“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita/Keenland
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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BREEDERS’ CUP SATURDAY – KEENELAND
RACE 3: BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT. Post: 11:50 ET Grade: A-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Goodnight Olive
Backups/savers: 13-Echo Zulu
Forecast: b>Goodnight Olive, listed as the morning line favorite at 3-1, has much in her favor and offers excellent wagering value at that price (if you can get it). The daughter of Ghostzapper finished a strong second in her debut back in the spring of 2021 and has been untouchable since, winning her next five races, each with complete authority and by daylight, most recently the Ballerina S.-G1 at Saratoga at this same seven furlong trip. Freshened for more than two months but with a solid and healthy work tab in the interim, she has the type of tactical speed that is ideal for this extended sprint distance plus a runaway win in her only start over the Keeneland main track and rising speed figures topped by the 102 Beyer number that was earned in her most recent outing. Echo Zulu, a winner of six of seven starts including last year’s BC Juvenile Fillies, is a reasonable candidate to toss in as a saver if you feel the need. She is drawn comfortably outside, looked terrific winning the Dogwood S.-G3 in her comeback in September at Churchill Downs, continues to impress in the morning, and is guaranteed a soft stalking trip from her outside draw.
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RACE 4: BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT. Post: 12:29 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Highfield Princess; 8-Golden Pal
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Golden Pal, a two-time Breeders’ Cup winner and the defending champion of this race, is the quickest in the field and will be tough to catch if breaks like he did in this race last year. The Wesley Ward-trained colt is a perfect four-for-four over the Keeneland turf course, and while his most recent two wins – in the Troy S.-G3 at Saratoga and the Woodford S.-G2 over this course and distance last month – haven’t been overpowering, we suspect the son of Uncle Mo will bring his best stuff when it is needed the most. However, while we’ll certainly include him in all of our exotics, our main punch will be reserved for the brilliant European sprinting mare Highfield Princess, victorious in her last three starts, all Group-1 events (in Ireland, England, and France), each with off-the-charts Timeform ratings. She may not be as quick leaving the gate as Golden Pal but once in motion she can be as fast as she needs to be. We envision the 5-year-old mare stalking ‘Pal to the head of the lane, taking dead aim, and then proving best late, and if you can get close to her morning line of 7/2, you have to take it.
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RACE 5: BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE. Post: 1:10 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Cody’s Wish
Backups/savers: 5-Gunite; 3-Pipeline
Forecast: With the late scratching of Laurel River, this year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile takes on a different look, though the early fractions still should be quick enough to set things up for Cody’s Wish. The form suggests the son of Curlin is most comfortable as a late-running sprinter, but it’s entirely possible that at this stage of his career, the Bill Mott-trained 4-year-old is simply better now than he’s ever been and thus will be equally effective around two turns. His victory in the seven Forego S.-G1 at Saratoga was spectacular, as he was forced to rally wide against the grain to collar odds-on Jackie’s Warrior close home. A duplication of that effort today – which is eminently possible – wins the race. We’ll also include on our ticket as backups the two strongest pace types, Pipeline and Gunite. The former might be the controlling speed and could take this field a long away if not respected (especially with the abbreviated run from the top of the stretch to the short wire), while the latter has never been sharper and could run another cracker from a comfortable pace-stalking position in his first try over a distance of ground.
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RACE 6: BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE TURF. Post: 1:50 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Above the Curve; 3-Nashwa; 11-In Italian
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: As displayed in no uncertain terms yesterday, the Euros have a significant edge over the North American turf runners and for that reason we will give <band Nashwa the edge over the top U.S. representative, In Italian, while using all three in our rolling exotic main ticket. Above the Curve and Nashwa are tough to separate – they finished noses apart when two-three in the Prix de l’Opera-G1 over heavy ground at Longchamp on Arc Day – and if both bring their “A” game they will be tough to beat. ‘Curve is a daughter of American Pharoah, who we suspect will appreciate firm ground, while Team Gosden’s Nashwa, a multiple Group-1 winner, employs ideal stalking tactics that will provide for a trouble-free journey. In Italian has won her last two with complete authority, and if she is handed the front end without pressure she should be difficult to get by. It will be surprising if the winner isn’t one of these three, with our main punch going to Above the Curve.
