Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Let Her Inspire U; 2-Twist Just Right
Forecast: Let Her Inspire U finished an okay fourth in her debut in what was a stronger than par state-bred maiden special weight sprint for juvenile fillies last month, and second-time starters from the T. Pletcher click at a strong 23% so we’re expecting this daughter of Practical Joke to be hard to beat. The first-timers don’t appear to be anything special, so let’s go with the known element on top but also include Twist Just Right on the ticket as well. The daughter of Distorted Humor has worked just okay while preparing for her first start, but we know that maidens from the J. Abreu almost always run better than they train, and this filly may as well.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: C+
Use: 4-Spirit Animal; 5-Boru; 10-Smile Bryan
Forecast: Spirit Animal was unplaced in the Kilroe Mile-G1 in his most recent outing in early March at Santa Anita and today shows up in a $25,000 claimer as yet another member of the cull brigade during this meeting from the Klaravich stable. He’s had a sketchy career and was a voided claim more than a year ago, so it’s not entirely suspicious that this five year old horse with only 10 starts career starts is part of the barn’s summer house cleaning. If he has one good one left, the C. Brown-trained son of Lemon Drop Kid will beat this field, but at 9/5 on the morning line there’s not much wagering value to be found. Smile Bryan had a poor post and was never in the hunt when far back in a much tougher $80,000 optional claimer here earlier this month, but at this level the O. Noda-trained gelding could improve considerably. He has good tactical speed and should find himself on or near the lead in a race that projects to be slowly run early. Reunited with L. Saez, who was aboard ‘Bryan in a good score vs. entry-level allowance foes last month, the son of Goldencents is listed at 6-1 on the morning line and is playable at that price. Boru has the blinkers off angle that we like and makes his first start in six weeks after being a voided claim at this price last time out at Belmont Park. Clearly, there’s a condition question but the son of Curlin removes blinkers, has numbers that are competitive at this level, and a closing kick that always must be respected. He’s listed at 15-1 on the morning line and on his best day is better than that.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Cambi Lion; 4-Orchestration
Forecast: Cambi Lion has an improving pattern and appears ready to graduate in this mile and three-sixteenths turf event for older maidens. In the frame in his last two, the son of Medaglia d’Oro is guaranteed an ideal ground-saving trip from his rail post position and projects to settle in mid-pack and then have every opportunity to produce a winning late kick. J. Ortiz stays aboard, knows him well, and will be sure not to give Shug’s colt too much to do from the quarter pole home. Orchestration is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite by virtue of a runner-up effort in his debut at Ellis Park in late June. There wasn’t a whole lot in the field, and we suspect there was a reason he ran in Kentucky rather than in the “Bigs”, but the son of Flatter certainly has room for improvement with distance and experience. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Cambi Lion.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: C+
Use: 1-Cathy Naz; Miss Liana
Forecast: Due to an uncertain pace scenario, this $12,500 claiming sprint for fillies and mares looks treacherous. Miss Liana lost her rider at the start and was a voided claim for $20,000 here last month but if she’s okay today the O. Noda-trained daughter of Warrior’s Reward should be tough. However, she’s strictly a need the lead type and will have to deal with a Finger Lakes shipper who also has only one way to go and that’s on the front end from the get-go. Quality Stones doesn’t quite have the speed figures to match up with Miss Liana if that one brings her best stuff. but she certainly can apply plenty of pressure (as can Frills), so a pace meltdown is possible. If so, who might benefit? Cathy Naz is certain to get outfooted early, but she’s shown the ability to win from behind, so with the patient ride she’s certain to receive from L. Saez, the daughter of Bluegrass Cat has to be given a decent look at 6-1 on the morning line. In a race in which nothing would surprise, we’ll use the two listed above in rolling exotic play but otherwise pass the race.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: B+
Use: 4-Rattle N Roll; 8-Keepcalmcarryon
Forecast: In what certainly will be a test of stamina, two-year-olds stretch out to nine furlongs on the main track. Not surprisingly, there are no first-timers in the field. Keepcalmcarryon has the benefit of a couple of races under his belt and with the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern combined with rising numbers for T. Pletcher the son of Union Rags should be tough to deny. He was more than four lengths clear of the rest when rallying to be a clear second earlier this month in a solid seven furlong affair and this longer trip should be right up his alley. Rattle N Roll closed a gap sprinting in his debut in a fairly decent race won by the nice prospect Gunite, has trained well since for K. McPeek, picks up J. Ortiz, and is bred to get the trip. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have extra tickets keying Keepcalmcarryon on top.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B+
Use: 2-Jazz Time Girl; 5-Halo of Fire; 8-Our Souper Love
