Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Santa Anita
Thursday, October 10, 2019
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Today’s Day Makers: View Video
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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 7-My S V R; 9-Ancona
Forecast: Ancona plummets from maiden special weight to a bottom-rung maiden claimer so this is clearly the easiest chance she’s had, but the daughter of Gervinho will be trying dirt for the first time and must leave from the disadvantageous outside post, so she’s hardly a slam dunk. The C. Gaines-trained filly has been working steadily since her last outing in mid-August and on numbers is clearly superior to the opposition, but that’s assuming she can transfer her grass form to the main track. My S V R has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern for A. Lerner and projects to be the controlling speed. If she’s ever going to be able to stay a mile, it will be in her first try, and in a lackluster lineup she might clear without pressure and get very brave on the front end. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but not with a great deal of confidence, so if you find the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.
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RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-I Belong to Becky; 2-Verynsky
Forecast: The main contention is this abbreviated sprint for $16,000 claiming 3-year-olds is drawn inside. I Belong to Becky removes blinkers for the first time – love that angle – and takes a realistic class drop to her lowest level ever while switching to the barn’s go-to rider, J. Talamo. If she leaves cleanly from the rail, the M. Glatt-trained filly should be capable of returning to winning form. Her only career win was accomplished over this main track just over a year ago, so she’s due. Verynsky, first off the claim for R. Hess, Jr. (20% with this angle), is a fit on speed figures and should be pressing or prompting the pace throughout. She makes a favorable jockey switch to A. Cedillo, and though beaten at a short price vs. softer at Los Alamitos last time out the daughter of Vronsky has back form that if repeated will make her dangerous. Slight preference on top goes to I Belong to Becky but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Billy K; 2-Text Dont Call
Forecast: Text Dont Call drops to the maiden $30,000 level after chasing straight maidens and stakes foes in her first five career starts. The D. O’Neill-trained filly is unproven on dirt but if she can come close to her grass figures in this modest spot the daughter of Wicked Strong should be hard to deny. She switches to A. Cedillo and projects to enjoy a soft pace-stalking trip. Billy K, runner-up in a similar affair at Los Alamitos last month, should be forwardly placed from the rail and have every chance based on her numbers. In a race in which the contention is scarce, we’ll try to survive and advance in rolling exotic play using just these two.
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RACE 4: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Lighthouse; 6-Connections
Forecast: This maiden special weight sprint on turf for juveniles came up surprisingly light, leaving the way for the debuting Lighthouse to beat the boys and score at first asking. A $375,000 OBS April sale purchase, the daughter of Mizzen Mast has trained reasonably well for S. Callaghan (powerful with debut runners) and with F. Prat taking the mount she’s certain to take plenty of play. Connections, a $260,000 yearling purchase by Twirling Candy, has done all of his preparatory work at Los Alamitos and has recorded some decent clockings for J. Sadler (respectable 17% with first-timers). He’s worth including somewhere on a ticket or two.
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RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Riding With Dino; 5-Mainframe Judy; 8-Drippin Sauce
Forecast: This is a fairly competitive starter optional claiming sprint for 2-year-olds, and while we strongly prefer Drippin Sauce on top we’ll including two others in our rolling exotics for protection. ‘Sauce returns to the claiming ranks for the first time since his maiden win and vans down down from his home base at Golden Gate Fields, where his recent works indicate he is fit and ready. From the high-percentage J. Wong barn, the son of Vronsky earned a strong figure with a facile score two run back at Del Mar in a race that beats this group if repeated. He’ll also get a break in the weights with the switch to talented bug boy J. Velez (one of this stable’s favorite jockeys) and will be making his first start since being gelded. It all adds up to a major effort at 3-1 on the morning line. Riding With Dino, runner-up as the favorite in a similar spot last month at Del Mar, had the form franked when the winner (El Tigre Terrible) came back to spring an upset in a grass stakes last weekend that earned him a berth to the BC Juvenile Turf. The B. Hess, Jr. trained colt should be on or near the lead throughout. Mainframe Judy was a voided claim for $40,000 when winning at Del Mar last month, but trainer P. Miller is protecting him, so we assume the gelding is in good shape. He’s strikes us as being a bit better than his morning line of 8-1 would indicate.
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RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Flor de La Mar; 5-Mo See Cal
Forecast: Mo See Cal removes blinkers, switches to A. Cedillo, and stretches out again to what might very well be her preferred trip. The P. Miller-trained filly can be tough on the front end or from a stalking position, so however the race shape develops this daughter of Uncle Mo shouldn’t be bothered. Flor de La Mar won a listed stakes at Los Alamitos last month in good style while earning a career top speed figure. Though bred to run long, the daughter of Tiznow so far in her six race career has been far more effective around one turn, but under these conditions in a small field the B. Baffert-trained filly must be considered a major player. We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Mo See Cal on top.
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RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Our Romance; 7-Angel’s Advocate
Forecast: Angel’s Advocate is 12-1 on the morning line and we suspect will outrun those odds and maybe even do more than just that. Off slowly and then finishing evenly when a distant fourth in her debut sprinting at Del Mar last month, the D. Blacker-trained filly stretches out to a distance she should handle and a surface she should love, so we’re expecting the daughter of Vronsky to step forward in a big way. Sher might actually be the controlling speed. Our Romance seems to be improving for P. D’Amato and a recent sharp five furlong workout over the training track caught the eye. Third in a similar spot at 18-1 at Del Mar in August, the daughter of Archarcharch will likely continue her improving pattern today, and from her good inside number two post position should draft into a comfortable ground-saving, pace-stalking position and have every chance. These are the the two we’ll be focusing on in rolling exotic play; based on price Angel’s Advocate is worth pressing with in the straight pool.
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