Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Grandcourse Guy; 5-Dixie Two Stents
Forecast: Grandcourse Guy and Dixie Two Stents finished three-four in a tougher straight maiden dirt sprint at Del Mar and they meet again on the drop to the maiden $50,000 level while switching to grass. ‘Guy is the quicker of the two but ‘Stents should be running on late. They’re hard to separate so both should be included in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to the speedier Grandcourse Guy.
Notable Workouts:
Dixie’s Two Stents (October 16, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.2h TT). Grade: B
Ridden through the lane and finished strongly in solo training track drill for D. O’Neill, final three furlongs in :12.1 and :35.1, very sharp approaching the wire. Appears on edge for a big effort, most effective as a late-running sprinter.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Vegan; 5-Flat Out Joy
Forecast: Flat Out Joy returns to her claim level and looks well-spotted to regain her winning form in this six-runner restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. In the money in seven of eight career outings over the Santa Anita main track, the S. McCarthy-trained mare projects to enjoy the pace-stalking trip that she prefers, and at 4-1 on the morning line she’ll offer a bit of value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. Vegan also should be included on your ticket. We like the blinkers off angle and the switch to F. Prat, so the M. Glatt-trained filly may be capable of improving enough to win her first race since July of 2019. On pure numbers she’s a good fit in this league and always has done her best work over the local dirt surface.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 3: Post: 2:01 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-First Premio; 6-Southern Horse
Forecast: In a race that should be slowly run early, Southern Horse projects to be comfortably placed on or near the lead throughout in this turf miler for $40,000 older claimers. The J. Sadler-trained veteram is winless in four starts since being imported from Ireland, but his numbers are strong, and the race flow should be in his favor. With the switch to F. Prat he appears the one to beat. First Premio returns to his proper claiming level and rates a big look with a repeat of his sharp runner-up effort vs. similar two races back. The veteran gelding has a touch of past class and can beat this type of field with his best effort.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B-
Single: 2-Smilin Evie
Forecast: The known element isn’t much so let’s take a stand with a fresh face. Smilin Evie looked decent in a recent gate drill while proving best of a three-horse team without undue pressure, so the daughter of Tom’s Tribute should be fit enough for a winning effort in this soft maiden special weight sprint for Cal-bred juvenile fillies. The R. Baltas-trained filly attracts F. Prat, so at 3-1 on the morning line she may offer decent value both in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
Notable Workouts
Smilin Evie (October 17, Santa Anita, 4f, :48hg). Grade: B-
Was best inside in a team gate drill with Vulin (same time) and Candy for Caramel (4f, :48.4hg), moderate coaxing most of the way but finishing with something left following splits of :24.1, :35.4 and :48 flat. Has a good way of going and seems fit enough.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 5: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-Fantasy Heat
Forecast: Fantasy Heat shows strong and consistent form vs. tougher foes, including a win in a $62,500 affair at Del Mar in mid-August. She shows up in a $40,000 seller today following a nine week layoff and that’s not a healthy pattern, but If she fires her best shot she’ll beat this field, though that may be a big “if.” The M. Glatt-trained mare is listed at 9/5 on the morning line and probably will go lower. You can use her as a rolling exotic single and hope that she has one good left or better yet just pass the race.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 6: Post: 3:37 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Ascot Storm; 2-Joe Don Looney
Forecast: Ascot Storm crushed a $20,000 field in gate-to-wire fashion at Del Mar last month while earning a career top speed figure, and today is double-jumped to the $32,000 level off a M. Glatt claim while facing a field restricted to 3-year-olds. If he breaks running from the rail, the Shackleford gelding projects to control this race from start to finish. The switch to F. Prat doesn’t hurt, either. Joe Don Looney isn’t as fast on speed figures as our top pick but he’s finished in the money in four of his last five starts and could be a strong threat if ‘Storm fails to fire his best shot.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Laker Mamba; 6-Big Coupe
Forecast: Big Coupe wired a maiden field at Del Mar last month while continuing his improving pattern, and in a race without much speed the L. Powell-trained gelding projects to employ front-running tactics while seeking a repeat score in this starter optional claimer over a mile on grass. Laker Mamba is a fit on figures and represents a legitimate late threat. If he can get some help up front, the M. Casse-trained gelding should be heard from in the final furlong. We’ll prefer Big Coupe on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 8: Post: 4:40 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Eda; 2-Lady T
Forecast: Eda is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite in this year’s renewal of the Anoakia S. for juvenile fillies, and though she was far back in the Del Mar Debutante-G1 in her last start a repeat of her narrow defeat in the Sorrento S.-G2 at Del Mar two races back would be more than good enough to handle this task. She picks up F. Prat and should be within range throughout from her rail post. We’ll also toss in Lady T. , beaten a nose in her only outing last month at Del Mar in a good maiden special weight sprint. Young runners from the J. Shirreffs stable usually improve with experience so we’re expecting this daughter of Into Mischief to produce a significant forward move, one that could make her a serious threat. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
Notable Workouts:
Eda (October 18, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2h). Grade: B
Caught her from the half mile pole to the wire with splits of :23.3 and :48.2, never asked and finishing with good energy. Got burned up in a speed duel in the Del Mar Debutante and faltered but is much better than that race shows. Might prefer to be held up a bit.
View Workout Video
Lady T (October 18, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.3h). Grade: B-
Hard held throughout while showing a slight tendency to get out, final half mile in :11.4, :24.1 and :49.1 on our watches. Has plenty of talent and should improve with experience. Nice prospect by Into Mischief.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 9: Post: 5:12 PT Grade: B
Use: 7-Facetious; 9-Wall Street Trader; 10-Dancing Rinca
Forecast: Dancing Rinca flashed good speed before understandably weakening in the hottest, fastest maiden sprint for 2-year-olds this year (a race taken by subsequent Grade-1 winner Corniche) and today faces a considerably easier assignment in this six furlong grass sprint. The son of Practical Joke finished fifth, beaten more than 11 lengths, but still earned a strong speed figure in the process. Maidens from the P. Eurton barn usually step forward in their second starts and we suspect this colt will as well. Facetious was off slowly and then closed with courage to wind up a respectable fourth (beaten less than three lengths) in his debut on turf last month and certainly should appreciate today’s extra furlong. If he can leave with his field, the M. Puype-trained son of Distorted Humor may have a big say in the outcome. Wall Street Trader is a first-timer by Vancouver with a grass pedigree and a decent series of drills for S. Callaghan. With F. Prat taking the call, this $155,000 yearling purchase has a right to be competitive and is worth using somewhere on your ticket.
Notable Workouts:
Facetious (October 18, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3h TT). Grade: B
A tad late changing leads but was never really asked and finished strongly, final quarter mile in :23.2. Definitely has room for improvement and development.
View Workout Video
Wall Street Trader (October 17, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2hg). Grade: B-
Even but slightly second best from gate outside Micro Share (5f, 1:01.1hg) for S. Callaghan, splits of :36.2 and :48.3 on our watches, never asked in easy half mile spin. Has some ability and probably will do his best on grass based on peditree. Somewhat intriguing.
View Workout Video
Dancing Rinca (October 3, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4h TT). Grade: B+
Asked a bit through the lane and responded nicely while best over Me B Bubba T (5f, 1:00h TT), breaking off about a length behind and then finishing a half-length in front at the wire, splits of :24 flat, :35.4 and :59.4 on our watches, quite nice. Exits a monster race and seems sure to improve. Seems likely to improve in his second start, as most maidens do from this stable.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
