“What You Need to Know” – Del Mar
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Eligio; 5-Ready to Storm
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Eligio tipped his hand when missing by a nose in a $50,000 maiden claimer for juveniles at Los Alamitos (was five lengths clear of the rest) and today is raised to the $100,000 level for protection, though the class hike is artificial because this field is no tougher than the race he just finished second in. Three easy drills over the Del Mar main track since raced should have the son of Congrats ready to graduate, but at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower there won’t be much wagering value available. Among the newcomers, Ready to Storm looks the best and should be competitive at this level. The Doug O’Neill-trained son of City of Light began his early training at Monmouth Park but looked decent in a pair of local gate drills and should be fit enough despite the brief work tab.
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RACE 2: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Mac’s Time; 4-Chicknfingerfriday.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Mac’s Time was claimed for $30,000 at Churchill Downs in May and today returns on the class drop to $20,000 for new trainer Robertino Diodoro, not normally a healthy pattern but one that this trainer employs quite often, especially when there is ship and win money involved. With a clear edge in the speed figure department, the son of Not This Time should beat this field, though there’s always a question of condition with winning class droppers that are coming off a 10 week layoff. Chicknfingerfriday has a legitimate look if our top pick isn’t right. The Steve Knapp-trained colt remains above his claim level after finishing a respectable third in an allowance optional claimer at Los Alamitos last month. He’s light in the speed figure department but is realistically spotted in this restricted (nw-3) affair.
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RACE 3: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Double Jab
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Northern California invader Double Jab has two very good races on his resume, the second of which earned a strong Beyer speed figure of 78, which was 21 points better than his debut. In the frame in the both starts, the Andy Mathis-trained gelding moves from all-weather to grass and, as a son of Vronsky shouldn’t at all be inconvenienced by the switch in surface. From the rail in this state-bred maiden five furlong dash, he should be within range throughout and have every chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home. At 3-1 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Super Chief
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 12-In Vronsky Style; 8-Mystic Flyer.
Forecast: Super Chief won his debut in good style with a strong figure a year ago May but then disappeared. He returned in a first level allowance sprint last April but had the misfortune of catching the razor sharp and vastly improved Moose Mitchell and proved no match, winding up second but beaten nine lengths while finishing just in front of a next out winner. There are no Moose in this race, so we’re expecting the lightly raced 5-year-old to regain his winning form in this California-bred main track sprint. A strong recent gate drill in :59 3/5 should have him right on edge, and at 6-1 on the morning line (doubt you’ll get it) he offers excellent wagering value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 5: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 11-Miranda
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Runamileinmyshoes; 10-Prancingthruparis
Forecast: The first timer Mirinda is miles the best of this state-bred maiden juvenile fillies field but she’s stuck on the also-eligible list and needs to draw in. If she is forced to remain in the barn, put her in your hip pocket for next time. The daughter of Mtole has done everything asked in the morning and appears blessed with intense speed. While we’ve seen the Gary Mandella-trained filly on video, we have not been able to evaluate Runamileinmyshoes other than what appears on paper. The work tab should have her plenty fit and if she leave cleanly from the rail the daughter of Street Boss seems certain to be a major factor throughout. Additionally, the trainer jockey team of Jeff Mullins and Juan Gonzalez is lethal. Prancingthruparis is another that has escaped the cameraman and first timers from the Peter Eurton barn often need a race, but she’s bred for grass and shows a solid work tab, so in an unclassified field comprised mostly of newcomers we’ll toss her in.
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RACE 6: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Refocus; 8-Wild Jewels
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Mici’s Express.
Forecast: Refocus was a blazing gate-to-wire debut winner at Santa Anita in May but then might have been wheeled back too quickly when failing to show similar zip in the Fasig Tipton Futurity less than a month later, eventually winding up a distant third. He’s had a couple of months off to charge his batteries and has looked sharp and eager in recent drills to indicate he’s ready to bounce back. The Doug O’Neill-trained son of Pavel must break sharply from the rail to avoid trouble but if he does he could easily be the quickest in the field. Wild Jewels is a Pleasanton invader with two strong outings behind him, most recently a runner-up effort in a listed stakes sprint that earned a solid figure. He’s comfortably drawn outside and may be most effective if employing stalk and pounce tactics.
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RACE 7: Post: 6:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Inner Beauty; 8-Corporal Violette; 6-Golden Temper
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Here’s a grass grab bag for restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claiming fillies and mares. We’ll go three deep, but the best suggestion is to include as many as your budget allows in rolling exotic play. Inner Beauty is guaranteed a ground saving trip from her preferred rail draw and has speed figures that are better than par for this level. She’s probably most effective in the role as the controlling speed, which is possible given the projected race shape, is exiting a pair of sprints, has been freshened for almost three months, and shows a healthy series of recent workouts. Corporal Violette and Golden Temper are both dropping into a seller for the first time while trying to find their proper level. Both have shown enough against tougher to expect improvement against this group.
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RACE 8: Post: 7:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-L L L Cool; 4-Len’s Luck
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Montana; 10-American Empire.
Forecast: Bottom rung maiden claimers meet over a mile in the finale. L L L Cool was beaten a head in a similar event at Los Alamitos last month when finishing five lengths clear of the rest while earning a career top speed figure. A repeat of that race should be good enough against this bunch. Len’s Luck has hit the board in four of six starts and should at least get a piece of it again today.
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