Jeff Siegel’s Daily Workout Report, Analysis, & Wagering Strategies
Santa Anita
Wednesday, January 1, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Today’s Day Makers: View Video
Today’s Workout Analysis: View Report
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RACE 1: Post 11:30 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Jurgen
Forecast: Jurgen finished a distant but promising third in his debut in Ireland last August behind Mogul, who returned to win a Group-2 race in his next outing. The son of Kitchen’s Joy makes his U.S. debut and isn’t facing anything remotely that tough in this mile turf affair. Recent works indicate he’s fit and ready for a major effort, and the J. Sadler-J. Rosario trainer-jockey team is lethal, hitting 37% with a significant flat-bet profit. At 6-1 on the morning line this first-time Lasix user is a straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Handsome Michael; 5-Shootin Money
Forecast: Shootin Money may be as good as any in this maiden-claiming sprint for newly-turned 3-year-olds. A strong second at this level two runs back but in too tough when facing maiden $50,000 company at Los Alamitos last month, the P. Oviedo-trained colt has numbers that fit and projects to be in a good-pressing/stalking position and have every chance to earn his diploma in a modest affair. Handsome Michael tries sprinting for the first time in his fourth career start and this drop from the $80,000 maiden claiming level should make him extremely competitive. On pure numbers, the son of Temple City projects to be right there. Let’s try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics but in a race in which nothing is trustworthy feel free to spread deeper if your budget allows.
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RACE 3: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-California Street; 3-Justinian
Forecast: Justinian is progressing nicely for B. Baffert and after earning a career top speed figure when dismantling a first-level allowance field at Los Alamitos last month seems quite capable of winning again on the raise with continued improvement. The son of Justin Phillip graduated over this main track during the fall season and shows a bullet five furlong drill (5f, :59.4h, fastest of 76) four days ago to have him right on edge. California Street stretches out again after a series of sprints, and because he broke his maiden over a route of ground back in the fall of 2017 today’s extra distance shouldn’t be an issue. Solid in the speed figure department and looking sharp in the a.m. since his last outing, the P. Gallagher-trained gelding retains F. Prat, lands the good rail, and projects to enjoy a ground-saving, second flight trip. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Justinian on top.
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RACE 4: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Champers; 5-Rip City; 9-Mr. Unusual
Forecast: Here’s an open affair requiring a spread; we’ll use three and hope that’s enough. Champers drops from stakes competition into a maiden claimer, and the R. Hess, Jr.-trained colt showed a liking for the local lawn when third, beaten a neck, in a maiden special weight turf miler during the fall season. A repeat of that race in this easier assignment should be good enough to land the odds. Rip City is another class dropper worth consideration. A close fourth (beaten less than a length) in straight maiden company last month at Del Mar at this distance on grass charts very well here and based on the projected race flow this son of City Zip could inherit the role as the controlling speed. Mr. Unusual, a closing but non-threatening sixth in his debut, makes his first start since being claimed for $32,000 by J. Sadler with obvious designs on stretching him out and trying grass. By Mr Speaker from a mare by Unusual Heat, this sophomore gelding clearly is bred to improve leaps and bounds at this trip on this surface, so at 10-1 on the morning line he’s a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 5: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Tapitha Bonita; 7-Nomizar
Forecast: Tapitha Bonita has three wins on her resume, all accomplished over the Santa Anita main track, and with this drop from a tough starter’s allowance $32,000 affair into a mid-grade claimer the daughter of Street Hero should be capable of regaining her winning form. She retains regular rider T. Pereira, and with good racing luck may be capable of producing the last rail despite her rail post position. Nomizar enjoyed a dream outside run to register a nice score for $32,000 (her claim level) at Del Mar in mid-November and today returns in a $25,000 affair off a 44-day vacation, not the healthiest of pattern. However, if she can turn in two alike (never her strong suit), she’ll be right there again. Preference on top goes to Tapitha Bonita but we’ll have tickets including both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Courteous; 2-Seaside Dancer; 3-Peter’s Kitten
Forecast: Seaside Dancer appears well-spotted in her first-off-the-claim for P. Miller (33% with a huge flat-bet profit with this angle) and with a perfect record (2-for-2) over the local lawn and fresh from earning a career top speed figure when narrowly missing in her most recent outing the daughter of Fed Biz seems primed for another big shot. Probably most effective as the controlling speed but capable of winning in a stalker’s role if the race flow dictates, she retains A. Cedillo and offers value at or near her morning line of 5-1. Courteous draws the rail and seems likely to make the running. In her 11th career start she’s a first-time Lasix user with numbers that fit, has prior win over the local lawn, retains regular jockey J. Talamo, and could get brave if not pressured early. Peter’s Kitten has hit the board in all three of her prior starts over the Santa Anita turf course and has trained well enough to be fit and ready in her first outing since July. The J. Sadler barn is strong with layoffs (22% with a flat-bet profit) and with J. Rosario taking the call the veteran daughter of Kitten’s Joy looks like a very live item. Also, there should be plenty of pace to compliment her late-running style. Any one of these three certainly appear capable of winning, so we’ll triple the race in our rolling exotics while giving a very slight edge on top to Seaside Dancer.
