“What You Need to Know” – Del Mar
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-She Is Romantic; Mysticism.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Cailin Dana.
Forecast: She Is Romantic is a highly promising juvenile filly making her debut in this five furlong turf dash that she has a decent chance to win with a clean break from her rail post position. The daughter of Blame was impressive breezing a quarter mile in :21 1/5 at the OBS April Sale before bringing $550,000 through the ring, and her local drills for trainer Peter Eurton have been excellent as well. The barn doesn’t win often with debut runners but we’re hoping that at 6-1 on the morning line she proves to be the exception to the rule. Mysticism has trained fairly well for trainer Richard Mandella and, as a daughter of War Front, could prove to be a much better type on grass than dirt. She certainly has been given an aggressive series of workouts morning to be more than fit.
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RACE 2: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Brookys Gal
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Brookys Gal has very little to beat in this maiden claiming state-bred sprint for juvenile fillies. She finished a distant second when facing straight maidens at Pleasanton in her debut last month in what was a fairly quick race for the level and appears well spotted in a maiden $50,000 affair while landing the cozy outside draw. In a race in which no viable alternative appears, let’s stick with the known element.
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RACE 3: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Sunrise Journey; 7-Table for Ten
Backups/savers/Underneath: 8-Shot of a Lifetime.
Forecast: Sunrise Journey has the blinkers off angle that we like and remains protected in this starter’s allowance ($16,000) turf route for older horses. A winner in a similar affair sprinting on dirt at Los Alamitos in his most recent start, the old timer has 16 wins from 47 career starts, an admirable record to be sure for the quick son of Good Journey, who will be waiting around for nobody after the gate break. Effective on any surface but especially on grass, he’ll certainly be the controlling speed on the stretch out, and if he’s ever going to be successful at this one mile trip it’ll likely be in his first try. Table for Ten is the most dangerous of the closers and could be tough if the other speed types get worn out out chasing ‘Journey. He has a prior win over the local lawn and is fresh from a dirt track score at Pleasanton that earned a solid number.
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RACE 4: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Yellow Brick; 1-Worcester
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: The winner logically will be one of two listed above, but both have failed at short prices in their careers – they are a combined zero-for-four at even money or less – so neither can be trustworthy. Yellow Brick removes blinkers for the first time, so maybe that will help. These conditions – a mile over the main track – suit him best, so perhaps it’s time for him to leave the maiden ranks. Worcester is in the same boat. He has figures that can win at this level but so far hasn’t been able to seal the deal despite having several reasonable chances.
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RACE 5: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Cornelia Fort; 9-Daddysruby
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 10-Sensible Ruby.
Forecast: Cornelia Fort is protected in this first level allowance turf miler for state-bred fillies and mares in a sign of confidence after being claimed for $32,000 out of a game win on turf at this trip in mid-June at Santa Anita. The lightly raced daughter of Grazen has excellent tactical speed, improving speed figures, and room for further improvement for a low profile but high percentage outfit, so let’s put her on top and hope to get close to her morning line of 6-1. Daddysruby is unbeaten in two starts with numbers that fit and a pedigree that suggests she will enjoy this distance and surface. Both of her victories – an all-weather maiden sprint at Golden Gate Fields and $50,000 optional claimer at Santa Anita in March – were visually pleasing and accomplished from off the pace, so we’re expecting new pilot Juan Hernandez to employ patient tactics.
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RACE 6: Post: 6:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Bus Buzz; 1-Kangaroo Court
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Bus Buzz renews his rivalry Kangaroo Court in this year’s edition of the Real Good Deal Sakes for California-bred 3-yeare-olds. ‘Buzz is down 0-2 in their head-to-head battles but fought bravely in both races and today could turn the tables based if nothing else on the luck of the draw. ‘Court is stuck on the rail where the lanes have been slowest but shows a healthier work pattern, while ‘Buzz, a recent six length allowance winner with a powerful speed figure, is more comfortably drawn in the four hole. You have to find room on your ticket for both in a virtual match race that might otherwise be best left alone.
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RACE 7: Post: 7:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Turn On the Jets; 2-Beer Can Man
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Noble Reflections.
Forecast: : This is a three-other-than turf sprint for older horses, but it might as well be a graded stakes. Turn On The Jets is perfect in two starts over this course and distance and may have been best when a troubled fourth, beaten a length, in his 2023 debut at Santa Anita in June. The Irish-bred gelding shows a steady and healthy work tab in the interim, switches to top grass rider Hector Berrios, and looks primed a ready for a career top effort. Beer Can Man is another Del Mar turf course specialist – he’s three-for-three – and is fresh from a career top victory in the Turf Sprint at Pimlico on Preakness day in May. On pure numbers, he’s right there with our top pick.
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RACE 8: Post: 7:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Tahoe Secrets; 7-The Bullion Bomber
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Quick Buck.
Forecast: Tahoe Secrets finished third as the 6/5 favorite in a starter allowance sprint at Los Alamitos in his 2023 debut and today drops into restricted (nw-2) $32,000 company while seeking his winning level. There’s an expectation that he’ll be a bit fitter and sharper after his comeback in late June, and if so he’ll have every chance to make amends. The Bullion Bomber, second in the same race ‘Secrets exits and runner-up in his last three, figures in the fray again, though he’s been proven to be suspect under pressure and may not be entirely trustworthy.
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