November 4, 2022
“What You Need to Know” – Breeders’ Cup Keeneland/Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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BREEDERS’ CUP FRIDAY – KEENELAND
RACE 6: BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF SPRINT-G1. Post: 3:00 ET Grade: A-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 12-The Platinum Queen
Backups/savers: 5-Mischief Magic; 2-Love Reigns
Forecast: The Platinum Queen defeated many of the best older sprinters in the Prix de l’Abbaye-G1 on Arc day, and although she was afforded an enormous weight break due to the age discrepancy the achievement must be considered extraordinary. She also finished an excellent second to BC Turf Sprint contender Highfield Princess in the Nunthorpe S.-G1 at York in August in a remarkable performance. Against her own age group today, the Irish-bred filly would appear to have an enormous edge, her extreme outside draw, notwithstanding. For protection, we’ll toss in Mischief Magic and Love Reigns as backups. The former, a respectable fourth in the Middle Park S.-G1 last month, goes for the powerful Godolphin/Appleby/Buick team and his Timeform ratings, while not at the level of The Platinum Queen, are legitimately strong for a colt that can turn it on late. ‘Reigns is two-for-two in the States with a prior win over the Keeneland grass and was a commendable fourth at Royal Ascot in her only defeat.
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RACE 7: BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES. Post: 3:40 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Atomically; 10-Chocolate Gelato
Backups/savers: 7-Chop Chop
Forecast: Atomically was privately purchased by a sharp outfit following her highly impressive victory in the My Dear Girl Stakes at Gulfstream Park last month, and while she was only beating state-bred competition the daughter of Girvin did so despite being forced wide most of the way yet earning a speed figure that makes her a major contender in this championship race for juvenile fillies. Now in the Todd Pletcher barn, she has every right to produce another forward move in a race that should present fast enough fractions to compliment her late running style. She is 12-1 on the morning line but we suspect she’ll go lower. Chocolate Gelato was professional if not brilliant in her Frizette S.-G1 victory over a wet track that she may not have cared for. Her previous win against maidens at Saratoga on fast ground was arguably more impressive, and if she repeats that race today, the daughter of Practical Joke will be hard to beat. As a backup, we’ll include Chop Chop, somewhat unlucky when going down by a nose in the Alcibiades S.-G1 over this track and distance last time out. She is a progressive sort that will be doing her best work from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 8: BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF. Post: 4:20 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 12-Midnight Mile; 10-Mediate
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: The North American contingent appears somewhat ordinary, so let’s sink or swim with a pair of European invaders while making the main gamble the unbeaten British invader Midnight Mile, a thoroughly deserving winner of the Oh So Sharp S.-G3 at Newmarket last month. Both of her victories were accomplished at long odds, but her successes were quite legitimate and were accomplished from off the pace thanks to a relentless late kick that leads us to believe that she will be even better over a distance of ground. Listed at 10-1 on the morning line, the Richard Fahey-rained daughter of No Nay Never should find sufficient pace to compliment her style, so in a wide open affair she offers good value both in the win pool and in the various exotics. As for the 4-1 morning line favorite Mediate, she was beaten as the favorite in her last two outings overseas, the Moyglare Stud S.-G1 at The Curragh and the Cheveley Park S.-G1 at Newmarket, but to her credit ran a winning race in both. She was simply outfooted by two extremely talented fillies, Tahiyra, and Lezoo, and it must be said that either of those two would have been heavily favored in this race had they been afforded the opportunity. This Aidan O’Brien-trained filly was worn down close home in both races, so we’re not quite convinced she will enjoy today’s extra distance and the two turn trip, but on pure form she’s plenty good enough as a multiple Group-2 winner that includes success in the Albany S. at Royal Ascot. Furthermore, her Timeform ratings are quite strong, so while she may have distance limitations, we’ll regard her as a “must use” in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 9: BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE. Post: 5:00 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Cave Rock
Backups/Savers: 6-Blazing Sevens
Forecast: Cave Rock is listed as the 4/5 favorite in this year’s edition of the BC Juvenile, and on paper the undefeated son of Arrogate looks every bit of it. Fast on numbers, proven around two turns, and drawn comfortably inside, the Bob Baffert-trained colt projects as the controlling speed and once is established in that role (probably before the clubhouse turn) he should dominate gate to wire. For exacta purposes and/or perhaps as a backup, Champagne S.-G1 winner Blazing Sevens deserves consideration. The Chad Brown-trained son of Good Magic likes to lag and then blast home and should have every chance to pick up the pieces – and may even pull off an upset – if Cave Creek, though unlikely, goes too fast during the early stages.
