Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Grit and Curiosity; 4-Fight On
Forecast: The Friday opener is a $40,000 claiming turf sprint for older horses that offers two main contenders. Grit and Curiosity is a first-off-the-claim play for a stable that has superior stats with this angle, and after being freshened since late August the J. Mullins-trained gelding should be primed for a major over a course he’s run well over in the past. With the switch to one of the barn’s “go to” riders (T. Pereira), the son of Macho Uno projects to settle behind the leaders and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Fight On has been off his best form of late but this class drop from the first-level allowance optional claiming ranks gives him a strong reason to improve. The M. Maker-trained son of Into Mischief is a strong fit on speed figures and with some help up front projects as the most dangerous of the deep closing types. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with the edge on top to Grit and Curiosity.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-Bronn; 4-Scary Fast Smile; 5-Herd Immunity
Forecast: This restricted (nw-3) starter’s allowance main track sprint drew just five entrants. We’ll pass the race and go-three deep in our rolling exotics. Herd Immunity lost his best chance at the tart in a $50,000 claimer earlier this month and did well to stay on through the lane to secure second money while earning a career top speed figure. From his cozy outside draw and with a clean start the P. Aguirre-trained gelding projects to enjoy a soft stalking trip and have every chance to regain his winning form. Scary Fast Smile, freshened since mid-August, looks like the potential controlling speed and given that type of trip the M. Glatt-trained gelding could be hard to catch. He’s quite fast enough on speed figures to wire the field off his best effort and he’s never been off the board with two wins in five career starts over the local main track. Recent sharp works give strong indication that he’s spot on for a top effort. Bronn has been away since last December and returns protected in a sign of confidence. The B. Baffert-trained colt is a first-time gelding with a strong recent work tab and could be a better type this time around.
Notable Workouts:
Bronn (October 22, 6f, Santa Anita, 1:12.2h). Grade: B
Strong solo main track drill for the B. Baffert-trained gelding, mostly on his own while coming from the half mile pole to the 7/8ths pole with splits of :23.3, :48 flat and 1:00.1 on our watches, mild coaxing only in the final stages. Looks a bit better now than last year, has been away since December but seems plenty fit and has starter’s allowance conditions.
View Workout Video
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RACE 3: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-No Hang Charlie; 5-Primer Dimer
Forecast: No Hang Charlie finished far back in is debut sprinting on the main track at Del Mar in early August vs. tougher foes but over a distance of ground today the R. Baltas-trained sophomore seems very likely to produce a significant forward move in this bottom-rung maiden claimer for older horses. K. Frey stays aboard, and with a sharp series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs for a clever outfit the son of Oxbow likely will employ gate-to-wire tactics. Primer Dimer, a non-threatening fifth in a similar affair at Del Mar last month, removes blinkers, regains G. Franco, and is another that is quite likely to improve a bunch after breaking slowly and racing wide in his debut. If the son of Haynesfield can run at all, this would be an ideal spot to show it. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics with the main gamble going to No Hang Charlie.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: X
Use: 1-Park Avenue; 2-Dream of Jeanne
Forecast: Park Avenue was a bit disappointing when a well-beaten second as the 7/5 favorite in a similar maiden main track miler for fillies and mares at Del Mar last month but the J. Sadler-trained daughter of Quality Road lands an ideal spot to make amends in a shallow affair that drew just a field of five. From her rail post under F. Part she’ll most likely employ gate to wire tactics. Dream of Jeanne, fourth in her debut in the same race our top pick exits, wound up three lengths behind ‘Avenue but with that bit of experience behind her as every right to step forward and pose a threat. The J. Shirriffs barn showed good stats with the second-time starter angle, and with the addition of blinkers and with V. Espinoza riding her back the daughter of American Pharoah looks like the one to fear most. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
Notable Workouts
Park Avenue (October 17, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01h). Grade: B
Was far off the rail while breezing throughout to be even but best with older stable mate Southern Horse (same time) for J. Sadler, plenty left late, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :36.3. Has shown a tendency to lose her steam in the final furlong of her races so far but appears to be improving on that front based on recent workouts and could be set for a career top effort vs. older maiden fillies and mares.
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Dream of Jeanne (October 18, Santa Anita, 4f, :50.4h). Grade: C+
No blinkers (scheduled to add them in next race) but apparently needs the hood based on this half mile drill. Was pulling early and getting out most of the way (similar to her debut) while hard held, splits of :24.3 and :50.4 on our watches. Daughter of American Pharoah has plenty of natural ability but needs to figure things about. Perhaps the addition of blinkers will help her focus.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Sauls Call; 6-Tizlightning
Forecast: Trainer S. Miyadi holds the aces in this starter optional claiming turf sprint for juveniles, with Sauls Call the likely choice and one to beat event though he just failed at 40 cents on the dollar in a similar affair on the main track three weeks ago. The son of Stay Thirsty had a terrific training track workout since raced, and most horses that breeze well on that surface like grass, so this juvenile gelding should, too. He looks like the controlling speed and will take some catching if he shakes loose early without pressure. Tizlightning won at first asking in good style with a number that compares favorable with Sauls Call and if he can produce any kind of forward move the son of Stanford could be a threat right back. Drawn comfortably outside, he projects to enjoy a soft stalking trip, though it must be noted that K. Frey, who was aboard in his debut win, jumps off to ride Sauls Call.
Notable Workouts:
Sauls Call (October 23, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h TT). Grade: A-
Terrific work, best we’ve ever seen him look in solo five-furlong training track drill, breezing to the top in :23.3 and :36.1 before finishing strongly down the lane without undue pressure, up in :59.3, something left late. Good mover should handle the turf if asked (most good workers on the training track do). Juvenile colt has starter’s allowance conditions.
