The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
DEL MAR
Sunday, July 30, 2017
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Mining Diamonds; 7-Empress Deelites
Forecast: Mining Diamonds shows up in a claimer for the first and the class relief she’ll enjoy could make the winning difference. She’s hardly one to trust, but at this extended sprint trip she should be within striking range and have every chance. Empress Deelites overcame trouble to win a slow heat in her debut; she’s likely to produce a forward move with that effort behind her and from her cozy outside post will enjoy clear sailing from off the pace. In a weak race, we’ll prefer these two but if you find the need to spread, go right ahead.
RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Painting Corners
Forecast: Painting Corners should be too quick for these, especially at this abbreviated sprint distance of five furlongs. The lightly raced and improving daughter of Pleasant Strike earned strong figures in both of here runaway downhill turf sprint wins at Santa Anita and much the same can be expected right back, though she is hooking more zip and a tougher group today. At anywhere close to her morning line of 3-1, she’s a play in the exotics and in the straight pool.
RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: C
Use: 3-Majestic Diva; 8-Argumentative; 10-Bona Fide Image
Forecast: Bottom-rung maiden claiming fillies and mares sprint seven furlongs in what has to be a spread race for rolling exotic players. Argumentative finished an even but non-threatening third in her debut at Los Alamitos and probably will move forward a bit today. In a soft field, she looks like the top pick by default. Bona Fide Image will have every chance from her cozy outside draw and will grind away from start to finish. Majestic Diva shortens up to what might be her best distance and will be a decent price for low profile connections. Anything goes here.
RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Miss Sunset; 8-Dreamy Gal
Forecast: Miss Sunset is the logical favorite with plenty in her favor but she’ll have to beat her best to handle Dreamy Gal. The latter, away for 11 months following a scintillating (and highly-rated) maiden score over this track as a two-year-old, has trained in super fashion for her comeback and could be an even better type this time around. We’ll use both in rolling exotic play but then press significantly with Dreamy Gal on top.
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Encumbered
Forecast: Encumbered had a tall task when debuting in the Santa Anita Juvenile Stakes in a race that was dominated by stablemate Run Away but gets a much easier assignment today and looks well-spotted to earn his diploma. He’s bred for distance and should have no issue with turf, and following a very sharp recent workout the Simon Callaghan-trained son of Violence clearly is headed in the right direction.
RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Taylor and Burton; 6-Katherine
Forecast: Katherine and Taylor and Burton were expensive 2-year-old in training sales purchases this spring and both are very bright prospects. Katherine gets preference on top; she may be a tad quicker than ‘Burton and looks cranked up and ready to win right now. ‘Burton is a filly with plenty of quality and while she might be a down-the-road type she’s definitely worth including on a ticket or two. We’ll be quite surprised if the winner isn’t one or the other.
Sorry! Video analysis not available for this race.
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Newsman; 8-Cimple Man
Forecast: This is a typical grass grab bag for second-level allowance foes and you can expect a cavalry charge from the top of the lane to the wire. Newsman has a very good turn of foot when he’s covered up and produced late and we’re expecting he’ll get that kind of ride from Nakatani. This shorter trip should make his late kick more effective. Cimple Man earned a speed figure two back that will make him hard to beat if repeated today; he’s probably better than his last race shows and switches to Bejarano. These are the two we’ll prefer but it’s a scramble and nothing really would surprise us.
Sorry! Video analysis not available for this race.
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: X
Use: 2-Vale Dori; 3-Stellar Wind
Forecast: We’re not going to try to separate these two; Stellar Wind just edged Vale Dori in the Beholder Mile at Santa Anita but both ran superbly and it wouldn’t shock us if ‘Dori reversed the decision today. The Baffert-trained mare is clearly the controlling speed and always is dangerous in that role. ‘Wind is perfect at Del Mar and won this race last year. Good race to watch.
RACE 9: Post 6:10 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Rye Patch; 3-Guggenheim; 9-Malko
Forecast: The finale is a messy turf affair with several contenders and just as many question marks. Rye Patch, claimed for $50,000 two races back, shows up for half that amount today after being a voided claim in an optional $40,000 affair last time out when off the board as the favorite. That’s not exactly a healthy pattern, but if the Sadler-trained gelding has one more good one left he’ll be tough over a course he’s been known to like. The negative is that he’s most comfortable as the controlling speed but there are a few others – most notably Pound Piece drawn on the rail – that also employ that same style. Guggenheim could be a late threat; he’s removing blinkers and ran well in a slightly tougher spot two runs back. At 10-1 on the morning line you have to use him. Malko has a prior win over the course and if a pace meltdown develops – certainly a possibility – he could make some serious noise in the final furlong.
SARATOGA
Sunday, July 30, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: X
Single: 3-Terra Promessa
RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1a-Jet Majesty; 6-Frozen Hannah
RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Dunk a Din; 6-Augie’s Coming; 7-Linkappleyard
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Mister Maestro; 8-Bookman; 9-Heldatgunpoint
RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 8-Scary Not Scared
RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade:
Use: 6-I’m the Captain Now; 7-Captain Hardship; 8-Focus Group
RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 6-War Bond; 7-Neoclassic; 8-Generous Kitten
RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Nobody Move; 7-Syndergaard; 8-Cause for Surprise
RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1a-Mambo At the Gym; 4-Kantune; 9-Portando;
RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Pioneer Spirit; 4-Bookew Bucks; 9-Tu Exageres