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RACE 7: BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT. Post: 2:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Jackie’s Warrior
Backups/savers: 6-Elite Power
Forecast: Jackie’s Warrior was beaten at 50 cents on the dollar in last year’s renewal of the BC Sprint-G1 and failed again at a very short price when worn down in the Forego S.-G1 by Cody’s Choice last time out, so he may be hard to trust, even though he’s clearly the controlling speed and will benefit greatly by Jack Christopher’s defection. Successful in 12 of 17 career starts, the son of Maclean’s Music has won four of five career outings at this traditional sprint distance of six furlongs, and given the projected pace flow the Steve Asmussen-trained colt shouldn’t miss this silver platter-styled opportunity. As a backup or an exacta partner with heavy favorite, you should consider Elite Power on your ticket. Vastly improved since early June, the son of Curlin has won his last four with rising speed figures and was never better winning the Vosburgh S.-G2 at Aqueduct in his most recent appearance last month. He’s the one Jackie’s Warrior must worry about close home.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:10 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Pogo; 4-Modern Games; 13-Kinross
Backups/Savers: 10-Order of Australia; 11-Annapolis; 6-Ivar
Forecast: This may be the most challenging race in the two-day Breeders’ Cup carnival. We’ve identified six legitimate possibilities, so best advice is to include as many in your rolling exotic play as your budget allows. Pogo is listed at 20-1 on the morning line but is better than that, especially if he can secure his preferred trip as the controlling speed. From the rail, he’s certain to be given that opportunity, and if he can sneak clear during the early stages without being pressured, the Irish-bred horse may get brave and take this field a long way. Modern Games and Kinross are obviously good enough to win, though ‘Games failed to capitalize on a perfect trip when finishing second on British Champions Day three weeks ago and may be over the top (though his trainer doesn’t think so). Kinross is stuck farther out than we’d prefer; with a better draw we’d be strongly in his corner. As for the backups, Order of Australia was a shocking winner of this race two years ago over this same course and distance and doesn’t look any worse on form then he did then, so we’ll use him. Annapolis is genuine and consistent but will have to step forward, while Ivar should run on late and could easily get at least a piece of it.
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RACE 9: Post: 3:55 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Malaathat; 6-Nest; 8-Society
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Malathaat has never trained or run better than in the present and is perfect in three starts over the Keeneland main track. She’ll enjoy a golden trip from her rail post, and while she probably will need a career top performance to win, the daughter of Curlin may be up to the task. Her stable mate, Nest, has won her last three races by a combined 26 lengths, and is the deserving 9/5 morning line favorite. She is as good as they come. Society is lone speed and will have a reasonable chance to wire the field if not policed. She’s won six of seven career starts and lost all chance at the start in the one race she didn’t win. The daughter of Gun Runner a little slower on speed figures than the Pletcher pair, but she’s not even close to reaching her ceiling. You have to include her somewhere.
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RACE 10: Post: 4:40 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Rebel’s Romance
Backups/savers: 2-War Like Goddess; 7-Nations Pride
Forecast: Rebel’s Romance began his career running exclusively on dirt or all-weather surfaces in England and Dubai but since being switched to grass, the Dubawi gelding has won all four of his starts, each a group stakes race, most recently back-to-back Group-1’s in Germany. On pure form he’s every bit as good as last year’s BC Turf winner Yibir, so at 3-1 on the morning line he’s a strong play in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. The other Godolphin entrant from the Appleby yard is the 3-year-old Nations Pride, who returned home to England after winning back-to-back graded stakes in New York during the summer and was supposed to be done for the year. However, he’s clearly maintained his edge, so he’s back with a real chance. This will be his first try against older competition, so he’ll need to step forward, but could easily be capable of doing so. War Like Goddess is the best of the American contingent but as good as she’s always been (nine wins in 12 starts), the daughter of English Channel hasn’t ever beaten anything as good as Rebel’s Romance. She’ll get her chance today.