View Workout Video
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RACE 6: Post: 3:34 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Convince; 4-Perfect Ice Storm; 5-Lady Robin
Forecast: We’ll spread three-deep in this $12,500 claiming main track miler for older fillies and mares but otherwise sit it out. Bay Area shipper Convince is a first-off-the-claim play for J. Wong (as massive 33% with this angle) and gets a huge break in the weights with the switch to good bug boy D. Herrera while showing speed figures that make her a solid fit against this group despite the two level raise in class. Drawn comfortably inside, the daughter of Liaison has a good stalking style and a prior win over the Santa Anita main track, so we’re expecting a major effort from the veteran six-year-old mare. Perfect Ice Storm and Lady Robin also are making their first starts for new connections and could produce a forward move as well. The former, a two-time winner over this track and with back speed figures that are good enough to win at this level, was a beaten choice for $10,000 when a distance second last time out but should enjoy an ideal stalking trip in a race that projects to have very soft early splits. The latter, in the frame in 12 of 18 career starts, is an honest sort that seems certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics. If not respected, the P. Aguirre-trained filly could take this field a very long way.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:02 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Bold Voyager; 3-Harbor Sky
Forecast: Harbor Skye is lightly-raced with improving form and rising speed figures for the hot D. O’Neill outfit, and after a sharp maiden $20,000 victory over this track and distance three weeks ago the son of Majestic Harbor looks well-spotted to win right back in this restricted (nw-2) S16,000 seller. Based on our pace projection he’ll likely settle in an ideal stalking position and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. Bold Voyager returns to dirt, takes a realistic class drop and is solid in the speed figure department. The S. Knapp-trained gelding should be prominent throughout and will be quite dangerous with a repeat of his maiden claiming win two races back.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:29 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-Liberal; 6-Luck of the Draw; 8-Irish Heatwave; 9-Fly to Mars
Forecast: Any one of the five listed above can win this starter’s allowance turf miler with their best effort, so we’ll pass the race other than to spread heavily in rolling exotic play. Fly to Mars may deserve a very slight edge on top, but with some reservations. We’re not crazy about the extreme outside draw with the rail at 30 feet, so F. Prat will have to work out a trip, but if he can mange to drop over, tuck in, get some cover and produce him late this veteran son of Ministers Wild Cat can regain his winning form. Irish Heatwave lost a toughie when worn down late in a $32,000 claimer at Del Mar last month and today goes for new connections while being protected in a sign of confidence. The M. Puype-trained gelding can win on the front end but might be most effective if held up early and likely will get that type of ride from U. Rispoli. Luck of the Draw looked quite sharp winning from a lesser field on dirt here just six days ago and is wheeled back by hot trainer D. O’Neill while moving up in class and switching to turf. The quick turnaround is a bit concerning but this son of Lookin At Lucky can handle the law and just earned a career top speed figure ,so we’ll consider him dangerous and include him on our ticket. Liberal is worth tossing in somewhere as well. Twice a winner over the Santa Anita turf course and reunited with “win rider” D. Van Dyke, the P. Gallagher-trained gelding has been on the lead and fading in recent races but with patient handling today could easily return to top form at a decent price. Stage Ready is a first-off-the-claim for J. Mullins and turned in a very nice workout on the training track six days ago for his new connections. He’ll be a good price and is worth including somewhere on your ticket.
Notable Workouts:
Stage Ready (October 23, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h TT). Grade: B
Looked quite good for new trainer J. Mullins in solo training track drill, splits of :23.3, :35.2 and 1:00.1 on our watches while holding an unidentified shorter worker (joined in at the top of the lane) at bay before galloping out with something left. Appears to have perked up following the $40,000 claim and should produce a forward move next time out.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:02 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Lilly Babe; 4-Sally Stanford; 5-Half Past Twelve
Forecast: The finale is a starter optional claiming sprint for juvenile fillies. Lilly Babe, undefeated in two starts with rising speed figures, looks well-spotted to continue her winning ways in a race that sets up nicely for her off-the pace style. She’ll likely get outrun again in this event but with the quick but fainted-hearted Sally Stanford ensuring a fast pace this daughter of Empire Way should have every chance to wear down the leaders in the final stages. Half Past Twelve didn’t break that well and then, after moving up to press the pace, weakened in the lane to wind up a disappointing third as the odds-on favorite vs. similar at Los Alamitos last month. She’s trained well since and has a big look if she can repeat that quality of her runaway maiden claiming score two races back. Sally Stanford will have the lead and take them as far as she can. It’s always hold-your-breath time with her in the final sixteenth of a mile but a recent training track workout was good and provides hope that she’ll finish better than she has been.
Notable Workouts:
Sally Stanford (October 24, Santa Anita,4f, :48h TT). Grade: B-
Broke off a couple of lengths behind Miss Bellatrix (4f, :48.2h TT) and managed to prove best under mild coaxing through the lane, winding up a neck in front with splits of :24.2 and :47.4 on our watches, rather nice in the closing stages. Though she’s always been suspect under pressure in the final furlong, perhaps she’s learning to relax a bit. Will be curious to see how much improvement, if any, she displays next time out.
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Half Past Twelve (October 22, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h). Grade: B-
In company inside Bold Choice (5f, 1:00.2h), breaking off a few lengths in front and then holding that one off by more than a length while being ridden through the lane, decent enough for S. Knapp, final half mile in :24 flat and :48.3 on our watches. Disappointed at Los Alamitos when a weakening third at 4/5 but is better than that and is worth another look in a similar starter’s allowance sprint at Santa Anita.
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