July 31, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Saratoga
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Saratoga 4th Race – Post: 2:52 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 5-Toscano.
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: Lightly raced with rising speed figures, Toscano shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern in a race in which there is a reasonable possibility he can become the controlling speed. Bred to handle the nine furlong trip, the son of Vino Rosso retains I. Ortiz, Jr., who we suspect will let this gelding roll from the start to take advantage of the favorable race flow. After graduating in his debut at Hawthorne in early May, the L. Rivelli-trained sophomore finished a solid runner-up in a productive seven furlong allowance race here at the Spa in June and seems likely to produce another forward move following a series of smart workouts in the interim at his home base in Chicago. Listed at 3-1 on the morning line, he’s a reasonable gamble at or near that price in the win pool and in the various exotics.
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Saratoga 5th race – Post: 3:26 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 6-Grace and Grit.
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: Purchased for $350,000 at the OBS March sale after impressing when previewing a furlong in a snappy :10 flat (never really asked), Grace and Grit makes her debut in a New York-bred two-turn grass affair that looks ripe for the taking. The J. Kimmel-trained juvenile shows a solid series of steady drills that includes a bullet gate move over the Belmont Park training track (:47bg, fastest of 98) earlier this month that should have her plenty fit. After being vanned to the Spa for her most recent two easy drills over the Saratoga turf training track, the daughter of Munnings should be primed and ready for a major effort in a race that came up relatively light. While it’s true that the barn doesn’t win often with debut runners, this highly attractive, good sized filly with plenty of scope could prove to be the exceptional to the rule, and at 8-1 on the morning line there is plenty of value to be found in both the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
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