The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
DEL MAR
Wednesday, August 30, 2017
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Cute Knows Cute; 5-Pasadena Princess; 6-Put It On Ice; 8-Winsinfashion
Forecast: The opener is an inscrutable maiden claiming sprint for juvenile fillies, a pass race other than to spread in rolling exotic play. Cute Knows Cute is the morning line choice at 2-1 and is a contender but nothing more. She just failed at 7/5 when an okay runner-up vs. similar and trained reasonably well since at SLRD so a forward move is possible. Pasadena Princess has shown enough in the morning to be considered a contender at this level; however, the Baltas barn isn’t known for winning with first-timers. Winsinfashion has the dangerous speed/fade/class drop angle for her second lifetime start while removing blinkers and will leave from cozy outside post position. Put It On Ice is one of those sneaky Miyadi first-timers with slow works that likely will run a whole lot better than expected.
RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: X
Single: 4-Corps de Ballet
Forecast: Corps de Ballet is the logical top choice based on very strong recent speed figures and an excellent runner-up effort in the Osunitas Stakes in her most recent outing. There’s not much value to be found – she’s 8/5 on the morning line – so this is another race that might be best left alone, though in rolling exotic play she can be used as a rolling exotic single.
RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-On a Toot; 8-Wicked Old Fashion
Forecast: On a Toot, a $320,000 yearling buy, walked out of the gate in her debut at Pimlico in May and was no threat. Today, she shows up at the bottom for new trainer Harty. The work tab is average but she’s actually looked pretty good in the morning, and we suspect she’s a lot better than her morning line of 10-1 would indicate. Wicked Old Fashion earned a fairly decent number when second in her debut earlier this month vs. similar while six lengths clear of the others. A similar effort today could very well be good enough.
RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Candy Boss; 8-Lady Ninja; 9-Secret Shopper
Forecast: Secret Shopper couldn’t match strides with Munny Spunt in a $32,000 claiming sprint last month but that race looks a lot better now since ‘Spunt came back to win a stakes race (via disqualification), and there are certainly no stakes types in this starter’s allowance race. The daughter of Shackleford has rising speed figures and should draft into an ideal pace-stalking trip outside. Candy Boss may be the quickest in the field and seems sure to try gate-to-wire tactics from her inside draw. Lady Ninja is lightly-raced and gradually improving. She has the route-to-sprint, turf-to-dirt angles that make her intriguing for a hot barn and two nice workouts since raced. Worth nothing is that she’s a perfect one-for-one on dirt.
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Arunachala; 5-Candy Bark; 7-Little Benchy
Forecast: This is a wide open grass grab bag for maiden fillies and mares sprinting five furlongs. Candy Bark has a string of sharp drills at San Luis Rey Downs that should have her fit and ready for the D’Amato barn (solid with debut runners) and seems sure to get plenty of play. Arunachala has worked a bit better than her moderate work tab would lead you to believe and is worth using at 8-1 on the morning. The Eurton barn certainly is capable with first-timers. Gary Mandella has a sneaky debut runner in Little Benchy, a daughter of Benchmark that has displayed some good quickness in her morning trials. At 12-1 on the morning line she may offer the best value in the field. All three should be included in rolling exotic play.
RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Show It N Moe It
Forecast: The last two races by Show It N Moe It – an easy maiden win following by a strong score in the CTBA Stakes – points her out as a standout in this state-bred stakes for juvenile fillies. She has an excellent stalking style and today’s extra half-furlong won’t bother her in the least. She’s 5/2 on the morning line and there’s plenty of value here if you can get it. Let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-West Coast Bias; 5-Cordiality; 7-Salsita
Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in the seventh race, an optional/claimer over a mile on turf for fillies and mares. Salsita is a course specialist – she’s 4-for-7 lifetime over the local lawn – and comes off a clever win vs. slightly softer foes over this course and distance last month. Roman stays aboard and will have her doing her best work late. Cordiality, first or second in nine of 14 career starts, is genuine, consistent, and a strong fit on speed figures. She has good tactical speed and should have every chance with Baze staying aboard. West Coast Bias crushed a maiden field in her first start since arriving from Maryland, winning with something left. She’s a progressive sort capable of further improvement.
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Old School Ike; 9-Flip the Coin Jan
Forecast: Flip the Coin Jan has chased infinitely tougher company in his first two career outings and hasn’t done badly at all, finishing third behind the promising Zulfikhar at Los Alamitos in a fast sprint in July and then coming home a distant fourth behind Bolt d’Oro in a hot straight maiden dash here earlier this month. The son of Trappe Shot continues to impress in the morning and with the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out angle in his corner he is clearly the one to beat. Old School Ike tries maiden claimers and dirt for the first time after two non-competitive races vs. tougher on grass. His work tab at San Luis Rey Downs looks healthy, so we’re expecting the Miller-trained ridgeling to improve a bunch against this group.
SARATOGA
Wednesday, August 30, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Special Risk
RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: X
Single: 4-Call Provision
RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Street Heat; 4-Dunk a Din
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Transaction Tax; 4-More Than a Legend; 5-Everything’s Copa
RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: C
Use: 2-Mistyh On Pointe; 3-Tarquinia; 5-Avery Maeve; 8-Monavista Crossing
RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Seam; 6-Wise Streak
RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Moana; 3-Palinodie
RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Patternrecognition; 6-Mr. Crow
RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 7-Machtree; 9-Evaluator; 11-Seabhac
RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Climb the Ladder; 6-Salty Smile; 9-Under Suspicion