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RACE 11: Post: 5:40 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Flightline
Backups/savers: 1-Taiba
Forecast: Flightline was out of this world winning the Pacific Classic-G1 by almost 20 lengths and has looked every bit as good, if not better, in his breezes since. Drawn outside the likely pacesetter Life Is Good, the son of Tapit can use that colt as a target and then go on by when ready. If you’re trying to find another horse for exacta purposes, you should zero in on Taiba, who will be rolling late and should be more than capable of picking up the pieces.
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SATURDAY – SANTA ANITA
RACE 1: Post: 12:030 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Synnin and Winnin
Backups/savers: 2-Curly Esa
Forecast: Synnin and Winnin has been sparingly raced with big gaps in between outings, so it’s not surprising that he shows up in a $50,000 maiden claimer for the first time after three runs facing straight maiden company. This is a significant class drop for the Brian Koriner-trained gelding after finishing a moderate fourth over the local lawn last month. With an extra half furlong to work with today, the son of Mr. Big should be capable of producing a winning late kick. As a backup, we’ll also include Curly Esa on a ticket or two. As a nine race maiden, he’s certainly not one to trust, but his figures are competitive, he shows the route-to-sprint angle that we like and has run fairly well over this course and distance in the past.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Famous Star
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Famous Star, a beaten favorite in two of last three starts, drops into the $50,000 ranks today and has never had an easier spot to break his maiden. While certainly not trustworthy and not really offering great value at 9/5 on the morning line, the John Sadler-trained colt continues to work well, shows better than par speed figures for the level, and should be quick enough to be on or near the lead throughout. In a race that might be best left alone, he can be used as a rolling exotic single by reason of default.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:52 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Mister Beams
Backups/savers: 3-Bizzy Gal
Forecast: Mister Beams won at first asking vs. maiden claimers in clever style at Gulfstream Park in early September, was purchased privately after the race, and today shows up in a starter optional claimer for trainer Doug O’Neill while switching from synthetic to grass. He sports a solid, healthy work tab since arriving in California and should be primed and ready to step forward and win again. Bizzy Gal, a filly tackling the boys, seeks her third straight win for trainer Peter Miller and is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite, though we wouldn’t be surprised if ‘Beams ends up as the chalk. She won her most recent race on dirt from off the pace, and similar late-running tactics are likely to be employed again. However, the quick turnaround (eight days) is a bit problematic. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics, with the main punch going to Mister Beams.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:22 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Hialeah Hottie
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Hialeah Hottie finished second in a maiden $40,000 sprint for juvenile fillies here last month while more than five lengths clear of the rest and today returns as the 4/5 favorite in a maiden $32,000 affair with a considerable edge in the speed figure department. Clearly, her connections doesn’t care if they lose her (and we suspect they will), so this may not be a short price worth taking in a race that probably is best avoided. She’s a likely winner in an empty race, but there is little to no wagering value to be found, so tread lightly.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:04 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Liberty Forever; 8-Exceed Speed Limit
Backups/savers:
Forecast: Liberty Forever just won a similar state-bred first level allowance affair two-turning on grass but is eligible for the same condition because today he’s sprinting on dirt. The good news for the son of Dixie Chatter is that he’s probably just as effective on the main track and around one turn, so there’s no reason to think this versatile Peter Miller-trained sophomore can’t come right back and win again. With regular pilot Juan Hernandez away at Keeneland today with more important things to do, hot-riding Ramon Vasquez (32% with this barn) gladly picks up the mount. Exceed Speed Limit, himself a turf sprint winner last time out at this level and eligible to return in the same type of race on dirt, has won five of 15 career starts while employing an effective late-running style. He’s a two-time winner at this abbreviated sprint distance and should be heard from late. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Gypsy King
Backups/savers: 6-Rip City