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RACE 10: BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF. Post: 5:40 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Victoria Road; 4-Silver Knott
Backups/savers: 2-Packs a Wahlop
Forecast: Simply put, the European contingent looks better the North American entrants (as usual) in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, with Victoria Road and Silver Knott bringing with them visually pleasing performances and Timeform Ratings that are good enough to win. ‘Road is progressing with each outing and is better than his morning line of 8-1 would indicate. After taking four races to break his maiden, the son of Saxon Warrior was sharp winning a listed stakes at Deauville with a stalking trip and then rallied from far back to be up in time in the Prix de Conde-G3 over nine furlongs at Chantilly. He shortens back to a mile today, but from his cozy rail draw the Aidan O’Brien-trained colt should inherit an ideal ground-saving trip and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. Silver Knott was quite brave in victory in the Autumn S.-G3 at Newmarket last month and if that weren’t enough the Godolphin colt hails from the extraordinary Charles Appleby barn and will be ridden by William Buick, top class connections, to be sure. The best of the North American team would appear to be Packs a Wahlop, who will be seeking his fourth straight score after breaking his maiden sprinting and then stretching out to take back-to-back graded events over a mile, the most recent at Santa Anita in the Zuma Beach S.-G3 at Santa Anita last month. He has trained quite well in the interim, so let’s anticipate that this son of Creative Cause will make some serious noise in the final furlong and maybe even tag the speed close home.
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FRIDAY – SANTA ANITA
RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Bye Bye Buggsy; 1-Cheekiest
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Bye Bye Buggsy drops into a seller in her third career start, adds blinkers, and shows the two-sprints-and-a-stretch out angle that should make her the controlling speed in this mile turf affair for juveniles. If she handles the grass, she should be hard to catch. Cheekiest never got untracked when outrun in a much tougher maiden special weight turf sprint over the local lawn last month but from the rail she seems certain to be much more competitive against this group. Her pedigree suggests this one mile trip should be much more to her liking. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): King Zag 1-Start Them Up
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: King Zag has enough early speed to use his rail draw to good advantage in this maiden claiming main track sprint for juveniles, and if he can clear the field during the opening stages he might get brave and never look back. Start Them Up will be dangerous from off the pace with a repeat of his good runner-up effort at Los Alamitos last time out. We’ll try to get by using just these two in a race that really doesn’t offer much to work with.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:31 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Magic Game; 1-Good Boo Jo
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Magic Game has the route-to-sprint angle we like over a turf course that often favors the late-runners in sprints, so with patient handling the daughter of Flintshire may be able to produce a winning late kick in the below average state-bred grass dash for older fillies and mares. Good Boo Joo has a race two back that charts well with these, and if she moves up while adding blinkers (again) the Jeff Mullins-trained filly should be in the thick of it late.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:12 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Fort Bragg; 5-Reincarnate
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: The winner almost certainly will be one of the two Bob Baffert entrants. Fort Bragg crossed the wire first but was quickly disqualified for causing blatant interference on at least two occasions during the running of the race, so the stewards probably should have thrown the book at him. With blinkers being added today, we’re expecting the son of Tapit to behave himself and perform up to his potential in this middle distance main track maiden affair for juveniles. His stable mate, Reincarnate, has credentials as well, having finished second in both of his outings, though last time out at odds of 4/5 he really didn’t have an excuse while failing to capitalize on a perfect staling trip while settling for second. This will be his first try on dirt, so perhaps on this surface he will step forward. We’ll prefer Fort Bragg on top but include both in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:52 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Barristan the Bold; 10-Grit and Curiosity; 8-King of Speed
