The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
DEL MAR
Saturday, July 22, 2017
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Golden Atlantic; 2-Mr. Hale; 6-Giro Candito
Forecast: Top to bottom a chance in this restricted extended claiming sprint. Golden Atlantic (first off the claim for G. Stute) might find himself as the controlling speed if he leaves cleanly from the rail, but the extra half-furlong may be problematic. Mr. Hale should draft into an ideal stalking position and have every chance; the question is whether he’s good enough. Giro Candito is perfect (1-for-1) on dirt, drops to his lowest level ever and may be the best of the closing types. In a spread race, go as deep as you can afford to.
RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Kaabraaj; 6-Cherubin
Forecast: Cherubin demolished a slightly softer field in his comeback last month and moves up a notch while trying for a repeat score. However, he’s always been much more effective at Santa Anita than Del Mar, so there’s question whether he can duplicate that performance today. If he can, he’ll win. Kaabraaj shows up for a tag after tackling stakes foes up north. A repeat of his race three back earned a giant speed figure so there may be some value here at his morning line of 8-1.
RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Neighborhood Bully; 8-Roaring Fork; 9-Bank Walker
Forecast: Roaring Fork has trained well enough to win a high-price maiden claimer and is worth a play, though the Puype barn rarely wins with first time starters. This colt might be the exception to the rule. Bank Walker is a first-timer from San Luis Rey Downs with a decent series of drills and warrants consideration, as does Neighborhood Bully, a distant fourth in a powerful race at Los Alamitos two weeks ago and being wheeled back quickly against much softer competition. He’s eligible to improve a bunch with that bit of experience in his back pocket.
RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: X
Single: 6-Ashleyluvssugar
Forecast: Ashleyluvssugar finished a strong second in this same race last year behind Midnight Storm and there’s nobody in today’s field quite that good, so we’re expecting the California-bred gelding to follow up his smart score in the Charles Whittingham Stakes with another graded stakes tally. He’ll likely draft into an ideal second flight, stalking spot and then exert his superiority when Stevens calls on him at the head of the lane. He seems sure to go lower than his morning line of 7/5.
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 7-Sunday Nap; 9-Trapalanda
Forecast: Trapalanda is the default top selection in a chaotic maiden claiming sprint in which nothing would surprise. The Ron Ellis-trained colt has a decent work tab – not great – and may prove strongest from off the pace in a field with suspect early peed. Sunday Nap has plenty of zip and may be the quickest of the quick, but that final furlong might prove a bit dicey. These are the two we’ll prefer but a spread strategy might be the way to go.
RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade:
Use: 5-Marckie’s Water; 4-Sorry Erik
Forecast: Marckie’s Water just won the Snow Chief Stakes but is eligible to this first-level allowance event because that race was restricted to state-bred runners. Improving with every start and continuing to impress in the morning, the son of Tribal Rule looks capable of producing the last run once again. Sorry Erik has a race two back that charts well here and there was nothing wrong with his fourth place performance in the Ohio Derby in his most recent start.
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Bahamian; 9-Gracida
Forecast: Bahamian acts like a stone runner and if he leaves with his field the son of Freedom Child should be very hard to outrun. Gracida was a $400,000 March sale purchase and has done everything right in the a.m. for O’Neill. From his cozy outside draw, he should draft into a perfect pace-stalking position. It’ll be surprising if the winner isn’t one of these two; Bahamian is the likely choice and the one to beat.
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 9-You’re a Goat; 10-Girl Downstairs; 11-Ok Doll
Forecast: A typical grass grab bag in which trips probably will decide the winner in a field with several possibilities. Girl Downstairs flew home but was too late when a strong second at this level at Santa Anita recently and if she enjoys clear sailing today she’ll be more than capable of wearing down the leaders. Ok Doll should be free of trouble wither good pace-stalking style; she’s run well fresh in the past and her only prior start over the Del Mar turf course was excellent. You’re a Goat will be running on strongly late but this deep-closer will need some help up front and good racing luck at this shorter one mile trip.
RACE 9: Post 6:10 PT. Grade: X
Single: 3-Arrogate
Forecast: Arrogate has bigger fish to fry down but won’t need to be totally cranked up to beat this field, especially under his very favorable weight assignment of “only” 126 lbs. His real goal this season is the Pacific Classic next month and this race will serve as an ideal prep.
RACE 10: Post 6:40 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Borg; 7-Lucky Soul; 12-Ample Sufficiency
Forecast: Borg has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern and should love both the added distance and the switch to grass. The son of Candy Ride finally gets off the rail and catches what appears to be a moderate field for the level. That’s a good gambling number if you can get close to his morning line of 6-1. Lucky Soul and Ample Sufficiency both exit the same race and both ran well with every right to step forward. They’re the best of the closers and are worth including in rolling exotic play.
SARATOGA
Saturday, July 22, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: X
Use: 1-Mr. Crow; 2-Marshall Plan
RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Daddy’s Home; 4-Voodoo Song; 6-Tipsy Kitten
RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1a-Johnny Action; 5-Untamed Domain
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Rockport Kat; 4-Shuffle Up; 5-Double Whammy
RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Top Daddy; 5-Get the Facts; 8-Machismo
RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 9-Born for a Storm; 12-Build to Suit; 13-Gucci Factor
RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Grand Candy; 5-Canadian Flyer; 9-Partly Mocha
RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Volatility Index; 5-Pricedtoperfection; 10-Stella Rose
RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Psychoanalyze; 4-Free Drop Billy; 7-Direct Dial
RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: X
Use: 2-Antonoe; 3-Lady Eli
RACE 11: Post 6:54 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Chiltern Street; 5-Southside Warrior; 12-Shalako