Forecast: Gypsy King finished a close third in a recent downhill turf dash and today stretches out to a mile, a distance he should be able to handle (he finished fifth in a Kentucky Downs stakes in his only prior route try two years ago). The Phil D’Amato-trained gelding projects to be on the lead or very close to it, and with rising speed figures coupled with a favorable pace flow the son of Summer Front looks fairly solid at 7/2 on the morning line. Rip City shows several races in his chart that could win this race, but this will be his first start since being claimed by Steve Knapp for $80,000 out of a ninth place finish in the same race our top pick exits. On the chance that he returns to top form for his new connections, we’ll use the veteran City Zip gelding as a backup while saving the main punch for Gypsy King.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Vinny the Code; 2-Crowning Gold
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: Vinny the Code displayed good speed in his debut in a high priced maiden claiming sprint for juveniles at Del Mar, leading the way into the lane before weakening late to wind up fourth (beaten more than five lengths) while earning a respectable speed figure for a first time starter. Now, will he step forward or fall back? The Tim Yakteen barn has solid stats with second time starters, so we’re expecting the son of Accelerate to at least run as well if not better in this moderate event. A healthy, steady series of workouts during the past several weeks is encouraging, so at 3-1 on the morning line he’s worth a solid gamble in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. Crowning Gold has similar numbers but already has had four chances, so we suspect Vinny the Code has more room for improvement and therefore rates top billing. But ‘Gold has produced a forward move in each race, so if he can step forward again, he’ll be a legitimate threat. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:37 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Creative Peak
Backups/savers: 12-Gregory’s Pride; 11-Respect the Code
Forecast: This is a contentious turf sprint for first level allowance older horses that requires some coverage in rolling exotic play. We’ve pinpointed three major players but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead. Creative Peak may have found his niche as a late-running turf sprinter. His win over five furlongs from off the pace in his first race on grass was impressive against state-bred foes, and if repeated, should make him a major player right back in open company, especially with an extra furlong to work with. Ramon Vasquez stays aboard, knows him well, and will this Vladimir Cerin-trained colt rolling late. The other three contenders will have to overcome extreme outside draws. Gregory’s Pride, consistently dangerous in turf sprints but showing only one win in 12 starts along with nine seconds and thirds, always seems to be day late and a dollar short but with good racing luck and some help up front should make his presence felt in the final furlong. Respect the Code, a solid runner-up at this level in a downhill turf dash, has gradually rising speed figures but we’re concerned about what type of trip he can secure from the 11-hole.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:40 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Holiday Arousal
Backups/savers: 2-Doc Adams; 9-Back Ring Luck
Forecast: Based on the raw form this $25,000 claiming sprint has two “must use” contenders, but both have unhealthy activity patterns, so it may be wise to look elsewhere. Doc Adams was fairly solid winning a first-level allowance state bred main track miler in late August at Del Mar and today shows up in a straight $25,000 claimer, which may realistically be where he belongs based on speed figures and the fact that he was a voided claim for $25,000 last spring. On the other hand, the Vronsky gelding missed the entire month of September and worked only twice last month. Hard to say what kind of shape he’s in, but from a low profile outfit we’re not terribly optimistic. Back Ring Luck earned a big figure in an off-the-turf nine furlong affair for this price in early September and was haltered by trainer Steve Knapp, who then kept him in the barn for almost two months before bringing him back at the same level, not a normal pattern for this outfit and certainly not one that that inspires confidence. The gelding’s record over the Santa Anita main track (unplaced in five starts) is another red flag. On the other hand, Knapp’s other entrant – the first-off-the-$16,000-claim Holiday Arousal – seems the most trustworthy of the group, as the lightly-raced gelding, who began his career cheap up north (M8,000) has won his last three starts with rising speed figures and is being jumped in class following his most recent win for $16,000. He might be the one to hook your wagon to.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:35 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Cocktail Princess ; 8-Moorea Time
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Cocktail Princess always is suspect under pressure close home but may have found a field she can open up on and then hang on. The daughter of Stay Thirsty, second while more than three lengths clear of the rest over this course and distance last time out, figures as the controlling speed in a field in which the other experienced runners aren’t much and the first-time starters not impressive. We’ll put her on top but also toss in the unexposed Moorea Time, a non-threatening sixth in a productive race in her debut over a mile on grass at Del Mar in August and today shortening in trip, retaining Abel Cedillo, and very likely the most dangerous of the closing types.
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