
Backups: 8-Hang the Moon; 2-Full Count Felicia.
Toss ins: 10-Moira.
Forecast: Here’s a grass grab bag that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll go three-deep on our main ticket, but nothing would surprise us, so use as many as your budget allows. War Like Goddess is seven now and may have lost a step but she certainly will appreciate the firm ground that she’s been missing in her last two starts. By all rights, the daughter of English Channel should have won the ’21 edition of the BC Filly & Mare Turf over this course and distance but was moved way to soon and got nailed late after hitting the front in mid-stretch. Let’s hope she gets the patient ride she needs today. Content (Ire) hated the mush in her last two outings overseas that seriously darkens her form. Runner-up in the Irish Oaks-G1 last spring and successful in the Yorkshire Oaks-G1 over top of the ground at York in August, she’s a thoroughly proven stayer with for A. O’Brien and R. Moore, so if she shows up with her “A” game the daughter of Galileo will be heard from. Cinderella’s Dream (GB) will be facing older for the first time and is unproven around three times, but she may have the best turn of foot in the field, so we’re expecting to see her switch off early and blast home late. She’s had her issues and missed her intended prep at Woodbine
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RACE 10: Post: 4:05 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 10-Mullikin; 3-Federal Judge
Backups: 9-Remake (Jpn); 1-Raging Torrent
Toss-ins: 2-Gun Pilot
Forecast: Federal Judge is as quick as anything in this year’s renewal of the BC Dirt Sprint but if he’s hooked early by the likes of Straight No Chaser and Skelly, he could be softened up enough to enable a stalker or a closer to tag him late. The son of Army Rule is fast enough on figures (and they’re rising with each start) to wire the field if the main track doesn’t play against this running style, which it arguably did yesterday. With just six career starts on his resume, the B. Cox-trained gelding certainly has room for further development. Millikin is almost a carbon copy of Federal Judge. Lightly raced with rising speed figures and improving with every outing, the son of Violence may be a bit more versatile than his chief rival, as he’s not a need the lead type and in fact may benefit from a stalk and pounce strategy. Given the projected race flow, the R. Brisset-trained colt maybe a tad better price, so we’ll give a slight edge on top but use both equally in our rolling exotics. Remake (Jpn), Raging Torrent, and Gun Pilot each have credentials should a pace meltdown occur.
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RACE 11: Post: 4:45 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: 6-Notable Speech (GB); 7-Porta Fortuna (Ire)
Backups/savers: 9-Johannes
Toss in: 8-More Than Looks
Forecast: Notable Speech (GB) is another firm ground specialist seeking to regain his winning form over the pool top table Del Mar grass course, and if he brings the same type of acceleration that he did when winning the English 2000 Guineas and the Sussex S.-G1 earlier this year the British-bred son of Dubawi should outclass this field. The C. Appleby-trained sophomore and world class jockey W. Buick make a marvelous team and from a comfortable 6-hole draw this Godolphin homebred should have no excuses. Porta Fortuna (Ire) has strung together three consecutive Group-1 victories, though this clearly will be her toughest test yet. Her instant acceleration should play extremely well over this tight course and its short run in. Johannes has to be respected, though he, too, is unproven at this level. The California-bred son of Nyquist always seems to enjoy a perfect due to his handy tactical speed, and his turn of foot from the quarter pole home is notable and impressive. More Than Looks will be rolling late, though he tends to give himself too much to do. Ee’ll toss him in at a price
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