“What You Need to Know” – Del Mar
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Hudson River; 4-Lottery Pick
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Hudson River has never been big on winning (2-for-19) but he finished in the frame in his last two when facing claiming company and, after a two month vacation, returns protected in this starter’s allowance middle distance turf event. The Bob Baffert-trained gelding should inherit an ideal ground-saving, pace-stalking trip and then have every chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home. Lottery Pick was a race shape aided runner-up when rallying with the help of a torrid pace to finishing second in a first level allowance affair over the local lawn last month. Today’s pace flow may not be so kind, but the son of American Freedom usually gives his best and should make his presence felt again in the final furlong.
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RACE 2: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 9-Tiff With Jimmy; 4-Paid in Gold
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Tiff With Jimmy is nicely drawn outside and can dictate her trip in this maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for older fillies and mares. This will be her first start in a seller (a warranted class drop based on her figures) for trainer Mark Glatt, who makes the switch to top rider Juan Hernandez and also puts back on the blinkers that she wore in her debut. Paid in Gold is faster on pure numbers than our top pick and is strictly the one to beat, her low profile connections notwithstanding. She’s a first-off-the-claim play for trainer Sergio Morfin (moderate stats with this angle), and if the daughter of Ransom the Moon runs back to either one of her last two races she’ll probably win. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Idessia
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Idessia has been knocking on the door and is overdue for a maiden win in this middle distance turf affair for fillies and mares. She’s been trouble-prone through most of her five race career but if she can leave cleanly and secure a second flight, ground-saving trip, the Phil D’Amato-trained daughter of Smiling Tiger should be able to produce the last run. Let’s make her a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Economical; 8-Touchdown Brown
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Economical looked good when easily disposing of a restricted (nw-2) $16,000 field last month and today moves up to the (nw-3) $20,000 level in a race that should be well within his capabilities. The Phil D’Amato-trained gelding has displayed steady improvement in his last three outings since joining this barn and another forward move is likely. Touchdown Brown is drawn comfortably outside and is the one to fear most. The Brian Koriner-trained son of Cairo Prince has back numbers that would bury this field, but those were earned a long time ago. This is his second start off a layoff, and the huge class drop makes his current condition difficult to assess.
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RACE 5: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Harper’s Gallop; 3-Naughty Nadine
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 9-Shared Future.
Forecast: Harper’s Gallop was a clever winner at Santa Anita in June in a state-bred first level allowance event and returns to the $40,000 claiming ranks (a logical move) following a two month vacation. From her favorable 2-hole post, the veteran mare can secure her preferred pace-stalking trip and then have dead aim and every chance after straightening for home. Naughty Nadine tried conventional dirt for the first time at Pleasanton and hated it; she’s back on turf today and can be a strong factor throughout. She’s a fit on figures and is reunited with “win rider” A. Espinoza. We’ll try to get by in rolling exotic play using just these two.
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RACE 6: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Rookie Mistake; 5-Jamming Eddy
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 9-Boldness.
Forecast: Rookie Mistake drops from $32,000 to $16,000 while seeking his proper level and may have found it based on recent speed figures earned when facing considerably tougher foes. However, he’s just 3-for-29 overall and winless since 2020, but he’s won over this track in the past and could easily perk up against this group. Jamming Eddy, a fading seventh in the same race our top pick exits, is another that very likely will display improvement in this league. The veteran Square Eddie gelding has a good stalking style and will be double tough with a repeat of his winning race at Los Alamitos in early July.
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RACE 7: Post: 6:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Neige Blanche; 4-Queen Ofthe Temple
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Not only is Neige Blanche partial to the Del Mar turf course (two wins in four starts), she’s a prototype mini marathon specialist, having won three of four career outings over this unique 11 furlong distance. Successful in the Possibly Perfect Stakes at Santa Anita in June, she’s had a couple of months off but won this very same listed stakes two years using the same prep race. With a sharp series of healthy workouts in the interim, the Leonard Powell-trained import looks primed to fire another winning shot. Queen Ofthe Temple was beaten a neck by our top pick in the Possibly Perfect and is the one she’ll have to worry about the most again. The Dan Blacker-trained mare has just two wins on her resume (compared with 10 seconds and thirds) whereas ‘Blanche has been victorious in 10 of 22 career outings, so if these two hook up again in the final furlong we have a pretty good idea which one will find a way to prevail.
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RACE 8: Post: 7:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Midnight Fury; 5-U R Pressed; 10-Habeas.
Backups/Savers/Underneath:
Forecast: Midnight Fury takes a nosedive from straight maiden to the maiden $20,000 level while obviously being culled from the stable, but if he can pass the vet during the morning exam he’ll be hard to beat based on anything close to his best race. U R Pressed has hit the board in his last three starts with gradually rising speed figures and will have a good chance to graduate if ‘Fury doesn’t make it the gate. Habeas is another sinking to the lowest maiden claiming level on this circuit and has credentials to make a run for it. He shows the route-to-sprint angle, has numbers that fit, and gets a bit of weight break with the switch to a seven pound bug boy.