Forecast: Halo of Fire is a first-timer from the W. Ward with a series of impressive turf works on her resume and moves and acts very much like a win-early type. She’s easily handled her workmates while getting over the grass just fine, and with J. Rosario taking the call for a trainer who hits at an amazing 33% with his debut runners, this homebred daughter of Union Rags from Canadian stakes winner Awesome Fire looks ready to win right now. The speedy Lady Scarlet has two prior outings behind her and earned a big figure when second in a very fast, highly-rated race won by Echo Zulu on the main track last month. If she can transfer her dirt form to turf, she’ll take some catching, for sure. Not much is known about the Ellis Park shipper Jazz Time Girl, other than she shows a bullet five furlong gate work (1:00hg, fastest of 16) two weeks ago, gets I. Ortiz, Jr., and is bred for turf (Temple City). It’s possible that her connections are using this race as a springboard for a stretch-out but at 8-1 on the morning line she’s worth including somewhere.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: B+
Single: 9-Montauk Summer
Forecast: Montauk Summer was pitched a little too high when a close fourth at 31-1 in a first-level allowance event in mid-June at Belmont Park, earning a career top number in doing so, and after a 10-week vacation the son of Summer Front appears well-spotted today to regain his winning form in a restricted (nw-3) $35,000 middle distance claimer over the inner turf course. E. Cancel rides a lot of live runners for the C Clement barn, but after putting this colt on the lead last time out he’ll probably take back a bit, find some cover, and then produce him late. Based strictly on numbers, ‘Summer should beat this field, so in what may appear to be a wide open grass grab bag, we’re going to sink or swim with Montauk Summer in the win pool and in rolling exotic play at 9/2 on the morning line.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Easy to Bless; 4-Whispering Pines
Forecast: Easy to Bless appears to offer good gambling value at 5-1 on the morning line in this allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares. The daughter of Flat Out earned a career top speed figure in her first-off-the-claim for J. Ferraro when stalking the pace and then drawing clear with authority 18 days ago, and at this seven furlong trip that suits her style perfectly she looks capable of taking the one-level class hike in stride. Whispering Pines must be included on your ticket as well. The daughter of Uncle Mo exits the much tougher Shine Again S. in which she finished fourth when simply not good enough but based on speed figures she’s right there with these. The H. DePaz-trained four-year-old retains J. Ortiz, and like our top pick she should settle just behind the leaders and then have every chance from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Keeper of Time; 7-Rastafara; 10-Love and Money
Forecast: Keeper of Time won the 1000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown last spring at 80-1 but in viewing the video of the race the victory sure didn’t look like a fluke. Always traveling well in mid-pack in the 15-runner field, she angled out for room straightening for home, hit the front, and then bravely held sway over Mehnah, who returned to win a listed stakes in her next outing. In victory, ‘Time earned a legitimate 99 Timeform Rating, after which she was sold to American interests. She has trained nicely for her U.S. debut, appears plenty fit, and should be able to reproduce her Irish form in this year’s renewal of the Riskaverse S. for sophomore fillies over a mile on the inner course. At 6-1 on the morning line, she’s worth a bit of gamble. The C. Brown-trained Rastafara recently broke her maiden with a career top number like a filly who’ll do nothing but continue to improve with experience. She’ll be rolling late and is a “must use” in the various exotics. Love and Money, stretching out after an impressive maiden turf sprint win at Monmouth Park, didn’t quite have the foundation to handle the class and distance hike and was swallowed up late when beaten at 6/5 in a first-level allowance event over this course and distance last month. She was quite keen early, and it cost her; today, if she can relax early, she might be able to carry her natural speed to the wire, though in viewing her recent workouts the daughter of More Than Ready hasn’t yet quite learned to switch off. She does make a favorable rider switch to L. Saez, so she has to be given something of a chance to wire the field in her role as the controlling speed.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Fast Getaway; 9-Mystery Messenger
Forecast: It’s always a good sign when a trainer claims a horse back, and that’s what V. Cerin did with Mystery Messenger, a tough, veteran gelding who was beaten a head for his former trainer two runs back for $32,000 and then missed by a half-length when dropped a notch to $25,000 in his most recent outing when saddled by R. Falcone, Jr. The ex-Californian moves back to the $32,000 ranks today, picks up J. Rosario, and can be expected to fire his usual big shot from a second flight, stalking position. With good racing luck he can be along in time. Fast Getaway missed by a neck when worn down late in a restricted (nw-2) $45,000 claimer last month and was claimed by M. Maker, who returns him on the drop while switching to L. Saez. This is an open affair so it’s hardly a softer spot, but the barn has had a terrific meeting while aggressively placing its stock and this son of Into Mischief, with a bullet :47 breezing workout at Belmont Park just six days ago, has the kind of early speed that makes him extremely dangerous. These are the two will be using in our rolling exotics, with a slight edge on top to Mystery Messenger
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