Jeff Siegel’s Breeders’ Cup “What You Need to Know”
Del Mar
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 6: Post: 2:45 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 8-Ecoro Sieg
Back-ups: 2-Aesterius (Ire); 3-Big Mojo (Ire); 7-Whistlejacket (Ire)
Toss Ins: 4-Magnum Force (Ire); 12-Ides of March (Ire)
Forecast: It’s difficult to assess the quality of his competition but in viewing his two victories in Japan <blooks to us like a rocket ship. We suspect he’s the quickest of the quick in this five furlong dash, and over the tight Del Mar turf course with very a short stretch we’re expecting him to wire the field. The European contingent has some quality – the three listed in our Back-up line have legitimate looks – though we doubt any of them can outrun our top pick during the early stages. Aesterius and Big Mojo are relentless types, and if they can stay within range they’ll have every chance, while Whistlejacket shortens to five furlongs, finds quick ground, and assuming he breaks could be closest to the leader in the opening quarter. Price chancers include Magnum Force, who may be the most dangerous of the closers (though that style of runner over this course and distance is problematic), while Ides of March was a visually pleasing winner of her last pair at The Curragh and with continued progression could be capable of competing at this level.
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 7: Post: 3:25 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 10-Scottish Lassie; 3-Immersive
Backups: 9-American Bikini (Jpn)
Toss Ins: none
Forecast: Scottish Lassie demolished her rivals in the one-turn mile Frizette S.-G1 in just her second start while earning a speed figure that far exceeds the others sin the field. If she doesn’t go backwards, she should win again, though the outside draw does her no favors and the two turn trip will be something new to her. Immersive is unbeaten in three starts, including the Alcibiades S.-G1 at this distance last month in what can be best described as a workmanlike performance. She’s nothing special on numbers but so far she’s perfect and could be the type that just does what’s required. The “X” factor in the race is American Bikini, a quick daughter of American Pharoah who might be capable of inheriting the roll as the controlling speed based on her visuals in two victories in Japan. We’ll use her on a backup ticket but if you can afford it consider raising her to the top line.
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 8: Post: 4:05 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 7-Thought Process; 1-Lake Victoria (Ire)
Backups: none.
Toss ins: none.
Forecast: Lake Victoria is an unbeaten (in four starts) daughter of Frankel and certainly one of the best juvenile filly overseas. Thought Process is one of most gifted West Coast-based juvenile filly grass performers seen in recent years. The winner should be one or the other, and since ‘Process is the better price of the two we’ll put her on top while including both on our main ticket. They rate far above the others in the field, so we’ll sink or swim with just these two in our rolling exotics while hoping that Thought Price’s prior experience around two turns over Del Mar’s sharp oval provides the edge she needs.
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 9: Post: 4:45 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5-Jonathan’s Way; 1-East Avenue; 4-Ferocious
Backups:8-Shin Believe
Toss ins: none.
Forecast: Jonathan’s Way won his debut going away from off the pace at Saratoga and then captured the one-turn mile Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs gate to wire. We love that kind of versatility in a young horse and he’s fast on figures, too, so while this is a fairly strong edition of the BC Juvenile we’ll gamble on the son of Vekoma while hoping to get at least his morning line of 9/2 and maybe even more than that. East Avenue is the certain favorite and one to beat based on his two gate to wire runaway victories, most recently in the Breeders’ Futurity-G1 at Keeneland. He’s good – maybe even better than very good – though he’ll have to deal with more early heat today than he’s seen so far. Ferocious has plenty of talent but was left for dead when a distant second behind East Avenue in Kentucky. However, prior to that race the son of Flatter threw a fit in the gate and had to be reloaded in an episode that no doubt cost him whatever chance he had. Let’s hope he doesn’t blow a gasket in the barrier today. Shin Believe never took a deep breath in his facile maiden score in Japan, so who knows how good he is, but at a price we’ll toss him in. The son of Constitution was one of the most impressive previewers in the OBS April Sale and absolutely looks the part of a top class prospect.
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 5: Post: 5:25 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 11-New Century (GB)
Backups: 5-Zulu Kingdom; 4-Al Kudra (Ire); Aomori City (Fr)
Toss ins: 13-Henri Mattise (Ire); 10-Mentee
Forecast: New Century (GB) was tons the best when he won the Summer S.-G1 at Woodbine in his most recent start. The English bred colt produced a relentless late kick despite being fanned extremely wide to win going away with powerful speed figure in a continuance of his improving form that began when he captured a listed British stakes last summer. We’re expecting the A. Baldwin-trained colt to settle well off the pace and then quicken when called upon and given a clean trip with some help up front he should be able to tag the leaders close home. Small ticket players may considering using him as a single, but there are a number of other possibilities (see above) to consider for those that can afford the protection.
______________________________________________________________________________
