Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Tony Ann; 6-Annaghlasa
Forecast: Tony Ann encountered a bit of trouble when forced to alter course in mid-stretch and wound up a close third in a similar maiden turf sprint for fillies and mares at Del Mar in late August, an effort that earns her the role as the short-priced (6/5 ML) choice in today’s opener. Truthfully, the running line flatters her but unless her European import stable mate is at least better than average for this level (and we think she is), the daughter of Cairo Prince probably graduates at a short price. Annaghlasa gives the barn a powerful one-two punch and a legitimate chance – based strictly on her only start overseas – to spring a mild surprise at 4-1 on the morning line. A respectable fourth of 16 at Gowran Park in early May in a race in which she lacked a clear path when full of run midway, the 3-year-old Irish-bred filly stayed on reasonably well and was subsequently imported. She has trained quite well and should be plenty fit to fire a big shot in her U.S. debut. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics but reserve the main punch for the better-priced Annaghlasa.
Notable Workouts:
2-Tony Ann (October 10, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.3h TT). Grade: B-
In blinkers, broke off several lengths in front of She’s So Nice (5f, 1:02h TT) and Gold Dragon Queen (5f, 1:02.1h TT) and received the slowest of the three final times but actually worked fine while crossing the wire first along the rail and doing so without undue pressure, splits of :37.4 and 1:02.3, plenty left late. In good shape has room for further development.
View Workout Video
6-Annaghlasa (October 11, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3h TT). Grade: B
In company inside Gold Phoenix (same time) in training track drill for D’Amato, proving slightly best without being asked, final half mile in :23.4 and :48.4, solid drill. Ran well in only outing last spring in Ireland and appears to have acclimated well. Seems fit, should be live vs. older maidens in her first local appearance.
View Workout Video
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RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B-
Single: 3-Horse Greedy
Forecast: Let’s take a stand in this $10,000 claiming sprint for older horses while trying to beat the first two morning line choices. Alleva (9/5) drops to the bottom after a disappointing run in a starter’s allowance sprint at Los Alamitos last month, but a repeat of his restricted (nw-3) $20,000 win two races back – an effort that produced a career top speed figure – would make him the one to beat. However, the D. O’Neill-trained gelding was able to quickly establish the pace in that race and today he’ll have to cope with Bibleman (2-1), who is drawn outside and is the quicker of the two, though not particular generous under pressure, himself. The way we see it, the race could easily set up nicely for Horse Greedy (7/2), the ex-classer who went stale in the spring and was stopped on. The P. Miller-trained gelding returns showing a bullet six furlong drill at San Luis Rey Downs earlier this month and goes for a stable that has strong stats with layoff runners. The eight-year-old gelding has run well off the bench in the past and does his best work from off the pace, so if the speed caves in, he’ll be in the right spot to produce the last run.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: X
Single: 3-Picota
Forecast: Picota performed admirably when third in his U.S. debut in the Zuma Beach S. over this course and distance earlier this month and anything close that effort in this maiden event should be more than good enough. In that race the P. D’Amato-trained colt steadied in traffic early, found room to rally through the lane and finished with interest before galloping out nicely. A bullet three furlong blowout (:36 4/5) over the training track since that race indicates he came out of the race in good order and is ready to step forward. At 6/5 on the morning line the English-bred colt is a logical, short-priced rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: C+
Use: 4-Yellow Dress; 5-Sweet Soulmate; 7-Righteously
Forecast: Here’s a toughie, a $25,000 claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-old fillies. Sweet Soulmate has rising speed figures and projects as the best of the speed types. She’s won three out of seven career starts – all in gate-to-wire fashion – and if she can make the lead over this speed-favoring track the daughter of Twirling Candy might be able to stick it out. Righteously returns to her proper level and may regain her best form after not being quite up to first-level allowance competition at Los Alamitos in her last two outings. She might be most effective with a patient ride and given that there’s other speed in the field waiting tactics probably should be employed. Yellow Dress, away a couple of months but a solid runner-up at this level last time out at Del Mar, should be running on late and rates a good look if a pace meltdown materializes. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.
Notable Workouts:
5-Sweet Soulmate (October 9, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.2h). Grade: B-
Steady work without much pressure, splits of :24.3, :36.3 and 1:01.2, solid drill for this level of filly. Has some improvement in her and looks ready for good effort.
