Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Riviera Champ; 8-State of the Union; 10-Roy C
Forecast: Maiden claiming $50,000) juveniles compete over a mile on grass in the Sunday opener. This is an exercise in educational guessing, as most of the these either haven’t run long, haven’t run on grass, or haven’t run at all. Roy C has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern combined with the first-time-for-a-tag angle while also making the monumental jockey change to F. Prat. If the son of More Than Ready can run, this would be a good place to show it. The P. Miller-trained gelding has okay numbers and a steady, even style of running so let’s assume he’ll enjoy today’s distance. Riviera Champ has form that looks the same as our top pick. The son of Nyquist shows two sprints vs. straight maidens and today tries two-turns with a class drop that makes him a major contender. The M. McCarthy-trained ridgeling projects to be forward placed, perhaps even on the lead. Price players should consider tossing in State of the Union at 12-1 on the morning line. Bred to run long (Union Rags) and with rising speed figures through three previous starts, the first-time gelding shows a recent sharp half mile work (:47 2/5, second fastest of 66) that signals possible improvement. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but if you may decide the race requires additional coverage.
Notable Workouts:
Roy C (October 16, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.3h TT). Grade: B-
Broke off two lengths in front of Optimistic Valor (5f, 1:02.1h TT) and finished head-and-head at the wire without really being asked, splits of :38 flat and 1:02.3, moderate final time but a decent work, nonetheless. Should be able to handle a distance of ground based on this drill.
View Workout Video
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: X
Single: 3-California Street
Forecast: Six furlongs might not be his preferred distance but in his present form this shorter trip probably won’t matter to California Street. He’s being protected in his first-off-the-claim for P. Miller (a powerful 26% with this angle) after earning a stakes-quality speed figure when winning by eight and one-half lengths vs. $20,000 sellers here earlier this month. The concern is his lack of tactical speed, but anything close to his last race, or even the one before that should be more than good enough as the 4/5 morning line favorite. In a race that offers little wagering value, you can use him as a short-priced rolling exotic single or better yet simply pass the race.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:01 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Ottawa Fire; 7-Secret Club
Forecast: We’ll double the third race, a 10-furlong first level allowance turf affair that projects to be run at a crawl for at least the opening half mile. Secret Club has enough tactical speed to find himself in a good stalking position or perhaps even on the front end if his connections so choose. The son of Clubhouse Ride earned a career top speed figure when a closing third in a hot turf miler earlier this month, and while he’s never been a mile and one-quarter there’s no reason he won’t handle this longer distance. F. Prat stays aboard for P. Miller – they’re a whopping 34% as a team – and with two previous wins over the local lawn he seems likely to leave at a shorter price than his morning line of 5/2. As a back-up or a saver, you may want to toss in Ottawa Fire. He’ll be comfortably placed from his good inside draw just off whatever speed might materialize and then have ever chance to offer a threat from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:41 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Invictatatus; 2-Mongolian Wind
Forecast: Invictatatus scored gamely with a good speed figure when facing $16,000 foes at Los Alamitos last month and a similar effort today on the two-level raise will make him dangerous right back. From his rail post the son of Strong Mandate projects to be on the lead or no worse than in a second flight, stalking position, and with a sharp gate-to-wire win on his resume last May the A. Marquez-trained gelding seems certain to be a major player. Mongolian Wind has low percentage connections and is winless in five starts over the Santa Anita main track but he’s the fastest in the race based on speed figures, has a touch of back class, and has run decently in the past off a layoff. He’s a strong threat at this $25,000 claiming level with anything close to his best race. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to Invictatatus
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RACE 5: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: B
Use: 6-Big Summer; 7-Feeling Grazeful
Forecast: Big Summer has hit the board in all four career starts, but she’s also been a beaten choice in her last three, so it may be a bit difficult to have full trust in the daughter of Mr. Big even though that on pure numbers she’s a stick out in this extended turf sprint for older state-bred maiden fillies and mares. Feeling Grazeful may be the one to fear most. Second in both of her career starts but away since early June, the daughter of Grazen tries grass for the first time (bred for it) and goes for a barn that has strong stats with layoff runners. The W. Spawr-trained filly is listed at a generous 6-1 on the morning line and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play at anywhere near that price.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:37 PT Grade: X
Single: 1-Big Sweep
Forecast: Big Sweep is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite in this first-level allowance sprint for fillies and mares and on paper looks it, though she has failed as the favorite in the last two outings that she left as the public choice. Still, in this six runner field, the daughter of Mr. Big looks clearly best, having a decided edge in speed figures, so if she leaves cleanly from the rail the M. Glatt-trained filly should have no excuses. Still, there is no real wagering value to be found, so you can pass the race while using her as a rolling exotic single or better yet simply sit it out entirely.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: X
Single: 1-Neptune’s Storm
Forecast: Neptune’s Storm was out of his element in the 10-furlong John Henry Turf Cup-G2 earlier this month but today returns to his favorite distance (a flat mile) while landing the good inside draw so we’re expecting the P. Miller-trained son of Stormy Atlantic to regain his winning edge. Successful four times over the Santa Anita turf course and a winner on five occasions at this one mile trip, he’s reunited with “win rider” F. Prat and should draft into a comfortable pace-prompting position (stalking the likely leader Lambeau) and then have every chance when the pressure is turned on to exert his superiority. However, at 6/5 on the morning line there’s not much we can do other than to use him as a short-priced rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Divine Armor; 3-Synthesis
Forecast: Synthesis looks very much like the controlling speed in this first-level allowance main track middle distance affair and given that type of trip the J. Mullins-trained gelding should be pretty tough to catch. A three-time winner over the local main track, the son of First Samurai missed by a head in a starter’s allowance affair at Los Alamitos last time out and after a six week freshening should return to his best form under conditions that are made to order. Divine Armor had the misfortune of chasing a couple of monsters in his last two starts (Laurel River, Ginobili) and was beaten 11 lengths in both starts, though at least hitting the board. This group should be within his range, so we’re expecting the J. Sadler-trained son of Include to be the most dangerous of the late-runners. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with the main punch going to Synthesis.
Notable Workouts:
Divine Armor (October 10, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.1h). Grade: B+
Inside Edgeway (same time) for J. Sadler and stayed with that classy sprinting filly throughout in a sharp style with splits of :35.1 and :59.2. Excellent drill considering the competition and appears primed for a major effort vs. first-level allowance foes.
View Workout Video
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RACE 9: Post: 5:12 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Shoppingforpharoah; 8-Tonito’s; 12-Urban
Forecast: Urban finished a respectable fourth in the one mile Juvenile Fillies Turf S. at Del Mar last month, rallying strongly from last to be beaten just two lengths. A similar effort today may be good enough against this maiden field, especially with the switch to F. Prat, though her extreme outside post position in this 12-runner field and her lack of gate speed at this sprint trip makes her task a challenging one. Tonito’s has done some good work in the a.m. for D. O’Neill and acts like a filly with a nice late kick. The daughter of Blame probably won’t show her best stuff until sent long but she could be good enough to make some noise sprinting from off the pace in her debut. Shoppingforpharoah is bred for grass (American Pharoah) and shows a steady series of workouts leading up to her debut. She’s an “X” factor worth including on your ticket at 6-1 on the morning line.
Notable Workouts:
Tonito’s (October 9, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: B
Broke off about three lengths behind Lonely On Top (5f, 1:01h) and rallied nicely through the lane under light coaxing only to finish head-and-head at the wire, splits of :35.2 and 1:00.2 on our watches, solid drill for D. O’Neill. Has some run, might be route type.
View Workout Video
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