The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
DEL MAR
Sunday, July 23, 2017
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 6-Ladybug; 8-Krissys Manicure
Forecast: Ladybug has trained exceptionally well for her debut and will be hard to catch if she leaves with her field. This daughter of Medaglia d’Oro could be a very good filly. Krissys Manicure has the benefit of a prior run – she was a troubled third behind subsequent Landaluce Stakes winner Surrender Now – and goes from the rail to the outside.
RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Private Terrace; 6-Blooming Hannah
Forecast: Private Terrance obviously is for sale today; despite winning two of her last three outings vs. starter’s competition she’s no longer being protected. However, if she has one good one left she’s most likely to win again. Blooming Hannah is a perfect (1-for-1) routing – earning a career top speed figure in the process – and stretches out again after two solid recent efforts going short.
RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 5-Calculator; 7-Vyjack
Forecast: Calculator returned to winning form in a sharp downhill turf sprint earlier this month and since he did win a graded stakes races at this distance as a 3-year-old, the stretch out in trip shouldn’t be a concern. Vyjack is more than good enough to win if ready; he’s looked sharp in the morning for his first start since November but it’s possible he’s a race away from being spot on.
RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Red Lightning; 6-Little Juanito; 9-Way Gone
Forecast: This is a strong straight maiden sprint, so debuting Way Gone will need to be a good as his workouts suggest to win first time out. He finally makes it to the races half-way through his 4-year-old season for Baffert and will take some beating if he breaks sharply from his outside post. That 59 seconds gate workout over the track just four days ago was pretty awesome. Little Juanito was well-meant in his comeback but couldn’t handle future stakes star Pavel; before that he was second to American Anthem and today catches another potential smoker. Red Lightning has talent and gets blinkers so improvement is possible.
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Patentar; 6-Southern Freedom; 12-Wood Machine
Forecast: This is a deep and contentious race requiring a spread; use as many as you can afford to. Patentar is exiting a pair of graded stakes races and should enjoy today’s class relief. Zero-for-five lifetime over the Del Mar lawn isn’t encouraging, though. Southern Freedom also hasn’t had any luck over the local turf – he finished off the board in both of his prior starts – but he’s another who’s been facing tougher late and should go better against this group. Wood Machine came against slow fractions and finished strongly when third in a recent starter’s handicap race; if he can get some pace up front today he’ll be heard from late.
RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Super Duper Cooper; 3-The Union Forever; 9-Hard Arch
Forecast: Here’s what to like about Super Duper Cooper: he’s a first time gelding, he’s first time for a tag, he produced a forward move in his second career start, he’s worked well since his last outing, he’s drawn comfortably inside, and he switches to Baze. And he’s 15-1 on the morning line. Can he run? We’ll find out today. The Union Forever drops again in class and should be improve at this level – he’s a fit on numbers – and has winning connections. Hard Arch has hit the boards two of his last three starts, and earned a good number in his last start in what has proven to be a productive race. You have to use him.
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Enthrall; 7-Sircat Sally
Forecast: Sircat Sally is seven-for-seven lifetime with six stakes victories, three of them graded. We’re expecting her to win again, though after Arrogate yesterday nothing is guaranteed. Enthrall is an intriguing French invader fresh off the plane following what looks to be a clever win at Chantilly. She might be better than anything Sircat Sally has beaten so far. She’d better be.
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Prime Issue; 3-Superior Status; 6-Midnight Pleasure; 7-Blue Anchor
Forecast: This is a killer race for the level; it’ll require a stakes-quality number to win it. Prime Issue loves the Del Mar main track (he’s 3-for-6) and is fresh from a sizzling win at Santa Anita with a career top fig in what was his 37th career start. He’s most effective on the lead but will have to deal with other speed types today so his task won’t be easy. Blue Anchor also won his last start at Santa Anita in good style, though his figure wasn’t as flashy. He’s never been worse than second in four starts at Del Mar. Superior Status won his debut here last year like a real good prospect but then disappeared. He’s working like he’s ready but couldn’t have picked a tougher spot for a comeback. Midnight Pleasure may be the most dangerous of the closers.
RACE 9: Post 6:10 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Sonneteer; 3-Indoctrination; 10-New Dancer
Forecast: Hard to believe that Sonneteer is still a maiden after12 starts when you consider he’s twice graded stakes-placed and ran in the Kentucky Derby. Today he tries turf for the first time; maybe that’s what he wants. Indoctrination is a sneaky Irish invader for clever connections. He just missed in his only start (over an all-weather surface) before being imported and should fit with these. New Dancer hasn’t shown much either in the morning or afternoon but gets Prat and is bred to move up a ton on turf. He’s the “other” D’Amato.
SARATOGA
Sunday, July 23, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Orbolution; 5-Miss Mo Mentum; 10-Our Girl Abby
RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Top Fortitude; 7-Scarf It Down
RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Mr Classical; 3-Weather Wise; 5-Uncle Mojo
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Phi Beta Express; 3-Main Road; 10-Rapid Red
RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Thebigfundamental; 2-Royal Posse
RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Thrice; 7-Prado Vision; 10-Cap’s View
RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Honor Way; 5-Courtmewithcarats; 6-Nisha
RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET. Grade: C
Use: 1-Table for Six; 4-About That Base; 5-Alabama Bound; 7-Sweet August Lady
RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Animal Appeal; 7-Nite Delite; 9-Miss Katie Mae
RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: X
Single: 2-Abel Tasman
RACE 11: Post 6:54 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 7-Bold Daddy; 11-Prognostication; 12-Major Force
