Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Sunday, April 3, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Click here to view today’s Santa Anita Workout Report
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade:
Use: 5-Queen’s Code; 8-Storm Seeker
Forecast: The Sunday opener is a state-bred turf sprint for older horses. Queen’s Code had a troubled run when fourth in a similar spot as the favorite last time out but a repeat of his debut grass dash last fall at Del Mar will allow him to make amends. We’re expecting the son of Desert Code to settle in the second flight and then have his chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home. Storm Seeker adds blinkers and returns to what we suspect is his best surface. He had a right to need his recent comeback (speed/fade on dirt) but should be fitter and tighter today. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: X
Single: 1-Gamine
Forecast: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint S.-G1 winner Gamine makes her seasonal bow in this four-runner affair and is listed as the 1/9 morning line favorite. You can use her as a free bingo space in rolling exotic play and better yet just pass the race.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:12 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Kalon; 5-Honey Jar
Forecast: Honey Jar is the best of the speed and Kalon is the best of the stalker/closers in this extended sprint on grass for maiden fillies and mares. ‘Jar, an excellent runner-up in her debut while four lengths clear of the rest, should move forward off that race for a stable that has superior stats with the second-time starter angle, while Kalon has numbers that can win and should get the patient ride she requires from U. Rispoli. In a race that we’ll otherwise leave alone, both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:46 PT Grade: X
Single: 6-Simmer Down
Forecast: Simmer Down has a huge edge in the speed figure department, so unless she regresses or something in this field improves dramatically the R. Hanson-trained daughter of Into Mischief should earn her diploma in this modest maiden claiming main track miler for sophomore fillies. However, at 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower she’ll offer very little wagering value. You can use her as a rolling exotic single or simply sit out the race.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:20 PT Grade: B
Use: 5-Westward Breeze; 6-Squared Shady
Forecast: Westward Breeze shortens in trip, adds Lasix, exits a pair of stakes races and is reunited with “win rider” U. Rispoli so we’re expecting this daughter of Munnings to regain her winning form in this allowance optional claimer for state-bred 3-year-old fillies. She’ll most likely settle in the second flight and then take hold when given her cue at the head of the lane. Squared Shady earned a career top speed figure when a respectable fourth in a similar grass dash here last month and will be tough to contain if she duplicates that effort today. The daughter of Square Eddie projects to be on or near the lead from here cozy outside draw over a turf course that she’s shown she really likes. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to Westward Breeze.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:53 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Brilliant Bird; 3-Uno Trouble Maker; 4-Kirsch Truffle
Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics in this modest $10,000 claiming sprint for older fillies and mares. If you find the need to use a few more, go right ahead. Kirsch Truffle, away since last summer but training quite well for new trainer J. Periban, may be as good as any at 6-1 on the morning line. She gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug girl J. Pyfer and has back numbers that are good enough to beat this field;. We’re expecting her to fire a big shot fresh. Uno Trouble Maker overmatched when facing $32,000 foes up north but returns to her claim level today and should be capable of bouncing back over a main track she’s always loved (seven wins from 15 starts). The veteran mare will be on or near the lead throughout. Brilliant Bird, nosed out by ‘Maker when they squared off here in mid-February, has finished first or second in 15 of 30 career starts and, rail and all, should be set for her typical effort today.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:26 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Moonhall Milly; 2-On Mars
Forecast: The main players in this 10 furlong turf affair for entry-level allowance fillies and mares are drawn inside and are assured of ideal ground-saving trips. Moonhall Milly likes to settle and rally late and should really appreciate this longer distance. She earned a career top speed figure when a good third at this level last time out and should run at least as well if not better today. On Mars, always genuine and consistent, is another that should greatly enjoy mile and one-quarter trip. She finished a head in front of ‘Milly when they met over a mile last month and it may simply boil down to whoever gets the smoothest journey today.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Paid Informant; 2-Kelani Kim
Forecast: Kelani Kim has trained like she’s fit and ready to pick up where she left off 11 months ago and the daughter of Union Rags will be able to outfoot this group if she does. The M. Glatt barn has solid stats with layoff runners and protects this filly in her first start back in a sign of confidence. Paid Informant is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite, and while she’s certainly a major contender that price seems a tad short. Nonetheless, we’ll include the P. Miller-trained daughter of Into Mischief on our ticket due to the class drop, the addition of blinkers, and the switch to F. Prat.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Ultimate Hy; 6-Pistachio Princess; 8-Wishtheyallcouldbe
Forecast: The nightcap is a turf miler for older maiden state-bred fillies and mares. Pistachio Princes has the pedigree to handle the extra distance in her first outing since being claimed by J. Periban for $50,000 last month. She’s trained well for her new connections and could find herself as the controlling speed while sporting the always-dangerous two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern. Ultimate Hy closed well to be second in a promising debut over this course and distance in January and makes her first start since. The layoff is a bit concerning and there’s a five week gap in her works, so she may not be totally trustworthy, but if she repeats her first race she’ll be the one fear most. Wishtheyallcouldbe, away since November and trying grass and two-turns for the first time, is a first-time Lasix user for a good outfit and has a right to return at least as well if not better than she left. At 4-1 on the morning line the M. Puype-trained daughter of Grazen is a “must use.”
