Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds. Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
A=Highest degree of confidence. B=Solid Play. C=Least preferred, or pass. Top selection indicated in bold-face
FIRST RACE (2:00 PT) – GRADE: B+
Single: 1-You Missed It
Juvenile fillies usher in the Thursday eight-race program. #1 You Missed It previewed in a blazing 9 4/5 seconds at the OBS March Sale and then brought $75,000 from the Nyquist connections. The daughter of Lookin At Lucky has trained very well since arriving in California, and if she doesn’t make any mistakes from her inside draw, the Doug O’Neill-trained filly will be difficult to outrun. Let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to her 4-1 morning line.
SECOND RACE (2:33 PT) – GRADE: C
Use: 2-Adios Princess; 3-Olotta Shaken
The second race, a mile main track affair for $16,000 claiming 3-year-old fillies, attracted just five runners and none of them, to be honest, are trustworthy. #2 Adios Princess seeks her third straight score but is dropping from starter’s allowance $40,000 after being claimed for $40,000 in February, not exactly the healthiest of patterns. If she has one good one left, she’ll be hard to beat but at a short price you really don’t want any “ifs.” #3 Olotta Shaken, away for nearly two months, returns in a soft spot but is clearly a need-the-lead type and with Adios Princess stretching out for the first time and drawn inside, the front-end could very well be taken. None of the others inspire, so you can either use these two in rolling exotic play, buy the race, or pass it altogether.
THIRD RACE (3:06 PT) – GRADE: B+
Single: 6-Brookes All Mine
#6 Brookes All Mine returns off a nearly nine month layoff waiver protected in the third race, a maiden $50,000 claiming turf sprint for fillies and mares. She finished a strong runner-up in her only prior outing, was claimed by trainer Ray Bell, and returns in a soft spot with a series of workouts that should have her fit and ready. With Rafael Bejarano taking the call and in a field without much speed, she looks quite capable of controlling this race from gate to wire. At 2-1 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
FOURTH RACE (3:39 PT) – GRADE: B
Use: 3-Iancol; 7-Commander Lute
The fourth race is a $16,000 restricted (nw-3) main track miler affair. #3 Iancol didn’t get the best of rides or trips when wide throughout vs. first-level allowance foes over this track and distance last time out and is better than his line will show. This rather substantial drop in class should produce a win for a gelding who always has liked this particular main track. Hopefully, this time Martin Garcia will locate the rail somewhere along the way. #7 Commander Lute can be included in rolling exotic play as a back-up or saver; the Tim Yakteen-trained gelding does his best on the front end and if he can secure a soft trip up front he could take this field a long way.
FIFTH RACE (4:12 PT) – GRADE: B-
Use: 2-Entebbe; 4-Summer Lady; 5-Scattagirl
The fifth race, a starter’s allowance turf miler for fillies and mares, requires a spread. #5 Scattagirl finally broke her maiden – doing so vs. maiden $40,000 foes over this course and distance earlier this month – and may be capable of scoring right back based purely on speed figures. With Flavien Pratt committed to #4 Summer Lady, Tyler Baze picks up the mount for trainer Leonard Powell and should have this daughter of Scat Daddy within striking range throughout. Summer Lady is the one to beat. In the money in her last pair, she’s a fit on figures and should find herself in an ideal pace-stalking spot. #2 Entebbe broke her maiden at Los Alamitos in her 11th career start, doing so from off the pace, and should produce enough of a late bid to at least hit the board with this group. Her chances increase should a faster than par pace develop.
SIXTH RACE (4:44 PT) – GRADE: B-
Use: 6-Star of Munster; 7-Reckless Charm
We’ll double the sixth race, an abbreviated sprint for $40,000 claiming sophomore fillies. #6 Star of Munster earned a career top speed figure when winning a $50,000 seller at Los Alamitos last month, her fifth score in 10 lifetime starts. The class drop following a victory isn’t usually a good sign, but in this case it would appear trainer Robertino Diodoro is simply placing her when he thinks she can win. #7 Reckless Charm, freshened for two months and dropping to her lowest level, has won on this main track in the past, should draft into a comfortable pace-stalking position, and have every chance to return to her best form.
SEVENTH RACE (5:15 PT) – GRADE: B+
Use: 5-Makena; 6-Two Taps
Second-level allowance fillies and mares meet over a mile and one-sixteenth in the featured seventh race, with the main competition drawn to the outside. #6 Two Taps has a steadily improving pattern and should be dangerous on raise; the daughter of Tapit has a good stalking style, retains Smith, and is a fit on figures. Both of her career wins have come over this track. #5 Makena earned a sharp speed figure in winning an entry-level allowance affair last time out after a clever maiden score the previous month; she’s a lightly-raced daughter of Pioneerof the Nile with further upside. A strong, healthy work tab at San Luis Rey Downs for trainer Scott Hansen indicates she’s ready to produce a forward move. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Makena.
EIGHTH RACE (5:39 PT) – GRADE: B-
Use: 5-Coltonspace; 9-Concorde’s Star
The finale is a maiden $30,000 claiming sprint for 3-year-olds with the huge class dropper #9 Concorde’s Star the likely choice and one to beat. A decent runner-up in straight maiden company in his only start last September at Los Alamitos, the son of Concord Point returns unprotected, not exactly a ringing endorsement for his long term prospects. However, the works indicate fitness and anything close to his one prior outing will beat this field. We’ll also toss in the first-timer #5 Coltonspace, a colt bred for speed (Stormin Fever) with a decent series of workouts. There may be value here at or near his morning line of 10-1.
