Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Santa Anita
Monday, October 14, 2019
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Today’s Day Makers: View video
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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Morning Cynn; 4-Bellazano
Forecast: Morning Cynn was beaten way off in a very hot, productive race at Los Alamitos, but against this much softer group the lightly-raced daughter of Paynter should be very competitive. A repeat of her race-before-last, a solid runner-up in a maiden special weight sprint at Golden Gate Fields, will beat this field based speed figures, and a recent bullet drill at San Luis Rey Downs for the high-percentage D. O’Neill barn gives strong indication that she’s set to fire her best shot. Bellazano switches to A. Cedillo and has back numbers that put her in the hunt. A distant runner-up in a similar affair at Los Alamitos last month charts well here so we’ll include her on the ticket as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 2: Post 12:59 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Tappin Honor; 3-Champagne’s On Ice
Forecast: The J. Wong shippers from Golden Gate Fields have underperformed since the beginning of summer, so while Champagne’s On Ice looks fairly strong on paper in this maiden claiming sprint for 2-year-olds he, along with runners from this normally high percentage barn, can’t be considered trustworthy. Though the son of Soldat finished a fairly promising third in his debut up north last month, his stable mate, who was second in that same race, came down here last week as the favorite and was soundly beaten. We’ll use the gelding in our rolling exotics but at 8/5 on the morning line with a three percent jockey taking the call, he’s no single. Tappin Honor hasn’t done anything particularly noteworthy in the morning, though a bullet three furlong gate drill late last month indicates he has at least some ability. A little will go a long way in this shallow affair, so we’ll toss in the fresh face and hope that he breaks with his field from the rail. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 3: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Restless Rambler; 5-Awesome Heights
Forecast: This six runner $40,000 claiming turf sprint has two main players and both should be used in rolling exotic play. Restless Rambler has 17 career victories on his resume but always has been most effective on dirt. He’s clearly the quickest of the quick over a course that favors speed, so even though this isn’t his preferred surface the P. Miller-trained gelding should be hard to catch under bug boy J. Velez, who was aboard when this son of Ghostzapper daylighted a starter’s allowance field at Los Alamitos last month. Awesome Heights, a three-time grass winner at Santa Anita, should draft into a stalking position outside and have every chance to inherit the lead if ‘Rambler starts to fade. A bullet half mile recent workout over the training track since raced shows he’s holding his edge.
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RACE 4: Post 2:05 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Mucho Macho Woman
Forecast: Mucho Macho Woman was given a bit of a run in her debut sprinting on grass at Del Mar last month and with that effort behind her the R. Ellis-trained filly should get serious today. Bred for dirt and likely to improve big time with the surface switch, the homebred filly was impressive in a recent workout to indicate she’s fit and ready to show her best stuff. J. Talamo stays aboard and, assuming ‘Woman leaves with her field this time, should have her within striking range throughout. At 4-1 on the morning line we’ll make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post 2:38 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Zipper Mischief; 5-Three Ay Em
Forecast: Zipper Mischief is unproven around two turns but there’s no reason he shouldn’t be able to handle the trip. The lightly-raced son of Into Mischief has rising speed figures and a healthy recent work tab for a barn that has excellent stats in a limit sample with stretch-out plays. A sharp sprint winner two runs back in his comeback and then an unlucky runner-up in a hot dash at this level in his next outing, the B. Heap-trained colt seems likely to produce another forward move and resume his winning ways. Three Ay Em is worth including on a ticket or two as a backup. In the money in his last three, the son of New Year’s Day might get brave if permitted an easy early lead and has consistent speed figures that are par for this level.
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RACE 6: Post 3:08 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Baby Gronk; 6-Truck Salesman
Forecast: Truck Salesman is strictly the one to beat in this first-level state-bred allowance sprint. The D. O’Neill-trained gelding continues to impress in the a.m. and has numbers that make him more than capable of handling this task, especially at the projected pace flow. He’s probably a tad quicker than his main pace adversary Baby Gronk and may never look back if he can shake loose early. Baby Gronk has never been worse that second in four career outings over the Santa Anita main track and the W. Spawr-trained gelding seems well-spotted for another tough, consistent effort. His recent speed figures are strong, he switches to one of the barn’s go-to riders (T. Pereira) and he should be within striking range throughout. Preference on top goes to Truck Salesman but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 7: Post 3:40 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Storming Lady; 2-Stylishly
Forecast: Stylishly has won her last pair in visually pleasing fashion, but if you believe her moderate speed figures she’ll be hard pressed to stretch her streak to three in this second-level allowance grass dash for fillies and mares. The daughter of Speighstown has an ideal stalking style for this course and if she’s better than her numbers indicate – and we believe she is – the S. Callaghan-trained can pull off a mild surprise at 6-1 on the morning line. Storming Lady is a versatile sort than can win on the lead or from well off the pace, so V. Espinoza can play it by ear depending upon how the A. Marquez-trained filly breaks from the rail. In the money in four of five career starts over the local lawn, the daughter of Flat Out earned a career top number when she was the fourth nose on the wire in a good Kentucky Downs grass affair last month. Due to price considerations, Stylishly gets the nod on top but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 8: Post 4:13 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Big Barrel; 4-Buck Duane
Forecast: Big Barrel earned a career top speed figure when easily breaking his maiden over this main track during the summer meeting but failed to duplicate that effort in subsequent outings at Del Mar and Los Alamitos. The son of Surf Cat drops to his lowest level ever, retains good bug boy J. Velez, and may be capable of returning to his best form now that he’s back at Santa Anita. The extended sprint trip – which is likely to produce a soft, comfortable pace flow, should bring out his best, as well. Buck Duane, nosed out in his last pair, should fire a similar shot, though his record over the Santa Anita main track – zero for 11 – is a major cause for concern. On numbers he’s a fit but his lack of a winning punch is apparent. Preference on top goes to Big Barrel and he’ll get most of our play in the rolling exotics.