View Workout Video
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RACE 5: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Ingest; 3-Crossword; 9-Ka’nah
ForecastThis grass grab bag for restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming older sprinters looks chaotic with nothing to trust, and no result would be surprising. We’ll try to survive going three-deep but the only safe way to advance is to “buy” the race. Ka’nah was awful at 40 cents on the dollar eight days ago and wound up sixth of seven beaten more than eight lengths, but new trainer D. O’Neill wheels him back quickly and moves him to grass, so there’s a reasonable possibility that the son of Gio Ponti will bounce back with a good effort. The veteran gelding has run well over the local lawn in the past, is assured clear sailing from his outside draw, switches to J. Hernandez, and projects to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip in a race without much early speed signed on. O’Neill’s other entrant, Ingest, drops to his lowest level ever and may be able to secure the role as the controlling speed. Given that type of trip over a course he’s won on in the past, the son of Square Eddie could get brave. Crossword is a fit on speed figures but has never had any success on this grass course. The sharp drop in class certainly should help and his runner-up effort two runs back sprinting on turf at Del Mar gives him something of a look.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:48 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Burnin Turf; 5-Big Story; 6-Betito
Forecast: Yet another challenging affair, this one for California-bred first-level allowance optional claimers over a mile on the main track. Betito, away for more than two months following a pair of poor performances, could easily snap back over his favorite dirt surface. He’s proven to be a need-the-lead type and probably will be fully committed to the front-end leaving the gate, a logical strategy in a race in which the closers are highly suspect. The son of Heat Shield exits a pair of races in open company and should greatly appreciate this return to the state-bred ranks. Burnin Turf shows a significant edge in the speed figure department, but all five of his career outings have come on turf and there’s no real assurance, at least based on pedigree, that those efforts will be duplicated on dirt. The D. Blacker-trained gelding projects to be close up throughout and have every chance, but his lack of proven form on dirt makes him suspect. Blacker’s other starter, Big Story, isn’t as fast on numbers as Burnin Turf but at least we know he can handle the Santa Anita main track. Freshened since mid-August, the son of Mr. Big stretches out again and seems likely to be forwardly placed throughout. A maiden seven furlong win two runs back was reasonably decent and with just six career starts he should still have plenty of room for improvement.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:19 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-North County Boy; 6-Unbridled Ethos; 7-Whooping Jay
Forecast: Here’s a treat, a rare race carded for the downhill turf course featuring state-bred older sprinters in the California Flag Handicap. Whooping Jay, first off an $80,000 claim by M. Glatt, is a tough and genuine grass sprinter returning in two weeks following a troubled trip sprinting on the flat course when third after lacking room on the turn and then getting clear too late. The son of Square Eddie can be tough on the front end or rallying from mid-pack so new trainer J. Brave can assess the pace flow and choose his strategy. North County Guy always is tough to beat, whether he’s sprinting, routing, or marathoning. The R. Baltas-trained gelding looked quite good winning his last start two-turning at Del Mar with a powerful figure, one that makes him the one to fear most despite this shortening in trip. U. Rispoli will have him settled early and then produce him when the time is right. Unbridled Ethos was a late scratch out of an allowance race here on Oct. 2 and didn’t work back until Oct. 10, so his condition is (or was) a question. But a troubled third (beaten a length) behind our top pick in a race in late August at Del Mar makes him a contender on paper, so we’ll include the J. Mullins-trained gelding on a ticket, at least as a back-up or a saver.
Notable Workouts:
6-Unbridled Ethos (September 26, 5f, 1:00.1h TT). Grade: B
Breezing along in easy fashion, final three furlongs in :12 flat and :36.2 in very nice training track drill. Appears on edge.
View Workout Video
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RACE 8: Post: 4:40 PT Grade: B-
Use: 6-Scream and Shout; 9-Lunatic
Forecast: The P. Miller barn is strong with layoffs, which is why we’re giving Lunatic top billing in this bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for older fillies and mares. Off the track since February but with a healthy recent series of drills at San Luis Rey Downs, the class dropping daughter of Mshawish removes blinkers, gets a break in the weights with the switch to 7-lb. bug rider D. Herrera, and has back numbers that are good enough to win this modest affair. Scream and Shout probably is the quickest in the field and if she can shake loose early without pressure the T. Yakteen-trained 4-year-old could prove troublesome. She’s a bit suspect in the lane (they all are in here) but over a track that promotes her style the daughter of Blame could get brave. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to Lunatic.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:12 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Another Eddie; 5-September Secret; 6-Miss Carousel; 10-Greg’s Diva
Forecast: The Sunday nightcap is a wide-open turf sprint for entry-level allowance fillies and mares that offers several price possibilities. In her first outing since the previous November, September Secret had a nightmarish trip in a similar affair at Del Mar last month and seems certain to run better today with good racing luck. The P. Miller-trained filly was in heavy traffic down the backstretch, was shuffled back and steadied to lose her position, t hen raced in traffic in the upper stretch before finding room inside and coming home strongly to finish sixth, beaten five lengths, and then galloping out in front around the clubhouse. We’re expecting she’ll be fitter and sharper today, so at 6-1 on the morning line daughter of Grazen offers a reasonable gamble. Also listed at 6-1 is Miss Carousel, who was no factor in an all-weather sprint up north last time out but could easily return to top form with return to grass. Most effective as a late-running sprinter, the E. Freedman-trained filly was a good winner of two turf sprints at Del Mar during the summer meeting and is reunited with “win rider” G. Franco. Another Eddie (15-1) is another long shot that might outrun her price. With two wins and a second in three career starts over the Santa Anita turf course, the B. Cecil-trained sophomore has a number back in the spring that makes her dangerous and with some help up front could be heard from late. Greg’s Diva is the quickest in the field and will take them as far as she can. She had a right to need her last outing (her first since November) when worn down late but with the break in the weighs with the switch to bug girl J. Pyfer the daughter of Shackleford may prove an elusive target.
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