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: We’ll spread this grass grab bag for older horses while giving slight top billing on top to Barristan The Bold. Overmatched in graded stakes company in his last pair, the English-bred gelding plummets to the $25,000 claiming level and may have issues, but if he has one good one left he should be able to tag the speed. He’s a three time winner over the Santa Anita grass, and while the barn has had a slow meet this veteran may be able to buck the trend. Grit and Curiosity, second at this level over this course and distance last month, won’t need much more to beat this group. He’s winless in five starts over the local lawn but he has hit the board four times and should be heard from in the final furlong. King of Speed does most of his running at Los Alamitos, but he does have grass form that charts reasonably well with these. The class drop combined with the removal of blinkers could make a winning difference, so at 8-1 on the morning line he’s worth tossing in.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:22 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Cold City; 4-Cross Examine
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Cold City improved to finish second at this level over this track and distance last time out, and a repeat performance against this soft bottom rung maiden claiming field should be good enough to earn him a diploma. The big concern is that he was claimed for $50,000 two runs back and now competes for $20,000 so he’s clearly not well-liked by the barn. Cross Examine has no early speed but has shown he can finish a little bit and probably is the one to fear most from off the pace. At 6-1 on the morning line, he is worth including somewhere on our ticket.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:52 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Touch of Zen; 2-Orth; 7-Donner Lake
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Touch of Zen is largely unexposed with just three career starts and shows a pattern that appears to be improving, so the Phil D’Amato-trained gelding should be ready to graduate from the maiden ranks. Drawn nicely inside, the son of Grazen overcame some self-caused trouble to finish a solid third in a similar state-bred affair over this course and distance last time out and with clear sailing today can be along in time. Orth is an 11-race maiden and not one to trust, but this will be his first try around two turns, so perhaps this is what he’s always wanted to do. Based strictly on pedigree, the son of Jeranimo has a right to improve at the trip, and after a recent sharp runner-up try sprinting over the local lawn we’ll make him a legitimate contender. Donner Lake had a trouble-filled trip when second in the same race as our top pick and projects to be prominent throughout and have every chance.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:22 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Cause She’s a Lady; 3-Grandiosely
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Cause She’s a Lady takes a significant drop in class in an attempt to locate her proper level and in this $16,000 restricted (nw-2) claimer the Doug O’Neill-trained daughter of Creative Cause may have found her friends. She has won over this main track in the past and projects to enjoy a nice stalking trip outside the other speed type and then be able to go on with it when ready. Grandiosely is lightly raced (just three starts) and got a confidence-building win at Los Alamitos last time out when beating bottom-rung maiden claimers with career top speed figure. If she can duplicate that performance on the big track, the John Sadler-trained daughter of City Zip should be competitive right back.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Shocking Grey
Backups/savers: 8-Don’t Ju Forget
Forecast: Shocking Grey displayed a bit of promise when rallying to be second in her debut last month in a similar state-bred turf sprint for fillies and mares and today gets an extra half furlong to work with for a barn that has strong stats (21%) with the second-time starter angle. We’ll put her on top but also include on a backup ticket Don’t Ju Forget, a six-race maiden who was third race in the same race as Shocking Grey exits and also is likely to enjoy today’s extended sprint distance.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:22 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Midnight Jostar
Backups/savers: 7-Go On
Forecast: Midnight Jostar hasn’t always been one to trust (he’s 3-for-23 and winless in four starts over the Santa Anita turf) but in this softer-than-par entry level allowance turf miler the Phil D’Amato-trained gelding looks well-spotted for a breakthrough performance. He’s actually quite strong in the speed figure department but his lack of tactical speed always makes his task more difficult than it should be. He’s run well for jockey Ryan Curatolo in the past, so with good racing luck he should be capable of producing a winning late kick. If you prefer some protection, toss in Go On as a backup or a saver. The Doug O’Neill-trained colt returned from Dubai to finish a willing third in a downhill turf dash last month, and though he’s always been a bit too one-paced for our liking he did manage to finish fourth in the much tougher San Antonio S.-G2 around two turns last December, so the stretch out in trip shouldn’t be a problem.
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