Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Click Here to View Today’s Santa Anita Workout Report
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-Prince Magician; 5-My Summer Dream; 6-Mahaamel
Forecast: The Saturday opener is a messy maiden claiming turf sprint that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll go three-deep but any of the seven entrants could win. Mahaamel didn’t get the best of runs when crossing the wire fifth (but moved up to fourth) in a similar affair last month. With a clean start today and an extra half-furlong to work with, the Irish-bred gelding might be able to tag the speed. My Summer Dream sprints for the first time in his fifth career start and adds blinkers, so the Summer Front gelding has at least a couple of reasons to improve. Prince Magician, the 2-1 morning line favorite, is an 11-race maiden and therefore not one to trust but on form he’s a major player and on pure numbers he’s good enough to win. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: X
Use: 1-Bella Vita; 2-Private Mission; 4-Big Sweep
Forecast: We’ll pass this contentious first-level allowance sprint while including three of the five starters on our rolling exotic ticket. State-bred double stakes winner Big Sweep has been out of action since last August but has trained like she’s fit and ready for M. Glatt and earned speed figures during her juvenile campaign that are better than par for this level. She’s 6/5 on the morning line and based on established form deserves to be. Bella Vita probably is better on turf than dirt, but she’s trained well since raced and could return to winning form after racing above her conditions in a much tougher spot last time out. Private Mission, away since November, won her debut over this local main track so we know she can fire fresh and could easily inherit the role as the controlling speed. She’s a first-time Lasix user and blew out with half mile bullet drill in 47 1/5 seconds (fastest of 68) last week.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:09 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Invictatatus; 5-Erotic
Forecast: Invictatatus, a respectable fourth in a tougher starter’s allowance turf sprint last month, shows up in a restricted (nw-3) $35,000 claimer today and is reunited with “win rider” A. Cedillo. Effective sprinting or routing and on turf or dirt, the A. Marquez-trained gelding should fold into a comfortable pace-stalking trip and then have every chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home. Erotic is just two-for-25 during his career but at both of those victories were earned over the Santa Anita turf course. He’ll be running on late. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Invictatatus.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:41 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-It’s Simple; 3-Sally Stanford; 8-Gianna’s Wild Cat
Forecast: Juvenile fillies sprint five furlongs in the Pick-6 opener with Sally Stanford receiving top billing based on a work tab that points her out as the quickest of the quick. The S. Miyadi-trained filly has done everything right in the a.m. while never being allowed to show her best speed. Today, finally, we’ll see how fast she really is. Gianna’s Wild Cat is another that has shown ability in a.m. preps and while she’s probably not as quick as ‘Stanford the daughter of Ministers Wild Cat acts like she can finish a bit. It’s Simple accomplished most of her preparation at San Luis Rey Downs before recording a couple of gate drills at Santa Anita. She appears to have good early speed and if she breaks running from the rail the daughter of Nyquist could have a say in the matter. These are the three we’ll be including on our rolling exotics with the main emphasis going to Sally Stanford.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:16 PT Grade: B-
Use: 6-Liar Liar; 5-Foothill
Forecast: Liar Liar is a first-off-the-claim play for P. Miller (superior stats with this angle) following a perfect trip score in a $50,00 optional claimer over this course and distance last month. Truthfully, it wasn’t much of a race, but the Irish-bred colt has better outings to go back to, so if he brings his “A” game he should be tough right back. Foothill has steadily rising numbers and most recently outran his 18-1 odds when a troubled third in a state-bred allowance turf miler. In a field without much speed, the son of Vronsky should inherit a good stalking position and with good racing luck this time could make a serious run for it.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:48 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Li’l Grazen; 3-Alice Marble
Forecast: Alice Marble earned a strong speed figure – one that is considerably better than par for this level – when breaking her maiden over this track and distance in her first outing since last October and clearly is a much better type now than then. The daughter of Grazen has trained well since that late April victory so we suspect she’ll run as good if not better today. F. Prat stays aboard and will have her within striking range throughout. Li’l Grazen is slower on numbers than ‘Marble but she’s likely to produce a significant forward move in her first start since being claimed by D. O’Neill for $20,000. The veteran mare has looked sharp in the a.m. for her new connections and with a clean break from the rail should find herself in good ground-saving, stalking position. We’ll include both in rolling exotic play and then press with extra tickets on top keying Alice Marble.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:19 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Equilove; 6-California Kook
Forecast: Equilove was an impressive winner over this turf course in her U.S. debut when beating maidens in March but then lost her best chance with a poor start in a similar first-level allowance grass sprint here the following month. She’s trained very well since, projects to enjoy a good second flight, ground-saving trip, and switches to R. Gonzalez, who rides plenty of live runners for the P. D’Amato barn. At 4-1 on the morning line, she offers good wagering value both in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. California Kook probably is using this sprint race as a prep for more serious route assignments down the road, but she’s certainly faced much tougher competition than she’s seeing today and is reunited with F. Prat, who has won on her in the past. If she’s not too rusty in her first outing since December, the P. Miller-trained daughter of Boisterous could make some serious noise from off the pace.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Fashionably Fast; 5-Brickyard Ride
Forecast: We’re not quite sure what we’ll get from Brickyard Ride today but if the good version shows up he’ll be hard to catch. The likely controlling speed but beaten in his last pair at odds of 3/5 and 1/5, the son of Clubhouse Ride has burned up the track in a.m. preps since that last disappointing run so we could easily see him bounce back with a major performance. If so, he’ll be long gone. Fashionable Fast is clearly the most dangerous of the late-running types and there will be plenty of early heat in here to compliment his style. Always most effective around one turn, the Lucky Pulpit gelding is a four-time winner over the Santa Anita main track and will get the patient ride he requires from regular pilot T. Pereira. Both should be included in rolling exotic play but because he’s more dependable we’ll put Fashionable Fast slightly on top.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:26 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Colosi; 3-Contagion; 9-Cono
Forecast: Contagion was victimized by a lack of pace when a non-threatening second at 30 cents on the dollar in a starter’s allowance $12,500 main track miler last time out but we’ll give him another chance today in a field with plenty of speed signed on. He likes to lag and produce a late kick and with F. Prat staying aboard the P. Miller-trained gelding – a three-time winner over the Santa Anita dirt track – can bounce back. Colosi was a convincing winner over our top pick when they squared off last month and could do it again given his ideal stalking style. Three times victorious in five career outings over the Arcadia main strip, the M. Glatt-trained son of City Zip is fast on figures and in peak form. Cono is the likely pacesetter and will take them as far as he can. The M. McCarthy-trained gelding drops to his lowest level ever and could get very brave if not policed early.
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