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RACE 7: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Winning Element
Forecast: Winning Element is 8/5 on the morning line and on paper deserves to be. The veteran gelding has won his last pair in good style, most recently with a career-top speed figure over the Del Mar main track when facing $32,000 company. This one-level step up in class should be well within his range and his good stalking style ensures a clean trip. Generous, versatile, and tough on any surface with regular rider R. Bejarano staying aboard, the son of City Zip looks hard to handle once again, so we’ll make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Texas Wedge; 6-True Valour; 9-Blitzkreig
Forecast: This deep and contentious edition of the Joe Hernandez S.-G2 for turf sprinters has several possibilities and requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Blitzkreig, away since an ill-advised try on dirt in the Gold Cup last June, give every indication that he’s fit and ready following a series of strong, steady workouts at San Luis Rey Downs. Effective at any distance but perhaps best suited as a grass sprinter, the son of War Front returns with regular pilot R. Bejarano in the saddle, and despite the outside draw that may require a rally-wide trip he appears the one to beat off his best effort. True Valour has been a miler most of his career but can be a very capable sprinter when given the chance, as evidenced by his easy win over seven furlongs in a Group-3 stakes at Leopardstown earlier in his career. Victories in the City of Hope Mile-G2 over the local lawn in October but overmatched and unplaced in the BC Mile-G1 the following month, the S. Callaghan-trained horse may be the most dangerous of the off-the-pace types. Texas Wedge returns from the Midwest with strong recent form for P. Miller and projects to be in a good second flight position, ready to pounce. He’s reunited with “win rider” F. Prat and is worth tossing in somewhere at 6-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 9: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Snap Chap; 5-Tizamagician; 6-Divine Armor
Forecast: Snap Chat closed a gap sprinting in a fast heat in his debut and seems sure to move forward considerably with that bit of experience under his belt. A $1.2 million yearling purchase, the D. Chatlos-trained colt removes blinkers, stretches out, and looked very bit like a route-type in a recent breeze with his older Grade-1 winning stable mate Instagrand. With M. Smith riding him back, the son of Into Mischief offers good wagering value at his 5-1 morning line odds. Tizamagician has been second in her last three outings, the most recent pair as a strong favorite, so he may not be one to entirely trust. Still, the son of Tiznow must be considered the one to beat (he’s 8/5 on the morning line) and should have every chance from a projected pace-stalking position. Divine Armor is bred to run long and gave every indication that added distance will be to his liking when a closing third behind subsequent Los Alamitos Futurity-G2 winner Thousand Words in his debut over this track during the fall season. With the stretch out in trip and the switch to J. Rosario, the J. Sadler-trained colt seems likely to be heard from late. Preference on top goes to Snap Chap but all three should be included somewhere on your rolling exotic ticket.
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RACE 10: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Musawaat; 7-Southern King; 9-Red King
Forecast: The nightcap is a challenging first-level allowance nine furlong turf affair. Let’s try to finish out New Year’s Day with a longshot, Southern King, at 10-1 on the morning line. The New York shipper makes his first start since joining the P. Miller barn and may have found a home on grass after winning a nice Belmont Park turf affair two runs back but then failing to threaten in an off-the-turfer over a sloppy track that he clearly didn’t handle in his most recent outing. Sporting a healthy work tab since arriving at San Luis Rey Downs and with the presence of J. Rosario in the saddle, the son of Animal Kingdom seems primed for a career top performance. Red King, a three time winner over the Santa Anita lawn but a beaten choice in two of his last three starts, is reunited with “win rider” A. Gryder, continues to train well for P. D’Amato, and should be running on strongly late. With good racing luck, he’ll be right there. Misawaat is winless in four starts since being imported from Dubai but he gets an extra furlong to worth with today and has the kind of late kick that makes him dangerous with good racing luck and a decent pace to chase.
