The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
DEL MAR
Wednesday, August 2, 2017
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 5-My Perfect Gem
Forecast: My Perfect Gem has much in his favor and looks like a logical rolling exotic single. He’s a first-time gelding making his second career following a decent debut runner-up effort vs. similar, and he should appreciate today’s extra half-furlong.
RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Small Town Hero; 5-Savrola
Forecast: Small Town Hero drops to his lowest level and appears well-spotted for a much improved performance. He lands the good inside post and seems likely to attempt gate-to-wire tactics. On pure numbers he’s strictly the one to beat. Savrola is a dangerous Bay Area invader with a good stalking style and numbers that fit. In the money in seven of nine career starts, the son of Dixie Chatter lands Bejarano, and with another forward move should give ‘Hero a serious challenge.
RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Bombardeo; 7-Desert Domination
Forecast: Bombardeo was ready to run in early June at Santa Anita but missed some time and was sent to San Luis Rey Downs. Recent workouts at that training center have been impressive, so it would appear this son of Violence is fit and ready for a big effort in an unclassified field. There’s no reason he won’t like turf. Desert Domination, another SLRD shipper, hails from a barn that does very well with debut runners. With Prat riding for Miller, this son of the first crop stallion Soldat is worth including in rolling exotic play.
RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Thorpe d’Oro
Forecast: Although he was shockingly beaten at 1/9 at Los Alamitos in his most recent outing, Thorpe d’Oro actually produced a forward move according to the numbers in that loss, so perhaps we shouldn’t be too harsh. There will be no excuses today, however. The O’Neill-trained colt remains well regarded, retains Bejarano and should be comfortably placed on or near the lead throughout. He’s 5/2 on the morning line but we suspect will leave considerably lower.
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Dreamarcher; 6-Sheeza Milky Way; 7-Belvoir Bay
Forecast: This may be just an allowance but it looks very much like a listed stakes and has three main contenders in the seven runner field. Sheeza Milky Way failed to make any impact in the hotly-contested Wilshire Stakes-G3 in her most recent outing but she has a prior win over this course and this class drop should help her get back on the beam. Belvoir Bay missed as the favorite in a downhill turf sprint in her first outing in eight months in late June but is likely to move forward with that effort behind her and could easily establish the pace on the stretch out and keep on going. She’s reunited with Prat, who won her way back in December of 2015 in what likely was her best career effort. Dreamarcher was sharp in victory against a lesser field up north in her last outing and could be a strong late threat in a race that projects to have a fast early pace.
RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Li’l Grazen
Forecast: Li’l Grazen has several winning angles in her past performance chart and appears to offer considerable value at 8-1 on the morning line. In a sign of confidence, she’s moving way up in class in her first start for Carava, who took her for $30,000 in mid-June and returns her for $62,500. She also sports the always-dangerous route-to-sprint angle, has a sharp recent drill over the track, and speed figures that make her a solid fit.
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Show It N Moe
Forecast: Show It N Moe has produced a forward move in her last two starts, most recently winning a strong maiden state-bred event for fun with plenty left in fast time. She tackles stakes types today but should be more than up to the task. The extra half-furlong should only help, and it may be significant that Roman opts for her over Family Girl, who he won with by more than seven lengths at Los Alamitos last month. At 4-1 on the morning line, ‘Moe appears to offer excellent value both in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play.
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Shazara
Forecast: Shazara has an improving pattern in her current form cycle, back numbers that are good enough to win at this level, and two excellent races over the Del Mar turf course on her resume. She lands the good rail, catches a below par field, and stretches out again after a solid effort in a downhill turf sprint vs. similar last month. A bullet blowout just a few days ago is another positive factor for the Sherlock-trained daughter of El Corredor, who looks appealing as a straight play and rolling exotic single.
SARATOGA
Wednesday, August 2, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: X
Pass-No Play
RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Top Brass
RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Carbon Data; 8-Astounding; 12-King of Spades
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Call Her Karma; 3-Lady Paradime; 6-Northern Screamer
RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Herecomesyourman; 6-Harlan’s Hunch; 8-Wingman
RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Presumptious; 3-Tiz Super; 7-Divine Union
RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 7-Nevisian Sky
RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Church Social; 5-Violet Blue; 9-Lucky Long
RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Carina Mia; 6-Birdatthewire
RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Imperfect Union; 7-March X Press; 9-Purely Lucky
