“What You Need to Know” – Del Mar
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Free and Humble
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Free and Humble stayed on willingly after a wide trip when third in a similar affair last month and seems sure to improve with the re-addition of blinkers and an ideal inside draw. She’s run well over this course in the past, retains top rider Juan Hernandez, and shows an easy breeze in the interim to tick her over. She’s the logical top pick and 9/5 morning line favorite.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Mastering; 2-Redline
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Mastering exits a starter’s allowance race and should find this straight $40,000 claiming field well within his capabilities. The main concern is his failure to win at Los Alamitos at 2/5 in his most recent start, but he was four lengths clear of the rest and earned a strong speed figure, so perhaps the defeat wasn’t as alarming as it appears. It is the time of the year when horses are being culled to make room for the freshmen class and new purchases, so some class drops can be forgiven and maybe this is one of them. Redline is another class dropper to consider. The Steve Knapp-trained colt was a two-turn winner at Los Alamitos in June but was simply in too tough when unplaced in a strong second level allowance event here last month. He can bounce back today against this group.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Den of Iniquity 3-Night Blue; 1-Irish Rose
Backups/savers/Underneath: none
Forecast: Den of Iniquity is fresh off the plane from Ireland and appears fit, ready, and properly spotted to graduate for trainer Phil D’Amato, who always does very well with these European imports. She’s nicely drawn inside, lands Juan Hernandez, is a first time Lasix user, and has Timeform Ratings that are sufficient to win a maiden race on this circuit. At 4-1 on the morning line, she’ll offer good wagering value. Her D’Amato-trained stablemate, fellow Irish-bred Night Blue, has a similar pattern and is the one to fear most. Fourth in a 20-runner race at Leopardstown last time out, she’s another that will race with Lasix for the first time and should be quite competitive on this circuit. Irish Rose has yet to crack par for the level on the Beyer scale, but her numbers are gradually improving and from her inside draw the Neil Drysdale-trained filly projects to be the controlling speed. She was second with that type of trip last time out, but today’s slightly shorter distance could make help considerably.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:45 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Sir London; 2-Ever a Rebel
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: We’ll double the fourth race, a contentious entry-level allowance optional claiming main track miler for older horses. Sir London returned off a long layoff to finish a solid second in a quick sprint at Santa Anita last month and should use that race as a springboard for this stretch out to a more favorable distance. The son of Malibu Moon was once well regarded and has a history of improving with racing, so we’re expecting a significant forward move today. Ever a Rebel finished nowhere in the Oceanside Stakes on opening day on turf, so he’s back in the allowance ranks today and back on dirt. He’s a strong fit on speed figures with his best effort and has excellent tactical speed that should produce an ideal pace pressing, ground-saving trip. A recent bullet half mile workout (:46 4/5, fastest of 50) is another positive factor.
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RACE 5: Post: 4:15 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Smile Baby Smile
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Smile Baby Smile looks ready to graduate in this modest maiden special weight sprint for California-bred two-year-old fillies. She’s had a couple of runs and seems to be improving, most recently finishing a willing runner-up while well clear of the rest after a bit of a slow start. The daughter of Smiling Tiger obviously is no world beater but won’t have to be against this group, so at 5/2 on the morning line let’s make the Andy Mathis-trained filly a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:45 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Benedetta; 2-Dreamfyre; 3-Dua
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Impressive Los Alamitos debut winner Benedetta has the luxury of the outside draw, which will allow her to pop and go or stalk and pounce in this year’s edition of the Sorrento Stakes-G3 for juvenile fillies. She won with something in the tank in her debut but today will need to step it up when facing at least two other fast and highly regarded fillies. The daughter of City of Light is filly of strength and scope and it’ll be interesting to see how much progress she’s made between her first and second starts. Dreamfyre debuted against colts in a stakes at Pleasanton and left them in the dust with an impressive display of raw speed. She may be the quickest in the field and it would not be surprising to see her remain a strong factor throughout. Doa made hard work of it when winning her debut last month, but we’ll give her credit for fighting off all changes to win in a blanket finish. Today we’ll see what she’s really made of.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:15 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Runninwiththeboyz; 5-Carmen Miranda.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Runninwiththeboyz couldn’t stay nine furlongs in her first try around two turns, faltering under pressure despite an easy trip on the front end. She’s back sprinting today where she belongs, and the Jeff Mullins-trained filly seems likely to return to her best form. A perfect one-for-one over this sharp five furlong distance, the daughter of Liam’s Map projects to settle in the second flight and then blast home. Carmen Miranda won a clever first-level allowance turf sprint at Santa Anita in late April with a career top speed figure but hasn’t been out since. She returns with a steady and healthy series of drills for trainer Phil D’Amato and has won over this turf course in the past, albeit at a mile. Not sure if this distance will prove to be too sharp for her, but we fully expect the daughter of Stanford to be running on strongly late.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:45 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Pastor T
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Sir Maximus
Forecast: Pastor T breezed from the gate with Muth last Sunday and went stride-for-stride with that $2 million colt every step of the way. We caught the team out a full six furlongs in 1:13 flat, with neither one asked for their best. Considering that the workmate will be odds-on in tomorrow’s Best Pal St.-G2 after breaking his maiden in a cakewalk at Santa Anita, this was a highly impressive drill for the first timer by Into Mischief from multiple stakes winner Top Quality. He’s listed at 8/5 on the morning line but we’ll guess that he’ll leave at odds-on.
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RACE 9: Post: 6:15 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Turnerloose; 3-Spirit And Glory; 1-Closing Remarks
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Turnerloose makes her first start of the season and first for new trainer Phil D’Amato, and with an impressive work tab that tells us she’s primed and ready let’s take a gamble on this daughter of Nyquist in this year’s renewal of the Yellow Ribbon Handicap-G2 for older fillies and mares. A stakes winner on grass as a 2-year-old and a graded stakes winner at three on dirt, she was always a versatile and genuine race filly when conditioned by Brad Cox and we expect she’ll remain the same for her California conditioner. Listed at 8-1 on the morning line, she offers an excellent price chance in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. Main contenders include Spirit And Glory, a Monmouth Park shipper with a turf stakes win two runs back and speed figures that fit with these, and Closing Remarks, successful in the Royal Heroine S.-G2 at Santa Anita three races back, ideally drawn on the rail, and with proven winning form over the Del Mar grass course.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:45 PT Grade: C
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Missed Call; 6-Warrior Road; 4-Bag’s Gold
Backups/savers: 11-Cathedral Light.
Forecast: The finale is a difficult abbreviated sprint for restricted (nw-2) $16,000 older claimers that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Missed Call may be as good as any. Claimed in two of his last three starts and now in the Kristin Mulhall barn, the Dialed In gelding has recent numbers that make him dangerous and will be re-equipped with blinkers after finishing a respectable fourth in a similar affair here last month. He shortens up a furlong and should be a late threat. Warrior Road just won a maiden $20,000 affair underneath this bug boy with an okay number and is realistically spotted based on numbers. Bag’s Gold won a maiden $50,000 dash last fall but then was turned out. He returns cheap and will be competitive if he’s the same type of horse this time around.
